Crude spent the week trading less like a commodity and more like a hostage negotiation with a futures curve, ripping from $67.02 WTI to above $90 as the market stopped caring about comfortable balances and started obsessing over whether the Strait of Hormuz, the artery for roughly 20% of global oil flows, is functionally closed. The mood is pure headline panic: underneath the fear sits a market that still has record-ish U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories above the 5-year average, Venezuelan barrels back near 800 kbpd, and an IEA surplus view of roughly 3.7 mbpd into 2026, which means the rally is geopolitical premium until proven otherwise. Bulls are asking whether tanker traffic stays frozen, whether Kharg Island or more Gulf infrastructure gets hit, and whether insurers and shipowners decide the region is too dangerous to touch, because that is how a risk premium becomes a real supply shock. Bears are asking whether U.S. naval protection, rerouted cargoes, SPR talk, and simple survival instincts reopen enough flows to puncture the panic and drag WTI back toward the gap near $66.84 once the market remembers math exists. The real question now is not whether oil is tight today, but whether this conflict lasts long enough to turn a fear-driven spike into a genuine inventory drain across crude, products, and LNG, because if Hormuz stays choked for more than days the world economy starts getting mugged by logistics. So the anchor question for crude is brutally simple: are we watching a temporary war premium that collapses as soon as ships move again, or the opening scene of a broader regional supply crisis that sends the market from nervous to feral?
* Crude dropped down all the way back to the low $90s - bringing the crude market back down to earth. Reports that Saudi is shutting in production, plus Kuwait & Iraqi shut ins - this will draw down stocks globally and probably put a higher floor on crude for the rest of 2026 and possibly into 2027. Mondays trading dropped from $119 in overnight trading down to $92 virtually closing the gap. One thing is clear - we could see $120 or $80 soon - with the Strait of Hormuz issues I think $120+ seems very likely.
* Tuesday brought us all the way down to $80 (from $115 on Sunday night) - obviously this is a very tenuous situation and likely to bring extreme volatility (both up and down). Given that the Strait of Hormuz is still not open - $80 is too low imho. A move back up to $96 seems to be likely.
* Wednesday brought a mix of news: EIA shows mogas stocks increasing, distillates flat, crude stocks increasing - so hmmm flat (which bear in mind flat = bearish right now). Middle East tension brought us back up to $85.94 support and seem to be in a range of $89 to $85.94. Headlines will predict the next move….I think it may be a de-escalation of sorts.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-11 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil's recent journey resembles a thrilling roller coaster, soaring from $67 to over $90, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil. Despite robust U.S. production and healthy gasoline inventories, fears of supply disruptions have created a volatility vortex. While bulls speculate on further escalations, bears expect a return to more rational pricing if tensions ease. The market is caught between fear-driven spikes and underlying fundamentals; keep an eye on Hormuz and global supply dynamics!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$87.8
$11.16
WTI:
$83.45
$11.32
Spread:
$4.35
(Brent premium of $4.35)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
68,385
Weekly Change:
685
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$94.55
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $81.35
MA(20): $72.27
Current Price is 94.55, 9 day MA 81.35, 20 day MA 72.27
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 7.0888
Signal: 4.5533
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 73.36
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 73.36 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 97,763
Avg (20d): 495,886
Ratio: 0.2
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 55.39
%D: 49.28
Stochastic %K: 55.39, %D: 49.28. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 47.5
+DI: 45.48
-DI: 6.1
ADX: 47.5 (+DI: 45.48, -DI: 6.1). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -44.61
Williams %R: -44.61 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 93.34
Middle: 72.27
Lower: 51.2
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 93.34, Middle: 72.27, Lower: 51.2
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13678.0 | 13696.0 | 13508.0 | 12958.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6422.0 | 6324.0 | 5813.0 | 5725.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3434.0 | 3997.0 | 4136.0 | 3821.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16169.0 | 15841.0 | 15387.0 | 15588.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2988.0 | 2327.0 | 1677.0 | 1904.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 443103.0 | 439279.0 | 433775.0 | 454093.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1682368.0 | 1684328.0 | 1600552.0 | 1601507.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 249476.0 | 253130.0 | 246838.0 | 237060.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 119431.0 | 120780.0 | 119154.0 | 118402.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $87.8, change $-11.16. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $83.45, change $-11.32. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.35 (Brent premium of $4.35). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$87.8
11.16
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$83.45
11.32
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.35
Brent premium of $4.35
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, as hedge funds and other money managers sharply increased their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The economic outlook for major economies is as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth rates moving forward.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This trend is expected to continue into 2027. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries indicates a growth of 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses primarily from the bottom section of the barrel
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key developments include:
- VLCC spot freight rates increased significantly, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, due to weather disruptions
- Aframax rates also saw a strong performance, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates increased, particularly in the East of Suez
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d to average 4.2 mb/d. Notable trends include:
- OECD Europe: Decline in crude imports, m-o-m, due to lower flows from Kazakhstan
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight m-o-m decline
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-03
Managed Money
68,385
Change: +685
3.3% of OI
Producer/Merchant
178,669
Change: +47,906
8.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-400,996
Change: -53,450
-19.3% of OI
Open Interest
2,073,033
Change: -29,672
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-03
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,073,033 contracts (-29,672)
Managed Money Net Position: 68,385 contracts (3.3% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +685 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 178,669 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -400,996 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.8
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
175
Last Updated:
2026-03-11 23:53:10
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.8
Top News Topics
Supply (20 articles)
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- BBG: PRES TRUMP TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO RESTART OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING FACILITIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mace News
- Shifting Energy Supply Seen as Most Durable Solution to Energy Shock for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA Plan to Release Oil Reserves Could Lower Prices by $7 a Barrel, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Market Weighs Mixed Messages on Hormuz, IEA Proposes Record Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Mixed as Traders Digest IEA's Proposal to Release Strategic Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Slides Further After G-7 Asks to Ready Plans to Tap Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Fall Amid Developments That Could Help Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Prospect of Added Supply From Oil Reserves Ease Inflation Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Off Highs As G7 Discusses Tapping Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Reports of Saudi Production Shut-Ins Keep Bid in Crude — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $100 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Surges Above $100 As Gulf Producers Cut Output — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Surpass $110 Amid Supply Disruptions Trading Economics
- US oil prices jump on supply fears amid expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran Reuters
Demand (1 articles)
- Palm Oil Gains Supported by Biofuel Demand Amid Crude Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (29 articles)
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- Asian Oil, Gas Firms' Downstream Costs Could Rise if Mideast Conflict Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares steady, oil turbulence deepens over Middle East war fears Reuters
- Shares steady, oil turbulence deepens as Middle East war roils markets Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- War Trading Shows 'Policy Reflexivity' — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise if Middle East Conflict Escalates — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat on Hopes for Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Gilt Yields Fall on Prospects of Middle East War Coming to an End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Policy Tightening Unlikely Unless Oil Prices Remain High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil falls over 6% as Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation Reuters
- Middle East Conflict Puts End to Crude Consolidation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Keeps Oil Above $100 A Barrel — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Oil Shut-Ins Raise Risk of Lasting Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Ten-Year Gilt Yields Hit 6-Month High Amid Middle East War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Swiss Franc Stays Near Highest Level Since 2015 on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Unlikely to Structurally Damage Global Oil Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict a Showcase of Difficulty to Control a War — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Rates Markets Price in Hawkish Central Bank Policy on Oil Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Drag on Oil Supply Could Remain Beyond Middle East Conflict's Duration — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Indonesia's Trade Outlook Darkens Amid Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares slide, oil surges on risk of lengthy Middle East conflict Reuters
- Oil Futures Surge Above $100/bbl Amid Growing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil soars, shares slide in Asia as Middle East conflict rages Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.47
Daily:
0.64 (0.65%)
Weekly:
0.15 (0.15%)
US_10Y
4.21
Daily:
0.07 (1.74%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.5%)
SP500
6775.8
Daily:
-5.68 (-0.08%)
Weekly:
-54.91 (-0.8%)
VIX
24.23
Daily:
-0.7 (-2.81%)
Weekly:
0.48 (2.02%)
GOLD
5157.0
Daily:
-72.7 (-1.39%)
Weekly:
91.7 (1.81%)
COPPER
5.84
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.12%)
Weekly:
0.09 (1.48%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$94.55
Closest Support:
$87.23
7.74% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$94.84
0.31% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$70.2
0.382
$79.62
0.5
$87.23
Support
0.618
$94.84
Resistance
0.786
$105.68
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$137.02
1.618
$159.34
2.0
$183.98
2.618
$223.84
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$87.25
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-11 23:53:12
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.19%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | $87.42 | $80.53 | $94.31 |
| 2026-03-13 | $86.62 | $79.73 | $93.51 |
| 2026-03-14 | $86.77 | $79.88 | $93.66 |
| 2026-03-15 | $87.08 | $80.18 | $93.97 |
| 2026-03-16 | $86.94 | $80.05 | $93.83 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.19% for the next trading day (2026-03-12), reaching $87.42.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-12 and 2026-03-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market conditions indicate a bullish sentiment overall, supported by a $62.31/b OPEC Reference Basket value and a $64.73/b average for ICE Brent. The Brent-WTI spread has increased to $4.35, suggesting a tightening in the supply-demand dynamics, particularly in the U.S. As the market moves into stronger backwardation, traders should monitor for potential volatility driven by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand fluctuations.
With managed money net positions increasing to 68,385 contracts, there is a growing bullish trend among speculators. Traders should look for short-term opportunities, especially if prices test Fibonacci resistance levels around $65.00/b for Brent. Conversely, a failure to maintain these levels could indicate a potential pullback.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The ongoing bullish market sentiment and increasing global oil demand forecast of 1.4 mb/d in 2026 suggest a favorable environment for production planning. However, with 439 tb/d decrease in OPEC production in January, producers must assess their hedging strategies carefully to mitigate risks associated with potential supply disruptions.
The current inventory levels, with OECD crude stocks at 1,363 mb, indicate a healthy supply buffer. Producers should consider this when planning their production schedules and hedging against price volatility, particularly as geopolitical tensions may impact supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude prices currently at $60.26/b for WTI and $64.73/b for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to affect supply reliability, particularly for regions dependent on Middle Eastern crude.
The decline in refining margins, driven by elevated feedstock prices, indicates that refineries may face increased costs. Consumers should consider adjusting their procurement strategies and possibly implement hedging to mitigate the impact of rising crude prices on operational costs.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting bullish fundamentals, supported by stable global economic growth forecasts and an increase in oil demand. The balance of supply and demand remains tight, particularly with OPEC's recent production cuts and increasing demand from non-OECD countries.
However, the geopolitical landscape presents uncertainties that could shift market dynamics rapidly. Analysts should closely monitor CFTC positioning data, as the increase in managed money net positions could signal potential market reversals if extreme positioning occurs. Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a need for continuous assessment of external factors influencing market conditions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on the provided data and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.