Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Fridays close left in the middle ground between 63.80 and 61.64
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-14 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is shifting from a "shortage saga" to a "spreadsheet reality check," with U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd and OPEC+ poised to unwind cuts. Demand is projected to face a surplus of ~3.7 mbpd into 2026, with gasoline stocks +4.4% above the 5-year average. Inventories are only -3.4% below the average, indicating comfort rather than scarcity. Geopolitical tensions are easing, suggesting that the current premium is more political than based on supply fears. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and OPEC+ decisions as we navigate these waters!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.75
$0.23
WTI:
$62.89
$0.05
Spread:
$4.86
(Brent premium of $4.86)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$62.89
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.76
MA(20): $62.68
Current Price is 62.89, 9 day MA 63.76, 20 day MA 62.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.114
Signal: 1.2726
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.88
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.88 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 369,303
Avg (20d): 364,664
Ratio: 1.01
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 43.38
%D: 53.13
Stochastic %K: 43.38, %D: 53.13. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.03
+DI: 19.88
-DI: 15.3
ADX: 30.03 (+DI: 19.88, -DI: 15.3). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -56.62
Williams %R: -56.62 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.38
Middle: 62.68
Lower: 58.99
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.38, Middle: 62.68, Lower: 58.99
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.75, change $+0.23. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.89, change $+0.05. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.86 (Brent premium of $4.86). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.75
0.23
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.89
0.05
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.86
Brent premium of $4.86
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also declined by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread decreased by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation in December, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook. Despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets, the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, and is expected to accelerate to 3.2% in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and ongoing adjustments to monetary policies in major economies. The growth outlooks for key regions are as follows:
- US: 2.1% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, forecast to rise to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD maintaining a growth of +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is also positive, with a growth of +0.1 mb/d in both years. However, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. Contributing factors include:
- Product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels
- Decline in European product flows to West Africa
- Increased domestic product supplies in Southeast Asia
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong mid-year gains. Key movements include:
- VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to long-haul demand
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe fell by 12%, m-o-m
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m
In contrast, the clean tanker market saw further upward momentum, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m. Key regional trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Increased crude imports, declining product imports, and rising product exports
- Japan: Crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d
- China: Crude imports surged to an average of 12.4 mb/d, a +9% increase, m-o-m
- India: Crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, reaching 2,840 mb. Key insights include:
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago
- Days of forward cover increased by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, with a forecast of 43.6 mb/d for 2027. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
43
Last Updated:
2026-02-14 23:53:26
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Crude Prices Slip as Geopolitical Risks Ease Barchart
- Geopolitical Risks Support Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- WTI Climbs Past $65 on Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.88
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.05%)
Weekly:
0.06 (0.06%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
20.6
Daily:
-0.22 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
3.24 (18.66%)
GOLD
5022.0
Daily:
98.3 (2.0%)
Weekly:
-28.9 (-0.57%)
COPPER
5.79
Daily:
0.02 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-0.15 (-2.57%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$62.89
Closest Support:
$62.09
1.27% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
1.8% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-14 23:53:29
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | $62.86 | $60.1 | $65.62 |
| 2026-02-15 | $62.78 | $60.02 | $65.54 |
| 2026-02-16 | $62.95 | $60.19 | $65.71 |
| 2026-02-17 | $63.0 | $60.24 | $65.76 |
| 2026-02-18 | $63.01 | $60.25 | $65.77 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2026-02-14), reaching $62.86.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market shows a bullish sentiment with managed money positioning reflecting a strengthening trend. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.86 indicates a premium for Brent, suggesting potential opportunities for arbitrage as global supply dynamics differ from U.S. supply.
Key support levels may be identified around the recent lows, while resistance levels could be found near the previous highs in the $62-$63 range for WTI. Traders should remain vigilant for volatility, particularly as geopolitical risks fluctuate, influencing price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels, which have shown a slight increase in crude stocks, potentially affecting pricing strategies. With a positive market sentiment, it may be prudent to leverage this environment for hedging strategies, particularly against potential price drops that could arise from increased production from non-DoC countries.
The forecasted 1.4 mb/d growth in global oil demand in 2026 remains unchanged, indicating stable market conditions. Producers should align their production planning with these demand forecasts to optimize operational efficiencies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The current market dynamics, with a strong sentiment, suggest that prices may trend upward, impacting procurement strategies.
Additionally, geopolitical factors and inventory levels present supply reliability risks. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging against price spikes, especially given the backdrop of increased crude imports in regions such as China and Japan, which could tighten supply further.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with bullish fundamentals driven by steady global demand growth and a tightening supply outlook. The balance of supply and demand remains favorable for producers, with a forecasted increase in demand for DoC crude.
However, the geopolitical sentiment remains a concern, as indicated by mixed news sentiment scores. Analysts should closely monitor these developments as they could shift market dynamics. The current positioning of managed money traders indicates a potential for price volatility, suggesting that market outlooks could shift rapidly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.