Crude spent the week trading less like a commodity and more like a hostage negotiation with a futures curve, ripping from $67.02 WTI to above $90 as the market stopped caring about comfortable balances and started obsessing over whether the Strait of Hormuz, the artery for roughly 20% of global oil flows, is functionally closed. The mood is pure headline panic: underneath the fear sits a market that still has record-ish U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories above the 5-year average, Venezuelan barrels back near 800 kbpd, and an IEA surplus view of roughly 3.7 mbpd into 2026, which means the rally is geopolitical premium until proven otherwise. Bulls are asking whether tanker traffic stays frozen, whether Kharg Island or more Gulf infrastructure gets hit, and whether insurers and shipowners decide the region is too dangerous to touch, because that is how a risk premium becomes a real supply shock. Bears are asking whether U.S. naval protection, rerouted cargoes, SPR talk, and simple survival instincts reopen enough flows to puncture the panic and drag WTI back toward the gap near $66.84 once the market remembers math exists. The real question now is not whether oil is tight today, but whether this conflict lasts long enough to turn a fear-driven spike into a genuine inventory drain across crude, products, and LNG, because if Hormuz stays choked for more than days the world economy starts getting mugged by logistics. So the anchor question for crude is brutally simple: are we watching a temporary war premium that collapses as soon as ships move again, or the opening scene of a broader regional supply crisis that sends the market from nervous to feral?
* Crude dropped down all the way back to the low $90s - bringing the crude market back down to earth. Reports that Saudi is shutting in production, plus Kuwait & Iraqi shut ins - this will draw down stocks globally and probably put a higher floor on crude for the rest of 2026 and possibly into 2027. Mondays trading dropped from $119 in overnight trading down to $92 virtually closing the gap. One thing is clear - we could see $120 or $80 soon - with the Strait of Hormuz issues I think $120+ seems very likely.
* Tuesday brought us all the way down to $80 (from $115 on Sunday night) - obviously this is a very tenuous situation and likely to bring extreme volatility (both up and down). Given that the Strait of Hormuz is still not open - $80 is too low imho. A move back up to $96 seems to be likely.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-10 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have recently experienced extreme volatility, soaring from $67.02 to above $90 due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supply. Despite a backdrop of robust U.S. production and healthy gasoline inventories, fears of supply disruptions have driven a speculative risk premium. Market sentiment oscillates between concerns of a prolonged conflict and the potential for a return to normalcy, highlighting the precarious balance between supply and geopolitical risk. Watch for key developments in tanker traffic and Middle East stability, as they will dictate future price movements.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$98.96
$6.27
WTI:
$94.77
$3.87
Spread:
$4.19
(Brent premium of $4.19)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
68,385
Weekly Change:
685
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$83.44
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $78.09
MA(20): $70.74
Current Price is 83.44, 9 day MA 78.09, 20 day MA 70.74
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 6.2193
Signal: 3.9192
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 65.67
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 65.67 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 71,944
Avg (20d): 468,331
Ratio: 0.15
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 35.5
%D: 62.29
Stochastic %K: 35.5, %D: 62.29. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 46.37
+DI: 49.13
-DI: 2.72
ADX: 46.37 (+DI: 49.13, -DI: 2.72). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -64.5
Williams %R: -64.5 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 89.43
Middle: 70.74
Lower: 52.06
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 89.43, Middle: 70.74, Lower: 52.06
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13696.0 | 13702.0 | 13502.0 | 12969.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6659.0 | 5919.0 | 6435.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3997.0 | 4313.0 | 4188.0 | 4045.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 15841.0 | 15661.0 | 15733.0 | 15207.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2327.0 | 2346.0 | 1731.0 | 2390.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 439279.0 | 435804.0 | 430161.0 | 453606.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684328.0 | 1681393.0 | 1605146.0 | 1605420.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 253130.0 | 254834.0 | 248271.0 | 241547.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 120780.0 | 120351.0 | 120472.0 | 119472.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $98.96, change $+6.27. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $94.77, change $+3.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.19 (Brent premium of $4.19). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$98.96
6.27
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$94.77
3.87
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.19
Brent premium of $4.19
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, moving into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The economic outlook for key regions is as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Unchanged at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Remains at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to shape the economic landscape.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Key insights include:
- NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d.
- Crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, in January, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Specific trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses driven by increased heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop
- Singapore: Margins fell due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The tanker market saw strong spot freight rates in January, supported by various factors:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching the highest level in a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions and European refiners seeking replacements for disrupted flows.
- Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m, to a 10-year high.
- In the clean tanker market, rates increased by 17%, m-o-m, on Middle East-to-East routes.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trade flow insights include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight m-o-m decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key details include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase from 2025. The forecast for 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 and 43.6 mb/d in 2027. This gap highlights the strategic need for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-03
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-03
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,073,033 contracts (-29,672)
Managed Money Net Position: 68,385 contracts (3.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +685 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 178,669 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -400,996 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
130
Last Updated:
2026-03-10 23:53:14
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (12 articles)
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Futures Fall Amid Developments That Could Help Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Prospect of Added Supply From Oil Reserves Ease Inflation Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Off Highs As G7 Discusses Tapping Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Reports of Saudi Production Shut-Ins Keep Bid in Crude — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $100 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Surges Above $100 As Gulf Producers Cut Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $110 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- US oil prices jump on supply fears amid expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
- Palm Oil Gains Supported by Biofuel Demand Amid Crude Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (23 articles)
- Shares steady, oil turbulence deepens as Middle East war roils markets Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Gilt Yields Fall on Prospects of Middle East War Coming to an End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Policy Tightening Unlikely Unless Oil Prices Remain High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil falls over 6% as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation Reuters
- Middle East Conflict Puts End to Crude Consolidation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Above $100 A Barrel — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Ten-Year Gilt Yields Hit 6-Month High Amid Middle East War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Swiss Franc Stays Near Highest Level Since 2015 on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict a Showcase of Difficulty to Control a War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Rates Markets Price in Hawkish Central Bank Policy on Oil Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Indonesia's Trade Outlook Darkens Amid Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares slide, oil surges on risk of lengthy Middle East conflict Reuters
- Oil Futures Surge Above $100/bbl Amid Growing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil soars, shares slide in Asia as Middle East conflict rages Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.78
Daily:
-0.4 (-0.4%)
Weekly:
0.01 (0.01%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.37%)
SP500
6781.48
Daily:
-14.51 (-0.21%)
Weekly:
-88.02 (-1.28%)
VIX
24.93
Daily:
-0.57 (-2.24%)
Weekly:
3.78 (17.87%)
GOLD
5216.7
Daily:
125.2 (2.46%)
Weekly:
96.5 (1.88%)
COPPER
5.94
Daily:
0.14 (2.39%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.43%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$83.44
Closest Support:
$79.62
4.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$87.23
4.54% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$70.2
0.382
$79.62
Support
0.5
$87.23
Resistance
0.618
$94.84
0.786
$105.68
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$137.02
1.618
$159.34
2.0
$183.98
2.618
$223.84
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$83.45
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-10 23:53:17
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.77%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $81.97 | $75.16 | $88.79 |
| 2026-03-12 | $81.66 | $74.84 | $88.47 |
| 2026-03-13 | $81.42 | $74.6 | $88.24 |
| 2026-03-14 | $81.84 | $75.02 | $88.66 |
| 2026-03-15 | $82.22 | $75.4 | $89.04 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.77% for the next trading day (2026-03-11), reaching $81.97.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-11 and 2026-03-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the market, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $62.31/b and ICE Brent at $64.73/b. The Brent-WTI spread has strengthened to $4.47/b, suggesting potential short-term trading opportunities as traders capitalize on the price divergence between global and U.S. markets.
The support levels are likely forming around the recent lows, while resistance may be tested near the $65 mark for Brent. Given the increased volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and speculative positioning (with managed money net positions increasing), traders should remain vigilant of potential price corrections.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance of supply and demand indicates stable conditions, with DoC crude demand projected at 43.0 mb/d for 2026. Producers should consider this when planning production levels and hedging strategies to mitigate risks from fluctuating prices. Recent inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial stocks, which could impact market dynamics.
The bearish sentiment in refining margins due to seasonal demand pressures suggests that producers might need to assess their refining operations and optimize output to maintain profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile, with Brent currently at $64.73/b. The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, poses a supply reliability risk, necessitating proactive procurement strategies.
With U.S. product exports declining and crude imports fluctuating, companies should consider hedging strategies to safeguard against rising costs and ensure stable supply chains amidst potential disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, supported by increased speculative positions and strong backwardation in forward curves. Key drivers include stable global demand growth forecasts of 1.4 mb/d for 2026 and a resilient supply outlook, particularly from non-DoC producers.
Analysts should monitor the implications of inventory levels and geopolitical tensions on market dynamics. The overall sentiment remains optimistic, but caution is warranted given potential volatility from supply-side disruptions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.