Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.

The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. The economic growth forecasts for China remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about 8.9 mb/d. In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs. Stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures weighed on refining margins, despite a significant rise in offline capacity due to the severe winter in the Atlantic basin and extended maintenance in Asia. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel as increased availability of heavy crude supplies weighed on fuel oil and, to a more limited extent, on gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline, followed by fuel oil. In Singapore, the decline was driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by weather disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, unplanned outages, and steady loading activity. VLCC spot freight rates began in 2026 with an exceptionally strong performance, which spilled over into the smaller vessel classes. Spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route reached the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions in the Atlantic basin and spillover support from the VLCC market. Suezmax rates on the USGC-to-Europe route were up by 12%, m-o-m, more than double year-ago levels, as European refiners sought replacements for disrupted CPC flows. Aframax spot freight rates also experienced a strong performance in January, as a cold blast tied up tonnage in the Atlantic basin. Cross-Med Aframax spot freight rates rose by 10%, m-o-m, to reach a 10-year high for the month. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed a strong performance, led by East of Suez. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m, while rates around the Mediterranean gained 5%, m-o-m.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average. US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, amid higher flows to Europe and Africa. Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from the elevated levels seen over the previous two months. In December, crude imports into OECD Europe declined, m-o-m, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan. Product exports picked up from the previous month on higher inflows of fuel oil and diesel. In Japan, crude imports surged, averaging just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020. Product imports, including LPG, reached a four-month high, led by kerosene and LPG, supported by winter fuel demand. China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d. China’s product imports declined by 3%, as naphtha inflows fell from record levels seen in the previous month. Product exports from China rose marginally, as a jump in fuel oil exports was partly offset by a drop in gasoline flows. India’s crude imports remained at elevated levels in December, averaging 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, m-o-m. Product imports declined by 5%, m-o-m, to average 1.2 mb/d, as a drop in fuel oil and naphtha inflows was offset by higher LPG imports. India’s product exports were broadly unchanged at 1.4 mb/d.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average, but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb. This was 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y, and 17.5 mb above the latest five-year average, but 64.2 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb. This was 14.4 mb higher, y-o-y, and 26.7 mb above the latest five-year average, but 16.9 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, in December, to stand at 62.8 days. This was 1.8 days higher than in December 2024, unchanged relative to the latest five-year average, and 0.5 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.

The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude in 2026 of 43.0 mb/d against a world demand of 106.5 mb/d and non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d. This gap necessitates strategic production decisions to align supply with the increasing demand forecasted for 2026 and 2027.