Crude closed Friday at $67.02 WTI (+2.8%), but that was before the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran turned geopolitical premium from “theoretical” to “live fire,” and now the market has to decide how much risk to price into Iran’s 3.3 mbpd of production and the 20% of global oil that flows through Hormuz. The problem for bulls is that underneath the missiles sits surplus math: the IEA still sees a potential ~3.7 mbpd global surplus into 2026, OPEC+ has 1.2 mbpd left to restore, and Venezuela is exporting roughly 800k bpd again. U.S. production remains near record at 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories are +3.2% above the 5-year average, and floating storage of Russian/Iranian crude sits near 290 million barrels. So Monday likely opens with a volatility spike, but sustained upside requires actual export disruption, not just rhetoric. If Hormuz traffic is threatened, crude trades fear; if flows continue normally, the market eventually remembers it is well supplied.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-02-28 23:50
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil closed Friday at $67.02 WTI, spiking 2.8% amid heightened geopolitical tensions from U.S./Israel strikes on Iran, raising concerns over Iran’s 3.3 mbpd output and Hormuz Strait disruptions. Despite bullish sentiment, the IEA anticipates a 3.7 mbpd global surplus through 2026. U.S. production remains robust at 13.7 mbpd, and gasoline inventories are above average. Watch for volatility; actual disruptions will dictate sustained upside, while oversupply risks linger. Be prepared—this market's a rollercoaster!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$72.48
$1.73
WTI:
$67.02
$1.81
Spread:
$5.46
(Brent premium of $5.46)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
67,700
Weekly Change:
3,915
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$67.02
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $65.55
MA(20): $64.56
Current Price is 67.02, 9 day MA 65.55, 20 day MA 64.56
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 1.3172
Signal: 1.2784
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 63.0
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 63.0 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 498,542
Avg (20d): 343,231
Ratio: 1.45
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 86.41
%D: 71.26
Stochastic %K: 86.41, %D: 71.26. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 28.15
+DI: 21.18
-DI: 14.88
ADX: 28.15 (+DI: 21.18, -DI: 14.88). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -13.59
Williams %R: -13.59 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 67.42
Middle: 64.56
Lower: 61.7
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 67.42, Middle: 64.56, Lower: 61.7
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13702.0 | 13735.0 | 13497.0 | 13034.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6659.0 | 6524.0 | 5820.0 | 6170.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4313.0 | 4590.0 | 4381.0 | 4848.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 15661.0 | 16077.0 | 15416.0 | 15128.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2346.0 | 1934.0 | 1439.0 | 1322.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 435804.0 | 419815.0 | 432493.0 | 452510.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1681393.0 | 1670214.0 | 1607364.0 | 1607935.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 254834.0 | 255845.0 | 247902.0 | 243889.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120351.0 | 120099.0 | 116564.0 | 121242.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (APR 26) settled at $72.48, change $+1.73. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $67.02, change $+1.81. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.46 (Brent premium of $5.46). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$72.48
1.73
(APR 26)
WTI Crude
$67.02
1.81
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.46
Brent premium of $5.46
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract saw a rise of $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also increased by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Constant at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years
- India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to shape the economic landscape.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month. The breakdown includes:
- OECD: Expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by:
- Brazil
- Canada
- US
- Argentina
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to:
- Stronger feedstock prices
- Seasonal demand pressures
Despite a significant rise in offline capacity due to severe winter conditions in the Atlantic basin and extended maintenance in Asia, margins were negatively impacted. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by:
- Weather disruptions
- Geopolitical uncertainties
- Unplanned outages
- Steady loading activity
Key developments include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade high
- Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, hitting a 10-year high
- Clean tanker market rates showed robust performance, particularly East of Suez
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trends include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa
- OECD Europe saw a decline in crude imports, influenced by lower flows from Kazakhstan
- Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, necessitating strategic production decisions to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-24
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: 15,212
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-24
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,102,705 contracts (+15,212)
Managed Money Net Position: 67,700 contracts (3.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +3,915 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 130,763 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -347,546 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
37
Last Updated:
2026-02-28 23:50:12
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.61
Daily:
-0.18 (-0.18%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
US_10Y
3.96
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.37%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.66%)
SP500
6878.88
Daily:
-29.98 (-0.43%)
Weekly:
41.13 (0.6%)
VIX
19.86
Daily:
1.23 (6.6%)
Weekly:
-1.15 (-5.47%)
GOLD
5230.5
Daily:
54.0 (1.04%)
Weekly:
25.8 (0.5%)
COPPER
6.0
Daily:
0.06 (0.97%)
Weekly:
0.23 (4.01%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$67.02
Closest Support:
$65.08
2.89% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$67.83
1.21% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$58.01
0.382
$59.89
0.5
$61.41
0.618
$62.92
0.786
$65.08
Support
1.0
$67.83
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$71.33
1.618
$75.77
2.0
$80.68
2.618
$88.62
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$67.02
Forecast Generated:
2026-02-28 23:50:15
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.11%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | $67.09 | $64.51 | $69.68 |
| 2026-03-01 | $67.19 | $64.6 | $69.77 |
| 2026-03-02 | $67.23 | $64.65 | $69.81 |
| 2026-03-03 | $67.03 | $64.45 | $69.62 |
| 2026-03-04 | $66.98 | $64.4 | $69.57 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.11% for the next trading day (2026-02-28), reaching $67.09.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-02-28 and 2026-03-04.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, supported by a strong increase in managed money net positions, suggests potential upward price momentum. The $72.48 for Brent and $67.02 for WTI indicate a Brent-WTI spread of $5.46, reflecting ongoing supply/demand dynamics. Traders should watch for support levels around the $60 mark for WTI and $62 for Brent, while resistance levels may emerge near $65 for WTI and $75 for Brent. Given the current market positioning, short-term opportunities may arise from volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and inventory changes.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the demand for DoC crude forecasted to rise, producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly. The decrease in crude oil production from DoC countries by 439 tb/d may tighten supply further, enhancing pricing power. The hedging strategies should be revisited in light of the current market sentiment. Additionally, the increase in OECD commercial stocks indicates a need for careful inventory management to avoid oversupply issues as refining margins are under pressure.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The recent fluctuations in crude prices, with $67.02 for WTI and $72.48 for Brent, suggest potential input cost increases for consumers. Geopolitical risks, particularly around US-Iran tensions, may further complicate supply reliability. Refineries should prepare for procurement strategies that account for potential price spikes and ensure adequate inventory levels, especially given the decline in product margins.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish outlook driven by a combination of strong demand forecasts and tightening supply from DoC countries. The global oil demand growth remains steady at 1.4 mb/d, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries. Analysts should focus on the implications of the geopolitical landscape and its potential to disrupt supply chains, while also monitoring machine learning predictions for price movements based on historical data trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.