Supply is hardly tight, though. U.S. production is near its 13.862M bpd record, and global floating storage is high. The IEA still projects a 3.7M bpd surplus into 2026. The world has barrels but lacks certainty. Geopolitics is the catalyst. Disruption to Iran's 3.3M bpd or the Strait of Hormuz, plus ongoing Russian refinery strikes, inflates a volatility premium that overshadows macro weakness. The market prices probability, not outcome. Technically, $66–$68 is the critical zone. Clearing it signals momentum-driven breakout; failing risks a rotation back to the low $60s. Fundamentals are balanced, geopolitics adds optionality, and macro data tempers enthusiasm. Crude is in a "headline-sensitive equilibrium." Tangible supply disruption expands volatility; spreading GDP softness compresses the risk premium. Timing is key.
* Monday’s trading lent to more of a sideways action as demand is still not solid (although distillate stocks create some hope) but we are possibly on the verge of a US-Iran conflict (this seems to have been signaled)
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-23 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets are in a tight balance, with U.S. production nearing record levels and global floating storage remaining elevated. While the IEA anticipates a 3.7M bpd surplus through 2026, geopolitical risks—especially concerning Iran—are injecting volatility. Technically, the $66-$68 zone is crucial; a breakout here could signal momentum, whereas failure might lead to a dip into the low $60s. The market is sensitive to headlines, blending robust supply with geopolitical uncertainty. Timing is everything!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$71.76
$0.1
WTI:
$66.39
$0.04
Spread:
$5.37
(Brent premium of $5.37)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
63,785
Weekly Change:
15,361
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$66.86
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $64.61
MA(20): $64.0
Current Price is 66.86, 9 day MA 64.61, 20 day MA 64.0
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.4231
Signal: 1.2523
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 63.72
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 63.72 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 16,657
Avg (20d): 327,553
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 96.8
%D: 92.51
Stochastic %K: 96.8, %D: 92.51. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 31.34
+DI: 25.1
-DI: 10.93
ADX: 31.34 (+DI: 25.1, -DI: 10.93). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -3.2
Williams %R: -3.2 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 67.21
Middle: 64.0
Lower: 60.8
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 67.21, Middle: 64.0, Lower: 60.8
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13735.0 | 13713.0 | 13494.0 | 13032.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6524.0 | 6805.0 | 6309.0 | 6266.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4590.0 | 3739.0 | 3909.0 | 4647.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16077.0 | 16000.0 | 15431.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1934.0 | 3066.0 | 2400.0 | 1619.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419815.0 | 428829.0 | 427860.0 | 451499.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1670214.0 | 1689065.0 | 1607173.0 | 1610474.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 255845.0 | 259058.0 | 248053.0 | 245001.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120099.0 | 124665.0 | 118615.0 | 120050.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $71.76, change $+0.1. WTI crude (MAR 26) settled at $66.39, change $-0.04. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.37 (Brent premium of $5.37). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$71.76
0.1
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$66.39
0.04
(MAR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.37
Brent premium of $5.37
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract saw a rise of $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been revised slightly upward to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth is projected at 0.9% for both years, while China's forecast remains at 4.5%. India's growth is expected at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's growth is projected at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, reaching an average of about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore experienced a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached their highest level for the month in a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates increased, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y. The days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, reflecting a stable supply environment.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap of 43.0 mb/d for DoC crude in 2026, which highlights the need for strategic production decisions to ensure market stability. The balance suggests that while demand is increasing, the reliance on non-DoC supply will necessitate careful management of production levels to meet the growing requirements.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-17
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: 16,955
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-17
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,087,493 contracts (+16,955)
Managed Money Net Position: 63,785 contracts (3.1% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -15,361 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 156,331 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -337,960 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
28
Last Updated:
2026-02-23 23:53:51
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Demand (3 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.9
Daily:
0.1 (0.11%)
Weekly:
0.74 (0.77%)
US_10Y
4.03
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.4%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.57%)
SP500
6837.75
Daily:
-71.76 (-1.04%)
Weekly:
-5.47 (-0.08%)
VIX
21.01
Daily:
1.92 (10.06%)
Weekly:
0.72 (3.55%)
GOLD
5186.7
Daily:
127.4 (2.52%)
Weekly:
303.8 (6.22%)
COPPER
5.88
Daily:
0.05 (0.8%)
Weekly:
0.24 (4.34%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$66.86
Closest Support:
$64.47
3.57% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$67.05
0.28% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.83
0.382
$59.59
0.5
$61.02
0.618
$62.44
0.786
$64.47
Support
1.0
$67.05
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$70.33
1.618
$74.51
2.0
$79.12
2.618
$86.58
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$66.31
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-23 23:53:53
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.45%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | $66.01 | $63.27 | $68.75 |
| 2026-02-25 | $65.8 | $63.05 | $68.54 |
| 2026-02-26 | $65.76 | $63.02 | $68.5 |
| 2026-02-27 | $65.76 | $63.02 | $68.5 |
| 2026-02-28 | $65.79 | $63.05 | $68.54 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.45% for the next trading day (2026-02-24), reaching $66.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-24 and 2026-02-28.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market presents neutral sentiment overall, with the $62.31/b OPEC Reference Basket and a $64.73/b average for ICE Brent. The $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread indicates a potential divergence in supply/demand dynamics, suggesting opportunities for arbitrage.
The support level for WTI is around $60.00/b, while resistance is noted at $66.00/b. The market is experiencing increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand, particularly from China. Traders should be cautious of the weakening bullish sentiment as managed money positions decrease.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of stable demand growth forecasts, with global oil demand expected to rise by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. However, the decline in crude production from OPEC members presents a potential opportunity for increased market share.
With OECD commercial oil inventories rising, hedging strategies should be revisited to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations. The focus on maintaining production efficiency is crucial, especially in light of the current market sentiment and $62.31/b average OPEC price.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, with WTI currently at $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating inventories could lead to supply reliability risks.
It is advisable to consider hedging options to manage procurement costs effectively, especially as market sentiment remains neutral and refining margins are under pressure. The increased product inventories may provide some buffer against price spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a neutral sentiment, with key driving factors including stable demand forecasts and geopolitical tensions. The $62.31/b average OPEC price and the $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread reflect underlying supply/demand dynamics.
Analysts should monitor the declining managed money positions as a potential indicator of market shifts. The focus on geopolitical developments and their impact on supply chains will be crucial for future outlook assessments.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.