Supply is hardly tight, though. U.S. production is near its 13.862M bpd record, and global floating storage is high. The IEA still projects a 3.7M bpd surplus into 2026. The world has barrels but lacks certainty. Geopolitics is the catalyst. Disruption to Iran's 3.3M bpd or the Strait of Hormuz, plus ongoing Russian refinery strikes, inflates a volatility premium that overshadows macro weakness. The market prices probability, not outcome. Technically, $66–$68 is the critical zone. Clearing it signals momentum-driven breakout; failing risks a rotation back to the low $60s. Fundamentals are balanced, geopolitics adds optionality, and macro data tempers enthusiasm. Crude is in a "headline-sensitive equilibrium." Tangible supply disruption expands volatility; spreading GDP softness compresses the risk premium. Timing is key.
* Monday’s trading lent to more of a sideways action as demand is still not solid (although distillate stocks create some hope) but we are possibly on the verge of a US-Iran conflict (this seems to have been signaled)
* Crude was just simply a whole lotta nuthin’ - there was nothing worth really discussing as the bulls tried to take us above 66.84 but ran into friction and we closed just shy of there…
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-24 23:51
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil remains in a "headline-sensitive equilibrium," teetering near seven-month highs as geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, stir uncertainty. U.S. production is robust at 13.862M bpd, while global floating storage levels are high, indicating supply is ample. However, volatility is elevated due to potential disruptions, primarily in the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, watch the $66–$68 zone; a breakout above signals momentum, while failure risks a dip back to the low $60s. Stay tuned for developments, as the market reflects probabilities, not certainties.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$71.49
$0.27
WTI:
$66.31
$0.17
Spread:
$5.18
(Brent premium of $5.18)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
63,785
Weekly Change:
15,361
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$66.05
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $64.78
MA(20): $64.25
Current Price is 66.05, 9 day MA 64.78, 20 day MA 64.25
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.3925
Signal: 1.2733
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.93
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 22,345
Avg (20d): 327,303
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 77.26
%D: 83.46
Stochastic %K: 77.26, %D: 83.46. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 30.91
+DI: 23.65
-DI: 12.16
ADX: 30.91 (+DI: 23.65, -DI: 12.16). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -22.74
Williams %R: -22.74 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 67.08
Middle: 64.25
Lower: 61.42
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 67.08, Middle: 64.25, Lower: 61.42
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13735.0 | 13713.0 | 13494.0 | 13032.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6524.0 | 6805.0 | 6309.0 | 6266.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4590.0 | 3739.0 | 3909.0 | 4647.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16077.0 | 16000.0 | 15431.0 | 15000.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1934.0 | 3066.0 | 2400.0 | 1619.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 419815.0 | 428829.0 | 427860.0 | 451499.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1670214.0 | 1689065.0 | 1607173.0 | 1610474.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 255845.0 | 259058.0 | 248053.0 | 245001.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120099.0 | 124665.0 | 118615.0 | 120050.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $71.49, change $-0.27. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $66.31, change $-0.17. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.18 (Brent premium of $5.18). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$71.49
0.27
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$66.31
0.17
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.18
Brent premium of $5.18
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The following are key growth outlooks:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years
- India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Notable trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses driven by increased heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop
- Singapore: Decline attributed to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, due to weather disruptions
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates increased, particularly in East of Suez, with a 17% rise, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key developments include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to 4.2 mb/d
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap of 43.0 mb/d for DoC crude in 2026, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to address this gap. The outlook for the market remains cautious, with attention to production adjustments required to balance the increasing demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-17
Managed Money
63,785
Change: -15,361
3.1% of OI
Producer/Merchant
156,331
Change: -11,793
7.5% of OI
Swap Dealers
-337,960
Change: -13,970
-16.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,087,493
Change: 16,955
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-17
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,087,493 contracts (+16,955)
Managed Money Net Position: 63,785 contracts (3.1% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -15,361 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 156,331 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -337,960 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
28
Last Updated:
2026-02-24 23:50:07
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.75
Daily:
0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.05%)
US_10Y
4.03
Daily:
0.0 (0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.13%)
SP500
6890.07
Daily:
52.32 (0.77%)
Weekly:
8.76 (0.13%)
VIX
19.55
Daily:
-1.46 (-6.95%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-0.36%)
GOLD
5201.7
Daily:
-3.0 (-0.06%)
Weekly:
215.2 (4.32%)
COPPER
6.0
Daily:
0.23 (3.98%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.61%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$66.05
Closest Support:
$64.65
2.12% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$67.28
1.86% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$57.88
0.382
$59.68
0.5
$61.13
0.618
$62.58
0.786
$64.65
Support
1.0
$67.28
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$70.63
1.618
$74.88
2.0
$79.58
2.618
$87.18
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$65.63
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-24 23:50:10
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.33%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | $65.41 | $62.67 | $68.16 |
| 2026-02-26 | $65.37 | $62.62 | $68.11 |
| 2026-02-27 | $65.36 | $62.62 | $68.11 |
| 2026-02-28 | $65.44 | $62.69 | $68.19 |
| 2026-03-01 | $65.48 | $62.74 | $68.23 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.33% for the next trading day (2026-02-25), reaching $65.41.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-25 and 2026-03-01.
- The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate bullish sentiment with the Brent-WTI spread at $5.18, reflecting ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and potential trading opportunities. The support level for WTI is around $60.26, while resistance is seen near $66.31. Additionally, the market sentiment from the CFTC report shows a weakening bullish positioning among managed money, suggesting caution. Traders should monitor for volatility as speculators adjust their positions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand growth forecast at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly. The recent inventory data indicates increased crude stocks in OECD regions, which could impact pricing strategies. The average crude price of $62.31/b suggests a stable market for hedging but highlights the need for vigilance against price volatility driven by geopolitical factors.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices hover around $62.31/b. The supply reliability risks from geopolitical tensions and increased inventory levels may necessitate revised procurement strategies. Monitoring the Brent-WTI spread is crucial for understanding relative pricing dynamics in the market.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a blend of bullish fundamentals and bearish sentiment due to recent geopolitical developments. Key driving factors include steady global demand growth and increased inventory levels. Analysts should closely watch the managed money positioning as it indicates potential market shifts, particularly with the current sentiment score reflecting neutral market conditions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.