Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading shows a sideways move in between the two key pivot points of 61.64 and 63.80. Elevated trading is on fears on US increasing tension and bearish tension is on the renewed discussion of oil supply surplus.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-16 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating the treacherous waters of supply and demand, with U.S. production soaring near 13.7 mbpd and OPEC+ eyeing potential output increases. Despite gasoline stocks being 4.4% above the five-year average, geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-Iran talks, are adding a risk premium to prices. The market appears balanced, with a modest surplus anticipated into 2026, suggesting comfort rather than scarcity. Traders should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and inventory trends for future price direction.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.75
$0.23
WTI:
$62.89
$0.05
Spread:
$4.86
(Brent premium of $4.86)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$63.52
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.8
MA(20): $62.89
Current Price is 63.52, 9 day MA 63.8, 20 day MA 62.89
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.0501
Signal: 1.2281
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.96
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.96 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 70,559
Avg (20d): 362,502
Ratio: 0.19
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 44.78
%D: 43.58
Stochastic %K: 44.78, %D: 43.58. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 29.19
+DI: 21.06
-DI: 14.56
ADX: 29.19 (+DI: 21.06, -DI: 14.56). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -55.22
Williams %R: -55.22 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.29
Middle: 62.89
Lower: 59.49
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.29, Middle: 62.89, Lower: 59.49
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.75, change $+0.23. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.89, change $+0.05. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.86 (Brent premium of $4.86). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.75
0.23
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.89
0.05
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.86
Brent premium of $4.86
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In December, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $2.72/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $61.74/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract decreased by $2.03/b, m-o-m, to average $61.63/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $1.61/b, m-o-m, to average $57.87/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw a decline, dropping by $2.57/b, m-o-m, to average $61.96/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread narrowed by $0.42/b, m-o-m, to average $3.76/b in December. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation, indicating supportive physical crude market fundamentals and a positive short-term global supply-demand outlook, despite persistent selling pressure in futures markets. The forward curves for ICE Brent and GME Oman flattened further in December, m-o-m, while the backwardation in NYMEX WTI strengthened slightly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with an acceleration to 3.2% expected in 2027. This positive outlook is supported by normalization in global trade, fiscal support measures, and ongoing adjustments to monetary policies in major economies.
- US: 2.1% growth forecast for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth forecast for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth forecast for 2026, rising to 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth forecast for 2026, increasing to 1.5% in 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by around 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
- OECD: 0.1 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
- Non-OECD: 1.2 mb/d growth forecast for 2027
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production in 2026 is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. This trend is expected to continue into 2027, with similar growth forecasts.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.
- DoC crude production decreased by 238 tb/d in December, m-o-m, to average about 42.83 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
Refining margins dropped across all regions in December, following a sharp upward trend in previous months. The decline was attributed to product inventory builds, particularly for transport fuels, amid seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the Northern Hemisphere, European product flows to West Africa also contributed to the margin drop.
- Southeast Asia experienced rising domestic product supplies and softening export incentives.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in December after strong gains earlier in the year. VLCC spot freight rates dropped but remained strong due to continued demand for long-haul flows.
- Middle East-to-East route rates declined by 12%, m-o-m.
- Middle East-to-West route rates were down 11%, m-o-m.
- Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route fell 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax rates experienced a more moderate decline, with Cross-Med rates down 4%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates rose by 14% on the Middle East-to-East route, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In December, US crude imports remained stable at just under 6 mb/d, while crude exports increased by almost 10%, m-o-m.
- OECD Europe saw an increase in crude imports, while product imports declined.
- Japan's crude imports rose to 2.4 mb/d, supported by regional product demand.
- China's crude imports jumped to 12.4 mb/d, a gain of around 9%, m-o-m.
- India's crude imports remained above the five-year range at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary November 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 4.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,840 mb. This level is 77.6 mb higher than a year earlier and 0.3 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 4.1 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,346 mb, 39.1 mb higher than a year ago.
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,494 mb, 38.6 mb higher than a year ago.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to 62.2 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, demand for DoC crude is forecast to reach 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
28
Last Updated:
2026-02-16 23:53:54
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Oil on Track for Weekly Loss on Supply Outlook, Easing Iran Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.11
Daily:
0.23 (0.24%)
Weekly:
0.31 (0.32%)
US_10Y
4.06
Daily:
-0.05 (-1.17%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-3.38%)
SP500
6836.17
Daily:
3.41 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-128.65 (-1.85%)
VIX
21.2
Daily:
0.6 (2.91%)
Weekly:
3.41 (19.17%)
GOLD
4971.5
Daily:
-50.5 (-1.01%)
Weekly:
-32.3 (-0.65%)
COPPER
5.71
Daily:
-0.08 (-1.4%)
Weekly:
-0.18 (-3.13%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$63.52
Closest Support:
$62.09
2.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
0.79% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-16 23:53:56
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.04%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | $62.86 | $60.1 | $65.62 |
| 2026-02-15 | $62.78 | $60.02 | $65.54 |
| 2026-02-16 | $62.95 | $60.19 | $65.71 |
| 2026-02-17 | $63.0 | $60.24 | $65.76 |
| 2026-02-18 | $63.0 | $60.24 | $65.76 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2026-02-14), reaching $62.86.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-14 and 2026-02-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market presents bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.300. The recent price movements show a downward trend, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $61.74/b and WTI at $57.87/b.
The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.76/b, indicating potential shifts in supply dynamics. The market remains in backwardation, suggesting short-term bullish fundamentals but with pressure from futures selling.
Traders should watch for volatility in the coming weeks, particularly as managed money positions increase, indicating potential for price movements. Key support levels to monitor are around $57.50/b for WTI, and resistance near $62.50/b.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, producers should focus on production planning that aligns with these growth expectations. However, the bearish sentiment in the market may influence pricing strategies.
The increase in OECD inventories suggests a need for careful hedging strategies to mitigate risk against falling prices. Producers should consider locking in prices at current levels to protect against potential downturns, especially as crude stocks rose by 8.1 mb in November.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The current price for WTI is around $57.87/b, with Brent slightly higher at $61.63/b.
The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, which could affect supply reliability. Monitoring inventory levels is crucial, as OECD crude stocks are 39.1 mb higher than last year, but still below the five-year average. This could signal supply risks in the near future.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish outlook, driven by increasing inventories and a narrowing Brent-WTI spread. The technical indicators suggest a support level for WTI around $57.50/b.
The balance of supply and demand appears stable, with a forecast for 1.4 mb/d growth in demand against a backdrop of rising non-DoC production. Analysts should remain vigilant of geopolitical factors and market sentiment, which could shift rapidly, impacting both pricing and demand dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.