337*Ashton2026 + 3687 + 2153 Crude oil right now is a tug-of-war between spreadsheets and sabers. WTI is hovering near $66 after flirting with a 6.5-month high, yet Friday closed fractionally lower as Q4 GDP printed 1.4% versus expectations of 2.8%, manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.2, and consumer sentiment sagged to 56.6. That trio doesn’t scream demand acceleration. It whispers moderation. The macro tape is softening just as geopolitical rhetoric is heating up.
Now layer in the hard data. According to the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell 9.0 million barrels to 419.8 million barrels, roughly 5% below the 5-year average . Refinery runs increased to 16.1 million bpd with utilization at 91%, gasoline production at 9.4 million bpd, and distillate at 4.9 million bpd . Total products supplied over the past four weeks averaged 21.2 million bpd, up 4.1% year over year . That is not a collapsing demand structure. It is steady, slightly constructive consumption.
But supply is hardly tight. U.S. production rose to 13.735 million bpd, just shy of the 13.862 record . Baker Hughes oil rigs sit at 409, down sharply from 627 in 2022 but stable week-over-week. Venezuela exports rebounded to 800,000 bpd in January. Floating storage of Russian and Iranian crude still hovers near 290 million barrels globally. OPEC+ has 1.2 million bpd left to restore. The IEA still sees a 3.7 million bpd surplus into 2026. The world is not short barrels. It is short certainty.
Geopolitics, however, refuses to sit quietly. Iran produces roughly 3.3 million bpd, and any disruption that meaningfully threatens the Strait of Hormuz risks 20% of global flows. Ukrainian drone strikes have hit 28 Russian refineries in six months, curbing exports. Meanwhile, rhetoric around potential military action creates a volatility premium that the macro data alone would not justify. The market is pricing probability, not outcome.
Technically, the tape is constructive but cautious. A 5% weekly gain into the mid-$60s reflects geopolitical risk bid, but momentum stalled as macro data disappointed. We are trading near recent highs, yet without follow-through volume that signals breakout conviction. This looks like a risk premium resting on a macro fault line. If $66–$68 clears decisively, momentum traders engage. If demand narratives weaken further, we rotate back toward the low $60s where refinery economics and physical buying re-enter.
The broader narrative is this: fundamentals are balanced to slightly comfortable, geopolitics is inflating optionality, and macro data is tempering enthusiasm. Crude is not in shortage mode. It is in “headline-sensitive equilibrium.” If Iranian supply disruption becomes tangible, volatility expands fast. If GDP softness spreads and surplus projections regain credibility, the premium compresses. In this market, barrels matter. But timing matters more.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-22 23:51
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is in a delicate balance, currently hovering around $66 as it grapples with softening macro data and robust geopolitical tensions. While U.S. crude stocks fell by 9 million barrels, highlighting steady demand, production rose to near-record levels, indicating ample supply. The market is reacting to uncertainties, particularly surrounding Iran and Ukraine, creating a volatility premium. Traders should watch for a decisive break above $66–$68 for bullish momentum or a retreat to the low $60s if demand narratives weaken further. Timing is crucial!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$71.76
$0.1
WTI:
$66.39
$0.04
Spread:
$5.37
(Brent premium of $5.37)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
63,785
Weekly Change:
15,361
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$65.61
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $64.47
MA(20): $63.94
Current Price is 65.61, 9 day MA 64.47, 20 day MA 63.94
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.3234
Signal: 1.2324
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 59.19
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 59.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 23,724
Avg (20d): 316,010
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 75.72
%D: 85.49
Stochastic %K: 75.72, %D: 85.49. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.82
+DI: 24.98
-DI: 12.85
ADX: 30.82 (+DI: 24.98, -DI: 12.85). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -24.28
Williams %R: -24.28 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 66.96
Middle: 63.94
Lower: 60.92
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.96, Middle: 63.94, Lower: 60.92
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13735.0 | 13713.0 | 13494.0 | 13032.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6524.0 | 6805.0 | 6309.0 | 6266.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4590.0 | 3739.0 | 3909.0 | 4647.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16077.0 | 16000.0 | 15431.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1934.0 | 3066.0 | 2400.0 | 1619.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419815.0 | 428829.0 | 427860.0 | 451499.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1670214.0 | 1689065.0 | 1607173.0 | 1610474.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 255845.0 | 259058.0 | 248053.0 | 245001.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120099.0 | 124665.0 | 118615.0 | 120050.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $71.76, change $+0.1. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $66.39, change $-0.04. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.37 (Brent premium of $5.37). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$71.76
0.1
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$66.39
0.04
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.37
Brent premium of $5.37
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, indicating a shift into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecasts are stable at 1.2% for both years. Japan's economic growth is projected at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. China's growth forecast remains at 4.5%, and India's at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's economic growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are anticipated to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses were attributed to increased availability of heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also saw a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached their highest levels in a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates increased due to weather disruptions, while Aframax spot freight rates also performed well, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 17%, m-o-m, indicating strong demand.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with the five-year average. US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined, while product exports increased due to higher inflows of fuel oil and diesel. Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher y-o-y and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average, but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, the demand for DoC crude is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase from 2026. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the upcoming years:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, highlighting the necessity for strategic production decisions moving forward. The gap between world demand and non-DoC supply underscores the importance of maintaining robust production levels to meet anticipated demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-17
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: 16,955
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-17
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,087,493 contracts (+16,955)
Managed Money Net Position: 63,785 contracts (3.1% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -15,361 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 156,331 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -337,960 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
27
Last Updated:
2026-02-22 23:50:31
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.49
Daily:
-0.31 (-0.32%)
Weekly:
0.33 (0.34%)
US_10Y
4.09
Daily:
0.01 (0.27%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.74%)
SP500
6909.51
Daily:
47.62 (0.69%)
Weekly:
73.34 (1.07%)
VIX
19.09
Daily:
-1.14 (-5.64%)
Weekly:
-1.51 (-7.33%)
GOLD
5182.5
Daily:
123.2 (2.44%)
Weekly:
299.6 (6.14%)
COPPER
5.83
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
0.19 (3.42%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$65.61
Closest Support:
$64.47
1.74% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$67.05
2.19% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.83
0.382
$59.59
0.5
$61.02
0.618
$62.44
0.786
$64.47
Support
1.0
$67.05
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$70.33
1.618
$74.51
2.0
$79.12
2.618
$86.58
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$66.39
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-22 23:50:33
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | $66.52 | $63.73 | $69.32 |
| 2026-02-22 | $66.22 | $63.43 | $69.01 |
| 2026-02-23 | $66.01 | $63.22 | $68.8 |
| 2026-02-24 | $65.97 | $63.18 | $68.76 |
| 2026-02-25 | $65.95 | $63.16 | $68.74 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2026-02-21), reaching $66.52.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-21 and 2026-02-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of +0.700, suggests potential upward price movements. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $5.37, indicating stronger demand dynamics for Brent compared to WTI, which could signal support levels for Brent prices. However, the risk of volatility remains, given the mixed sentiment regarding global demand, particularly highlighted by concerns about energy demand weighing on prices. Traders should watch for potential resistance around Brent at $71.76 and WTI at $66.39, while Fibonacci levels may provide additional insights for entry and exit points.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current inventory levels, with OECD commercial stocks at 2,845 mb, reflect a balanced supply-demand scenario but indicate potential overhangs in product stocks, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, especially given the bearish sentiment regarding demand from recent news articles. With non-DoC liquids production expected to grow, strategic planning around production levels will be essential to optimize profitability in a competitive market.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should be prepared for potential fluctuations in input costs, with WTI at $66.39 and Brent at $71.76. The geopolitical risks and supply reliability issues highlighted by recent news may necessitate procurement strategies that account for these uncertainties. Additionally, the risk of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and weather impacts should be factored into operational planning and inventory management.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a complex interplay of bullish technical indicators and bearish demand sentiment. Key driving factors include rising geopolitical tensions and significant fluctuations in inventory levels, which can lead to shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should monitor the balance of supply and demand closely, as the forecasts indicate a steady growth in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, which may influence future price trajectories.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for specific recommendations.