Crude right now is less “shortage saga” and more “spreadsheet reality check.” U.S. production is humming near 13.7 mbpd with the EIA nudging 2026 toward 13.60 mbpd, while OPEC+ still has roughly 1.2 mbpd of cuts left to unwind and is openly flirting with April increases. On the demand side, the IEA is staring at a potential ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, gasoline stocks sit +4.4% above the 5-year average, and Venezuelan exports just rebounded to ~800k bpd, quietly padding global supply. Inventories aren’t screaming tight either, with U.S. crude stocks only -3.4% below the 5-year average, meaning we’re snug, not starving. So unless geopolitics decides to light another match, the math says barrels are comfortable, the premium looks political, and the market is balancing on supply growth more than scarcity fear.
Daily Hit List
* Sunday & Monday early trading shows a sideways move in between the two key pivot points of 61.64 and 63.80. Elevated trading is on fears on US increasing tension and bearish tension is on the renewed discussion of oil supply surplus.
* Tuesday brought a drop on renewed demand concerns around the economy.
* Wednesday was another news cycle of increased tension between Russia and Ukraine which drove Crude back above the 63.80 level.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-19 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is shifting from a narrative of scarcity to a more data-driven perspective. U.S. production is robust at 13.7 mbpd, with the EIA projecting stable growth, while OPEC+ considers unwinding cuts. Demand concerns loom as the IEA anticipates a potential surplus of 3.7 mbpd through 2026. U.S. inventories are only marginally below the five-year average, signaling supply comfort. Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, are adding a speculative premium, but fundamentally, the market appears well-balanced, unless global events intervene.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$70.35
$2.93
WTI:
$65.19
$2.86
Spread:
$5.16
(Brent premium of $5.16)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,146
Weekly Change:
2,386
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$66.7
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $64.05
MA(20): $63.38
Current Price is 66.7, 9 day MA 64.05, 20 day MA 63.38
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.2293
Signal: 1.1874
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 63.28
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 63.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 13,763
Avg (20d): 334,559
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 97.21
%D: 65.24
Stochastic %K: 97.21, %D: 65.24. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.05
+DI: 26.55
-DI: 11.85
ADX: 30.05 (+DI: 26.55, -DI: 11.85). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -2.79
Williams %R: -2.79 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.87
Middle: 63.38
Lower: 59.88
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.87, Middle: 63.38, Lower: 59.88
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13735.0 | 13713.0 | 13494.0 | 13032.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6524.0 | 6805.0 | 6309.0 | 6266.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4590.0 | 3739.0 | 3909.0 | 4647.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16077.0 | 16000.0 | 15431.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1934.0 | 3066.0 | 2400.0 | 1619.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419815.0 | 428829.0 | 427860.0 | 451499.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1670214.0 | 1689065.0 | 1607173.0 | 1610474.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 255845.0 | 259058.0 | 248053.0 | 245001.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120099.0 | 124665.0 | 118615.0 | 120050.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $70.35, change $+2.93. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $65.19, change $+2.86. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.16 (Brent premium of $5.16). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$70.35
2.93
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$65.19
2.86
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.16
Brent premium of $5.16
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
- Brent-WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
- The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation.
- Physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts, with oil supply outages and easing selling pressure from speculators.
- Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.
- US economic growth forecast revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
- China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
- India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
- Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
- In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
- Key growth drivers include Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026.
- Crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures.
- In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel.
- In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
- In Singapore, the decline was driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, up by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax spot freight rates also experienced a strong performance, with rates on the Cross-Med route rising by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed a strong performance, led by East of Suez.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020.
- China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
- India’s crude imports remained at elevated levels in December, averaging 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.
- OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates that for 2026, the world demand of 106.5 mb/d exceeds the non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap emphasizes the need for strategic production decisions to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-10
Managed Money
79,146
Change: +2,386
3.8% of OI
Producer/Merchant
168,124
Change: -2,516
8.1% of OI
Swap Dealers
-323,990
Change: -851
-15.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,070,538
Change: -20,776
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,070,538 contracts (-20,776)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,146 contracts (3.8% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,386 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 168,124 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -323,990 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
51
Last Updated:
2026-02-19 23:53:53
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- OPEC+ Expected to Resume Output Increases, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Falling US Supplies Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Jump on Heightened Geopolitical Risks and Falling US Supplies Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Mounting Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Geopolitical Risks and US Economic Strength Boost Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Tech leads US stocks rally; renewed geopolitical strife boosts oil, gold Reuters
- Oil Rebounds on Russia-Ukraine Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.98
Daily:
0.28 (0.29%)
Weekly:
1.05 (1.09%)
US_10Y
4.07
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.71%)
SP500
6861.89
Daily:
-19.42 (-0.28%)
Weekly:
29.13 (0.43%)
VIX
20.23
Daily:
0.61 (3.11%)
Weekly:
-0.59 (-2.83%)
GOLD
5017.7
Daily:
31.2 (0.63%)
Weekly:
94.0 (1.91%)
COPPER
5.75
Daily:
-0.05 (-0.83%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.44%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$66.7
Closest Support:
$64.32
3.57% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$66.86
0.24% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.78
0.382
$59.52
0.5
$60.92
0.618
$62.32
0.786
$64.32
Support
1.0
$66.86
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$70.09
1.618
$74.2
2.0
$78.74
2.618
$86.08
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$66.43
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-19 23:53:55
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | $66.5 | $63.71 | $69.29 |
| 2026-02-21 | $66.64 | $63.85 | $69.43 |
| 2026-02-22 | $66.35 | $63.56 | $69.14 |
| 2026-02-23 | $66.13 | $63.34 | $68.92 |
| 2026-02-24 | $66.08 | $63.29 | $68.87 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-02-20), reaching $66.50.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-20 and 2026-02-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, with the Brent and WTI prices both increasing. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $5.16, suggesting a potential opportunity for traders to capitalize on this divergence, particularly as geopolitical tensions may influence prices further.
Traders should monitor support levels around the $60 mark for WTI and $62 for Brent, while resistance levels could be observed at $65 for WTI and $70 for Brent. Given the ML forecasts indicating continued bullish momentum, short-term trading strategies could focus on leveraging these price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance between supply and demand remains tight, with DoC crude demand expected to rise, which could support production planning. Producers should consider adjusting their output in response to the bullish market sentiment and the 439 tb/d decrease in production from DoC countries in January.
Hedging strategies should be reevaluated in light of the current price trends and inventory levels, as high inventory levels in OECD countries could pose risks to price stability. The increase in product stocks suggests a potential oversupply scenario, which may affect pricing in the medium term.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with crude prices trending upwards. The recent increase in WTI and Brent prices may impact procurement strategies. With geopolitical tensions affecting supply reliability, maintaining a flexible procurement strategy will be crucial.
Additionally, the risk factors associated with rising prices and potential supply disruptions should prompt consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate cost volatility. Monitoring inventory levels and refining margins will be essential to navigate the current market dynamics effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by strong demand forecasts and geopolitical uncertainties. With global oil demand expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026 and a corresponding increase in DoC crude demand, analysts should focus on the implications of these factors for price stability.
The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, with significant contributions from non-DoC countries. The recent increase in speculative positions suggests that market sentiment is strengthening, which could lead to upward price pressure. Analysts should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical developments and inventory levels, as these will be critical in shaping the market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.