Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading shows a sideways move in between the two key pivot points of 61.64 and 63.80. Elevated trading is on fears on US increasing tension and bearish tension is on the renewed discussion of oil supply surplus.
* Tuesday brought a drop on renewed demand concerns around the economy.
* Wednesday was another news cycle of increased tension between Russia and Ukraine which drove Crude back above the 63.80 level.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-18 23:52
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
**Crude Oil Market Summary:**
Crude oil is navigating a complex landscape where U.S. production is robust at 13.7 mbpd, with an anticipated surplus of 3.7 mbpd by 2026. Despite OPEC+ cuts, geopolitical tensions keep prices buoyant, with recent trading showing volatility between $61.64 and $63.80. Inventories are only slightly below average, suggesting a comfortable supply. While technical corrections are anticipated, any shifts in geopolitical dynamics could ignite fresh trading opportunities. Keep an eye on those pivot points!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$67.42
$0.33
WTI:
$62.33
$0.56
Spread:
$5.09
(Brent premium of $5.09)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$65.29
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $63.68
MA(20): $63.08
Current Price is 65.29, 9 day MA 63.68, 20 day MA 63.08
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.056
Signal: 1.1785
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 59.81
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 59.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 15,480
Avg (20d): 345,529
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 77.8
%D: 47.92
Stochastic %K: 77.8, %D: 47.92. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 29.36
+DI: 23.37
-DI: 12.69
ADX: 29.36 (+DI: 23.37, -DI: 12.69). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -22.2
Williams %R: -22.2 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.43
Middle: 63.08
Lower: 59.72
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.43, Middle: 63.08, Lower: 59.72
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13713.0 | 13215.0 | 13478.0 | 13031.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6805.0 | 6201.0 | 6915.0 | 6337.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3739.0 | 4047.0 | 4331.0 | 3800.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16000.0 | 16029.0 | 15349.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3066.0 | 2154.0 | 2584.0 | 2536.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 428829.0 | 420299.0 | 423790.0 | 446234.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1689065.0 | 1690785.0 | 1605706.0 | 1609314.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 259058.0 | 257898.0 | 251088.0 | 245768.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124665.0 | 127368.0 | 118480.0 | 121170.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $67.42, change $-0.33. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $62.33, change $-0.56. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.09 (Brent premium of $5.09). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$67.42
0.33
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$62.33
0.56
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.09
Brent premium of $5.09
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Key growth outlooks include:
- US: 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth rates.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with similar growth patterns observed in both OECD and non-OECD regions.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries indicates a growth of 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, led by gasoline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key trends include:
- VLCC rates: Up by 64%, y-o-y, reaching a decade high
- Suezmax rates: Increased by 12%, m-o-m
- Aframax rates: Rose by 10%, m-o-m, to a 10-year high
- Clean tanker market: Rates up by 17%, m-o-m, for Middle East-to-East routes
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. Key trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Decline in crude imports, increase in product exports
- Japan: Crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key details include:
- Crude stocks: Fell by 2.1 mb to 1,363 mb
- Product stocks: Increased by 8.6 mb to 1,481 mb
- Days of forward cover: Rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, with a similar forecast of 43.6 mb/d for 2027. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, necessitating a strategic outlook for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
45
Last Updated:
2026-02-18 23:50:45
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- OPEC+ Expected to Resume Output Increases, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Consolidates, But Prospects of OPEC+ Supply Increase Could Weigh — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.76
Daily:
0.6 (0.62%)
Weekly:
0.93 (0.96%)
US_10Y
4.08
Daily:
0.03 (0.67%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-2.23%)
SP500
6881.31
Daily:
38.09 (0.56%)
Weekly:
-60.16 (-0.87%)
VIX
19.62
Daily:
-0.67 (-3.3%)
Weekly:
1.97 (11.16%)
GOLD
4998.9
Daily:
116.0 (2.38%)
Weekly:
-72.7 (-1.43%)
COPPER
5.78
Daily:
0.15 (2.62%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.83%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$65.29
Closest Support:
$64.02
1.95% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$66.48
1.82% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.69
0.382
$59.37
0.5
$60.73
0.618
$62.09
0.786
$64.02
Support
1.0
$66.48
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.61
1.618
$73.59
2.0
$77.98
2.618
$85.09
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$65.19
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-18 23:50:47
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | $65.2 | $62.4 | $68.0 |
| 2026-02-20 | $65.27 | $62.48 | $68.07 |
| 2026-02-21 | $65.38 | $62.58 | $68.17 |
| 2026-02-22 | $65.08 | $62.28 | $67.87 |
| 2026-02-23 | $65.0 | $62.2 | $67.79 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2026-02-19), reaching $65.20.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-19 and 2026-02-23.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.400. This indicates potential headwinds for price movements in the short term. The $67.42 for Brent and $62.33 for WTI suggest a support level around these prices, but be cautious of potential volatility due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ supply dynamics. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $5.09, which reflects ongoing differences in supply-demand dynamics and may indicate short-term trading opportunities as traders react to news and positioning shifts. Overall, watch for fluctuations in open interest and managed money positions, as these could signal potential reversals or continuation patterns in price trends.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the inventory levels showing an increase in OECD commercial stocks, producers should consider adjusting production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The decrease in production from OPEC+ countries by 439 tb/d could create opportunities for price stabilization, but the market sentiment remains a concern. Additionally, the robust physical market fundamentals suggest that maintaining flexibility in operations could mitigate risks associated with fluctuating demand forecasts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The current $67.42 for Brent and $62.33 for WTI may impact procurement strategies. Geopolitical uncertainties and rising inventories could pose supply reliability risks, particularly for industries reliant on stable fuel supplies. It may be prudent to consider hedging strategies to mitigate exposure to price swings in the near term, especially as demand forecasts remain stable.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and fundamental balance factors. The stable demand forecasts of 1.4 mb/d for 2026 and 1.3 mb/d for 2027 contrast with rising inventories, which could indicate a tightening market in the long term. Additionally, the significant increase in managed money positions suggests a potential shift towards bullish sentiment, albeit tempered by current bearish trends. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and OPEC+ decisions, as these will be critical in shaping market dynamics going forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.