Crude closed Friday at $67.02 WTI (+2.8%), but that was before the U.S./Israel strikes on Iran turned geopolitical premium from “theoretical” to “live fire,” and now the market has to decide how much risk to price into Iran’s 3.3 mbpd of production and the 20% of global oil that flows through Hormuz. The problem for bulls is that underneath the missiles sits surplus math: the IEA still sees a potential ~3.7 mbpd global surplus into 2026, OPEC+ has 1.2 mbpd left to restore, and Venezuela is exporting roughly 800k bpd again. U.S. production remains near record at 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories are +3.2% above the 5-year average, and floating storage of Russian/Iranian crude sits near 290 million barrels. Sunday and Monday opened up in the range of 71.41 and 72.95 - a break above 72.95 points to 76.26 as the next level - but now a gap remains down to 66.84. All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz which to date has not reported any severe events, but an oil tanker has been hit already, insurance companies are cancelling contracts for oil cargos, and rumors on Kharg island attacks (this is the island that exports Iranian crude).
* After Sunday opening up at $75, we dropped back to reality just below the key bull/bear line of 71.41. Breaking down below here likely leads to a gap fill down to $66.84 (note this is what I see as the most likely outcome here this week).
* Wow - Tuesday shot up to $76 on WTI to low $80s on Brent based upon strikes from Iran to US Embassy in Riyadh which raised concerns that the Strait of Hormuz will in fact see disruptions and that many of the countries in the Middle East are headed for a wider expanded conflict/strike/war. The afternoon settled lower based upon a statement made by Trump that the US Navy would offer shipping protection. We exited the day closer to the key 72.95 level.
* Mostly sideways action today as traders are “waiting on Godot” - this is all about headlines - crude oil is stalled in the Strait of Hormuz - if not solved in a week - there will be BIG BIG problems for food, oil, LNG.
* WTI shot up to $81.29 - on continued constraints around the Strait of Hormuz. Further fear and escalation is probable - food and oil is now constrained from the Middle East countries. Also - Thursday and Friday traders are closing any short positions and entering long positions in case there is escalation over the weekend.
* Oil had a PARABOLIC day as the Strait of Hormuz is still shut in and we have escalated rhetoric coming out of the US. Ending the week over $90 as the indications are that Iran will continue the fight and not relent while the US continues to escalate attacks. One thing is clear - the region can not sustain this for too much longer.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-06 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have surged, closing Friday at $67.02 WTI, amid escalating geopolitical tensions following U.S./Israel strikes on Iran. The market now grapples with the potential impact on Iran's 3.3 mbpd production and the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows. Despite a looming global surplus and U.S. production nearing record highs, traders remain cautious, eyeing key support levels. With prices opening above $75, the outlook hinges on developments in the region, suggesting volatility ahead.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$85.41
$4.01
WTI:
$81.01
$6.35
Spread:
$4.4
(Brent premium of $4.40)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
68,385
Weekly Change:
685
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$91.27
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $72.89
MA(20): $68.24
Current Price is 91.27, 9 day MA 72.89, 20 day MA 68.24
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 4.8505
Signal: 2.6484
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 89.19
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 89.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 954,254
Avg (20d): 444,621
Ratio: 2.15
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 95.64
%D: 89.79
Stochastic %K: 95.64, %D: 89.79. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 39.48
+DI: 46.92
-DI: 5.37
ADX: 39.48 (+DI: 46.92, -DI: 5.37). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -4.36
Williams %R: -4.36 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 82.31
Middle: 68.24
Lower: 54.17
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 82.31, Middle: 68.24, Lower: 54.17
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13702.0 | 13502.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6659.0 | 5919.0 | 6435.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3997.0 | 4313.0 | 4188.0 | 4045.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 15841.0 | 15661.0 | 15733.0 | 15207.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2327.0 | 2346.0 | 1731.0 | 2390.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 439279.0 | 435804.0 | 430161.0 | 453606.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684328.0 | 1681393.0 | 1605146.0 | 1605420.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 253130.0 | 254834.0 | 248271.0 | 241547.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120780.0 | 120351.0 | 120472.0 | 119472.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $85.41, change $+4.01. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $81.01, change $+6.35. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.4 (Brent premium of $4.40). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$85.41
4.01
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$81.01
6.35
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.4
Brent premium of $4.40
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, transitioning into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, reduced selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Specific forecasts include:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, steady at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
Key demand drivers include economic growth in emerging markets, while constraints may arise from energy efficiency improvements and alternative energy sources.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Additionally, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, reaching about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Specific trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: Declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key movements include:
- VLCC rates rose significantly, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions
- Aframax rates also showed strong performance, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates rose, particularly in East of Suez, with a 17% increase, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa. Product exports decreased to 7.0 mb/d.
Notable trends include:
- Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average.
Specific stock changes include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb to 1,363 mb
- Product stocks increased by 8.6 mb to 1,481 mb
Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also 0.6 mb/d higher than 2026.
An analysis of the supply-demand balance indicates the following:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The analysis reveals a supply-demand gap, indicating that the DoC requirement will need to be met with increased production from participating countries to maintain market stability. Strategic production decisions will be crucial in addressing this gap.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-03
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-03
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,073,033 contracts (-29,672)
Managed Money Net Position: 68,385 contracts (3.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +685 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 178,669 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -400,996 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.8
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
141
Last Updated:
2026-03-06 23:53:17
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (6 articles)
- Oil Rises on Prospects of Prolonged Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Pressured by Bearish EIA Inventory Report Barchart
- China's Oil Reserves Cushion Impact of Middle East Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Supply Woes Keep European Gas Prices High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises over $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Lingering Prospects of Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (23 articles)
- Crude Prices Surge as Iran War Halts Middle East Crude Shipments Barchart
- Oil falls as US may intervene in futures market, issues waiver for Russian purchases Reuters
- Stocks set for tough week, oil eyes big gains as Middle East war rages Reuters
- Oil Resumes Climb As Middle East Conflict Continues — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Jobs Data Unlikely to Have Big Dollar Impact Amid Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Singapore's Energy-Related CPI Items Could Fluctuate More on Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- WTI oil prices rise as Iran conflict widens Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Supported by Iran Conflict Barchart
- Middle East Conflict Poses Clear Risk For Sterling — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Halts Rally Amid Hopes of Iran Conflict Talks Trading Economics
- China's Oil Reserves Cushion Impact of Middle East Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Supply Woes Keep European Gas Prices High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China's Mideast Oil, Gas Reliance Highlights Risks From U.S.-Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil rises over $1 as Iran crisis disrupts Middle East supply Reuters
- US oil eyes $77.98; Middle East war to last a few weeks Reuters
- Fed's Williams Sees Oil Prices As Primary Impact From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East War Likely to Drag on U.K. Fiscal Outlook — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Dulls Impact of U.K. Spring Statement on Sterling, Gilts — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Risks Wiping Out U.K.'s Fiscal Headroom — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- S&P 500 energy sector eyes record weekly win streak as Middle East risks mount Reuters
- Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Weigh on Emerging Asian Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Are Primary Channel of Mideast Conflict Impact to Financial Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks tumble as Middle East air war fans inflation fears Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.86
Daily:
-0.46 (-0.47%)
Weekly:
0.48 (0.48%)
US_10Y
4.13
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.31%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.1%)
SP500
6740.02
Daily:
-90.69 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-141.6 (-2.06%)
VIX
29.49
Daily:
5.74 (24.17%)
Weekly:
8.05 (37.55%)
GOLD
5181.3
Daily:
116.0 (2.29%)
Weekly:
-113.1 (-2.14%)
COPPER
5.84
Daily:
0.08 (1.47%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-0.97%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$91.27
Closest Support:
$84.56
7.35% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$92.61
1.47% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$63.86
0.382
$69.35
0.5
$73.8
0.618
$78.24
0.786
$84.56
Support
1.0
$92.61
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$102.85
1.618
$115.87
2.0
$130.24
2.618
$153.5
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$81.01
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-06 23:53:20
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.3%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $80.76 | $77.04 | $84.49 |
| 2026-03-07 | $80.67 | $76.95 | $84.39 |
| 2026-03-08 | $80.77 | $77.05 | $84.49 |
| 2026-03-09 | $80.07 | $76.35 | $83.79 |
| 2026-03-10 | $79.91 | $76.19 | $83.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.30% for the next trading day (2026-03-06), reaching $80.76.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.1% between 2026-03-06 and 2026-03-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~9.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market sentiment is bullish, with a sentiment score of +0.800 indicating strong positive momentum. The Brent-WTI spread is at $4.40, reflecting the ongoing differences in global and U.S. supply/demand dynamics, which can provide trading opportunities. The support levels for Brent and WTI are critical to monitor; should prices approach $64.73 for Brent and $60.26 for WTI, they may find resistance. The short-term opportunities may arise from volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could impact supply. Traders should also watch the positioning of managed money, which has increased net long positions, indicating potential for further price increases.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the bullish sentiment prevailing, producers should consider adjusting production planning to capitalize on rising prices, particularly with the demand for DoC crude expected to increase. Current inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial stocks, which could impact market dynamics, suggesting a need for hedging strategies to mitigate potential price downturns. The current price of crude at around $62.31 for the ORB may provide a favorable environment for locking in prices through futures contracts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude oil prices are projected to remain volatile amid geopolitical tensions. The Brent price is currently around $64.73, indicating possible increases in procurement costs. Supply reliability risks are heightened due to ongoing disruptions, particularly in the Middle East, which may affect supply chains. It is advisable for consumers to consider hedging strategies to mitigate these risks and ensure stable procurement costs moving forward.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a confluence of factors: bullish sentiment driven by speculative positioning, a steady increase in global oil demand, and geopolitical uncertainties affecting supply. The fundamental balance indicates a tightening market, with OPEC's production adjustments and rising demand from non-OECD countries. Analysts should monitor the evolving geopolitical landscape and the implications of CFTC positioning, particularly the increase in managed money's net long positions, which may signal a shift in market dynamics. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, but volatility is expected.
Disclaimer: The insights provided here are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.