Crude closed Friday at $67.02 WTI (+2.8%), but that was before the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran turned geopolitical premium from “theoretical” to “live fire,” and now the market has to decide how much risk to price into Iran’s 3.3 mbpd of production and the 20% of global oil that flows through Hormuz. The problem for bulls is that underneath the missiles sits surplus math: the IEA still sees a potential ~3.7 mbpd global surplus into 2026, OPEC+ has 1.2 mbpd left to restore, and Venezuela is exporting roughly 800k bpd again. U.S. production remains near record at 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories are +3.2% above the 5-year average, and floating storage of Russian/Iranian crude sits near 290 million barrels. Sunday and Monday opened up in the range of 71.41 and 72.95 - a break above 72.95 points to 76.26 as the next level - but now a gap remains down to 66.84. All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz which to date has not reported any severe events, but an oil tanker has been hit already, insurance companies are cancelling contracts for oil cargos, and rumors on Kharg island attacks (this is the island that exports Iranian crude).
* After Sunday opening up at $75, we dropped back to reality just below the key bull/bear line of 71.41. Breaking down below here likely leads to a gap fill down to $66.84 (note this is what I see as the most likely outcome here this week).
* Wow - Tuesday shot up to $76 on WTI to low $80s on Brent based upon strikes from Iran to US Embassy in Riyadh which raised concerns that the Strait of Hormuz will in fact see disruptions and that many of the countries in the Middle East are headed for a wider expanded conflict/strike/war. The afternoon settled lower based upon a statement made by Trump that the US Navy would offer shipping protection. We exited the day closer to the key 72.95 level.
* Mostly sideways action today as traders are “waiting on Godot” - this is all about headlines - crude oil is stalled in the Strait of Hormuz - if not solved in a week - there will be BIG BIG problems for food, oil, LNG.
* WTI shot up to $81.29 - on continued constraints around the Strait of Hormuz. Further fear and escalation is probable - food and oil is now constrained from the Middle East countries. Also - Thursday and Friday traders are closing any short positions and entering long positions in case there is escalation over the weekend.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-05 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil closed at $67.02 WTI, but recent geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S./Israel strikes on Iran, have upped the stakes. The market now balances Iran's 3.3 mbpd production at risk against a global surplus of 3.7 mbpd projected by the IEA. While key price levels are being tested, including a potential breakout above $72.95, ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could cause volatility. Traders are cautious, with a focus on headline-driven price movements, while the underlying surplus remains a bearish concern.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$81.4
$0.0
WTI:
$74.66
$0.1
Spread:
$6.74
(Brent premium of $6.74)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
67,700
Weekly Change:
3,915
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$79.88
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $69.99
MA(20): $66.79
Current Price is 79.88, 9 day MA 69.99, 20 day MA 66.79
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 3.357
Signal: 2.0799
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 83.03
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 83.03 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 48,584
Avg (20d): 383,474
Ratio: 0.13
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 98.42
%D: 85.53
Stochastic %K: 98.42, %D: 85.53. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 36.18
+DI: 35.66
-DI: 7.46
ADX: 36.18 (+DI: 35.66, -DI: 7.46). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -1.58
Williams %R: -1.58 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 75.89
Middle: 66.79
Lower: 57.69
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 75.89, Middle: 66.79, Lower: 57.69
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13702.0 | 13502.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6659.0 | 5919.0 | 6435.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3997.0 | 4313.0 | 4188.0 | 4045.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 15841.0 | 15661.0 | 15733.0 | 15207.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2327.0 | 2346.0 | 1731.0 | 2390.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 439279.0 | 435804.0 | 430161.0 | 453606.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684328.0 | 1681393.0 | 1605146.0 | 1605420.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 253130.0 | 254834.0 | 248271.0 | 241547.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120780.0 | 120351.0 | 120472.0 | 119472.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $81.4, change $0.0. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $74.66, change $+0.1. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.74 (Brent premium of $6.74). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$81.4
0.0
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$74.66
0.1
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.74
Brent premium of $6.74
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The growth outlooks for major economies are as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintains a forecast of 4.5% for both years
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Remains at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Expected to grow by about +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about +1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by +0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is also positive, with growth of +0.1 mb/d expected in both years.
However, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 42.45 mb/d in January.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Notable trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses primarily from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key movements include:
- VLCC rates surged, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, up by +64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased by +12% m-o-m on the USGC-to-Europe route.
- Aframax rates also saw a strong performance, with cross-Med rates rising by +10% m-o-m.
- Clean tanker market rates were robust, especially in the East of Suez, with rates up by +17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average. Notable trends include:
- US crude exports rose by +0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by +6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, +75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by +0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is +0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, also +0.6 mb/d higher than 2026. The supply-demand balance analysis indicates a significant gap:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a DoC requirement gap that necessitates strategic production decisions to ensure market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-02-24
Managed Money
67,700
Change: +3,915
3.2% of OI
Producer/Merchant
130,763
Change: -25,568
6.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-347,546
Change: -9,586
-16.5% of OI
Open Interest
2,102,705
Change: 15,212
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-02-24
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,102,705 contracts (+15,212)
Managed Money Net Position: 67,700 contracts (3.2% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +3,915 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 130,763 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -347,546 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
154
Last Updated:
2026-03-05 23:53:54
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (12 articles)
- Oil Rises on Prospects of Prolonged Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Bearish EIA Inventory Report Barchart
- China's Oil Reserves Cushion Impact of Middle East Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Supply Woes Keep European Gas Prices High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises over $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Lingering Prospects of Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China Oil Supply Risks Remain Manageable in Near Term — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Middle East Conflict Keeps Supply Disruption Risks Elevated — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- RBA Cautious About Potential for Energy Supply Shocks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Jet Fuel Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+'s April Output Increase Reflects Need to Manage Limited Spare Capacity — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude Oil Hits 9-Month High as Markets Brace for Iran Supply Crisis TradingView
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (37 articles)
- Oil falls as US may intervene in futures market, issues waiver for Russian purchases Reuters
- Stocks set for tough week, oil eyes big gains as Middle East war rages Reuters
- Singapore's Energy-Related CPI Items Could Fluctuate More on Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices rise as Iran conflict widens Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Iran Conflict Barchart
- Middle East Conflict Poses Clear Risk For Sterling — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Halts Rally Amid Hopes of Iran Conflict Talks Trading Economics
- China's Oil Reserves Cushion Impact of Middle East Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Supply Woes Keep European Gas Prices High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China's Mideast Oil, Gas Reliance Highlights Risks From U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises over $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- US oil eyes $77.98; Middle East war to last a few weeks Reuters
- Fed's Williams Sees Oil Prices As Primary Impact From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East War Likely to Drag on U.K. Fiscal Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Dulls Impact of U.K. Spring Statement on Sterling, Gilts — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Risks Wiping Out U.K.'s Fiscal Headroom — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- S&P 500 energy sector eyes record weekly win streak as Middle East risks mount Reuters
- Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Weigh on Emerging Asian Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Are Primary Channel of Mideast Conflict Impact to Financial Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks tumble as Middle East air war fans inflation fears Reuters
- Stock slide as Middle East air war fans inflation fears Reuters
- Oil Rises as Middle East Conflict Keeps Supply Disruption Risks Elevated — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks slide as Middle East conflict fans inflation fears Reuters
- Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Rises On U.S.-Middle East Conflict, But Settles Off Highs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Soar as Middle East Tensions Intensify Trading Economics
- Oil jumps, stocks skid, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Prospects of BOE Rate Cut in March Fall Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Dents Central And Eastern European Currencies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Could Delay Rate Cuts in Central and Eastern Europe — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Eurozone Bond Yields Rise as Middle East Conflict Sparks Inflation Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Could Overshadow U.K. Spring Statement — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil surges, stocks slide, dollar rallies as conflict grips Middle East Reuters
- Oil Prices Have Room to Rise Given Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore Central Bank Could Tighten Policy Sooner Than Later — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Gilt Yields Rise as Middle East Conflict Stokes Inflation Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Balances Geopolitical Risks, Spare Capacity Management — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.97
Daily:
0.2 (0.2%)
Weekly:
1.36 (1.39%)
US_10Y
4.15
Daily:
0.07 (1.62%)
Weekly:
0.18 (4.64%)
SP500
6830.71
Daily:
-38.79 (-0.56%)
Weekly:
-48.17 (-0.7%)
VIX
23.75
Daily:
2.6 (12.29%)
Weekly:
3.89 (19.59%)
GOLD
5141.2
Daily:
21.0 (0.41%)
Weekly:
-89.3 (-1.71%)
COPPER
5.87
Daily:
0.01 (0.22%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-2.27%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$79.88
Closest Support:
$74.78
6.38% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$80.17
0.36% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$60.92
0.382
$64.6
0.5
$67.57
0.618
$70.55
0.786
$74.78
Support
1.0
$80.17
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$87.02
1.618
$95.74
2.0
$105.36
2.618
$120.93
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$81.01
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-05 23:53:56
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.31%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $80.76 | $77.03 | $84.48 |
| 2026-03-07 | $80.67 | $76.94 | $84.39 |
| 2026-03-08 | $80.76 | $77.04 | $84.48 |
| 2026-03-09 | $80.06 | $76.34 | $83.78 |
| 2026-03-10 | $79.92 | $76.2 | $83.64 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.31% for the next trading day (2026-03-06), reaching $80.76.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.0% between 2026-03-06 and 2026-03-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment, with the Brent-WTI spread at $6.74, suggesting a stronger global demand relative to U.S. supply. The support levels may be found around $60.26 (WTI) and $62.31 (ORB), while resistance levels could be near $64.73 (Brent). With managed money positions increasing by +3,915 contracts, there is potential for price volatility, especially as speculative sentiment strengthens. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments and inventory reports closely, as these could lead to short-term price adjustments.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a bullish outlook for crude oil demand growth, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to capitalize on the expected increase in demand, particularly in non-OECD regions. The current inventory levels indicate a tight supply balance, with OECD crude stocks at 1,363 mb, suggesting a favorable environment for pricing. Hedging strategies should be reassessed given the rising Brent-WTI spread, which could impact profitability on physical sales. The recent supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions necessitate a robust risk management approach to ensure operational continuity.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly as WTI and Brent prices are influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The risk of supply reliability is heightened due to the unstable geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East. With crude imports in the U.S. averaging 6.3 mb/d, procurement strategies should include contingency planning for potential price spikes. Given the current market sentiment, it may be prudent to explore hedging options to mitigate cost exposure in the coming months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by strong demand forecasts and tightening supply dynamics. Key factors influencing this outlook include the steady growth in global oil demand at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, alongside geopolitical uncertainties impacting supply chains. The increase in managed money net positions suggests that speculators are betting on rising prices, which could lead to further market volatility. Analysts should continue to monitor the interplay between OPEC production decisions and global economic indicators, as these will significantly shape future market conditions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.