Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Fridays close left in the middle ground between 63.80 and 61.64
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-15 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is shifting from a "shortage saga" to a "spreadsheet reality check" as U.S. production hovers near 13.7 mbpd, while OPEC+ considers supply increases. Demand projections from the IEA suggest a potential surplus of ~3.7 mbpd by 2026, and gasoline stocks are 4.4% above the 5-year average. With U.S. crude inventories only 3.4% below average, the market appears balanced, relying more on supply growth than scarcity fears. Unless geopolitical tensions flare, expect prices to reflect these fundamentals.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.75
$0.23
WTI:
$62.89
$0.05
Spread:
$4.86
(Brent premium of $4.86)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$62.94
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.73
MA(20): $62.86
Current Price is 62.94, 9 day MA 63.73, 20 day MA 62.86
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.0039
Signal: 1.2189
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.05
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.05 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,695
Avg (20d): 359,359
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 33.96
%D: 39.97
Stochastic %K: 33.96, %D: 39.97. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.84
+DI: 19.64
-DI: 15.0
ADX: 28.84 (+DI: 19.64, -DI: 15.0). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -66.04
Williams %R: -66.04 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.25
Middle: 62.86
Lower: 59.47
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.25, Middle: 62.86, Lower: 59.47
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.75, change $+0.23. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.89, change $+0.05. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.86 (Brent premium of $4.86). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.75
0.23
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.89
0.05
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.86
Brent premium of $4.86
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline of $2.57/b, m-o-m, averaging $61.96/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply–demand outlook. Despite ongoing selling pressure in futures markets, the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly, while the forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.15 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to increase by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by around 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years. However, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 238 tb/d in December, averaging about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December due to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand pressures. The decline in European product flows to West Africa also contributed to the drop in margins. In Southeast Asia, rising domestic product supplies and firm availability from the Middle East weighed on refining profitability.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained robust due to continued demand for long-haul flows. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route declined by 12%, m-o-m, while Suezmax rates fell by 12% on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route. Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline of 4%, m-o-m. In contrast, clean tanker market rates saw upward momentum as refineries ramped up operations, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route rising by 14%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by nearly 10%, m-o-m. In OECD Europe, crude imports rose, while product imports declined. Japan's crude imports increased to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional demand. China's crude imports surged to an average of 12.4 mb/d, a 9% increase, while India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, reaching 2,840 mb. Crude stocks increased by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, which is 39.1 mb higher than a year ago but 20.7 mb below the five-year average. Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, demand is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026 and 2027:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward, as the demand for DoC crude is projected to exceed non-DoC supply, highlighting the importance of cooperation among OPEC members.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
29
Last Updated:
2026-02-15 23:53:45
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
96.97
Daily:
0.09 (0.09%)
Weekly:
0.17 (0.18%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
20.6
Daily:
-0.22 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
3.24 (18.66%)
GOLD
4995.4
Daily:
-26.6 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
-8.4 (-0.17%)
COPPER
5.75
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.69%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-2.43%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$62.94
Closest Support:
$62.09
1.35% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
1.72% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-15 23:53:47
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | $62.87 | $60.11 | $65.63 |
| 2026-02-15 | $62.78 | $60.02 | $65.54 |
| 2026-02-16 | $62.96 | $60.2 | $65.72 |
| 2026-02-17 | $63.01 | $60.25 | $65.77 |
| 2026-02-18 | $63.01 | $60.25 | $65.77 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2026-02-14), reaching $62.87.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent market data indicates a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. The Brent-WTI spread currently stands at $4.86, reflecting ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility given the fluctuating sentiment and the backwardation in forward curves, particularly for NYMEX WTI.
With managed money positioning showing a bullish trend, there may be short-term opportunities to capitalize on price movements. Key support levels can be identified around $57.87 (WTI) and $61.63 (Brent), while resistance could be observed near recent highs.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current crude inventory levels have implications for production planning, with OECD crude stocks at 1,346 mb, which is above the five-year average but still significantly below the 2015–2019 average. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with bearish market sentiment and fluctuating prices.
As demand for crude from DoC countries is forecasted to increase to 43.6 mb/d in 2027, producers should align their production strategies accordingly to meet this demand while being mindful of the geopolitical landscape that may affect operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as Brent and WTI prices remain under pressure. The geopolitical risks have eased, but ongoing inventory builds could lead to supply reliability risks that may affect procurement strategies.
With product inventories showing a decline, refineries may face increased costs, prompting a reassessment of hedging strategies to manage these fluctuations effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, exacerbated by recent price declines across major benchmarks. The combination of supply and demand dynamics indicates a potential shift towards a more cautious outlook, particularly as global economic growth remains steady but unremarkable.
Key drivers include stable demand growth in non-OECD countries and a slight recovery in managed money positioning, suggesting that while the market is currently under pressure, there may be opportunities for upward movement in the medium term. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels closely as these factors could significantly impact future price trajectories.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.