Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading shows a sideways move in between the two key pivot points of 61.64 and 63.80. Elevated trading is on fears on US increasing tension and bearish tension is on the renewed discussion of oil supply surplus.
* Tuesday brought a drop on renewed demand concerns around the economy.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-17 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has shifted from a "shortage saga" to a "spreadsheet reality check," with U.S. production steady near 13.7 mbpd and OPEC+ poised to unwind cuts. Despite the IEA forecasting a potential 3.7 mbpd surplus by 2026, geopolitical tensions, especially U.S.-Iran talks, are weighing on prices. Current inventories are snug, not sparse, suggesting a balanced market with room for fluctuations mainly driven by geopolitical events. Watch for shifts in U.S.-Iran relations as they could spark volatility in oil prices.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
0/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.75
$0.23
WTI:
$62.89
$0.05
Spread:
$4.86
(Brent premium of $4.86)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
0
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$62.44
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.68
MA(20): $62.83
Current Price is 62.44, 9 day MA 63.68, 20 day MA 62.83
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.964
Signal: 1.2109
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.19
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 8,176
Avg (20d): 353,707
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 24.63
%D: 36.86
Stochastic %K: 24.63, %D: 36.86. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.73
+DI: 19.28
-DI: 15.19
ADX: 28.73 (+DI: 19.28, -DI: 15.19). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -75.37
Williams %R: -75.37 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 66.23
Middle: 62.83
Lower: 59.44
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.23, Middle: 62.83, Lower: 59.44
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.75, change $+0.23. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.89, change $+0.05. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.86 (Brent premium of $4.86). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.75
0.23
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.89
0.05
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.86
Brent premium of $4.86
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, indicating a shift into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable, projected at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The outlook for major economies is as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth rates positively.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, reaching approximately 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to an average of 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Notable trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: Declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline
- Singapore: Declines driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, due to weather disruptions and demand from European refiners
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates rose, led by East of Suez, with Middle East-to-East rates up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to 4.2 mb/d. Key developments include:
- OECD Europe: Decline in crude imports due to lower flows from Kazakhstan
- Japan: Crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China: Crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicates that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD crude oil stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb, 14.4 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
32
Last Updated:
2026-02-17 23:53:40
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.23
Daily:
0.35 (0.36%)
Weekly:
0.43 (0.44%)
US_10Y
4.05
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-2.29%)
SP500
6843.22
Daily:
7.05 (0.1%)
Weekly:
-98.59 (-1.42%)
VIX
20.29
Daily:
-0.31 (-1.5%)
Weekly:
2.5 (14.05%)
GOLD
4951.3
Daily:
-70.7 (-1.41%)
Weekly:
-52.5 (-1.05%)
COPPER
5.71
Daily:
-0.08 (-1.43%)
Weekly:
-0.19 (-3.16%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$62.44
Closest Support:
$62.09
0.56% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$64.02
2.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
Support
0.786
$64.02
Resistance
1.0
$66.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$62.33
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-17 23:53:43
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.28%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | $62.5 | $59.82 | $65.19 |
| 2026-02-19 | $62.54 | $59.85 | $65.22 |
| 2026-02-20 | $62.53 | $59.85 | $65.21 |
| 2026-02-21 | $62.59 | $59.91 | $65.28 |
| 2026-02-22 | $62.59 | $59.91 | $65.28 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.28% for the next trading day (2026-02-18), reaching $62.50.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-18 and 2026-02-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market exhibits a bearish overall sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. Despite the recent price movements, such as the $67.75 for Brent and $62.89 for WTI, traders should be aware of potential volatility in the short term due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics.
The Brent-WTI spread currently at $4.86 indicates a premium for Brent, reflecting ongoing differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand. This spread can provide short-term trading opportunities, especially if it widens or narrows based on market sentiment.
Traders should watch for resistance levels around $64.73 for Brent and $60.26 for WTI, with support levels potentially forming near previous lows. The increase in managed money net positions suggests a potential shift towards bullish sentiment, but caution is advised given the current overall market sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the demand for DoC crude remaining stable at 43.0 mb/d for 2026, producers should align their production planning accordingly. The hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in response to the current bearish sentiment and fluctuating inventory levels.
The recent increase in OECD commercial oil inventories by 6.5 mb indicates a potential oversupply, which could exert downward pressure on prices. Producers should monitor these inventory levels closely, as they can impact market sentiment and pricing strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The current prices of $67.75 for Brent and $62.89 for WTI suggest that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to mitigate risks associated with price increases.
Additionally, the geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for supply disruptions could impact supply reliability. It’s advisable for consumers to consider strategic procurement or hedging options to safeguard against unexpected price spikes or supply shortages.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture, with bearish sentiment dominating due to geopolitical risks and rising inventories. The supply-demand balance remains relatively stable, with demand for DoC crude unchanged at 43.0 mb/d for 2026.
Factors such as the increase in managed money net positions indicate a potential bullish shift, but overall market sentiment is cautious. Analysts should focus on the implications of refined product margins declining and the impact of geopolitical developments on supply chains.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.