Crude is trading like a market that suddenly realized the plumbing of the global oil system matters as much as the barrels themselves. WTI exploded from $67.02 to an intraday high near $119.48 after strikes in Iran and attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally moves roughly 20–21 million barrels per day of crude and products, about 20% of global supply. Even after the panic cooled, prices are still hovering in the mid-$80s to low-$90s, which is remarkable considering the underlying fundamentals still show U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories about 5% above the five-year average, and global balances that previously pointed to a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026. The difference now is logistics risk: if tankers cannot move freely and Gulf producers begin shutting in wells due to staffing, power, or injection disruptions, the narrative shifts from shipping delays to actual upstream supply loss. Strategic reserve releases totaling 400 million barrels globally help cushion the blow, but even spread over months that only replaces 2–3 mbpd, far short of the flows that normally pass through Hormuz. In Rogue terms the math is simple: if the Strait stays impaired, crude probably hunts $96 first and could easily revisit $110–$120, because once the market starts worrying about real supply losses instead of headlines, it stops trading fear and starts trading scarcity.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-13 23:56
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil's recent surge reflects a newfound awareness of the global oil system's vulnerabilities, especially following geopolitical tensions in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global supply. Prices have spiked from $67 to the low $90s, despite higher U.S. production and gasoline inventories. The market's shift from fearing headlines to actual supply risks could push prices to $96 or even revisit $110–$120 if logistical challenges persist. Keep an eye on the geopolitical landscape—it’s the new oil drumbeat!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$100.46
$8.48
WTI:
$95.73
$8.48
Spread:
$4.73
(Brent premium of $4.73)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
92,122
Weekly Change:
23,737
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$99.31
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $86.85
MA(20): $75.28
Current Price is 99.31, 9 day MA 86.85, 20 day MA 75.28
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 8.1827
Signal: 5.6494
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 76.23
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 76.23 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 406,769
Avg (20d): 530,212
Ratio: 0.77
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 63.9
%D: 54.58
Stochastic %K: 63.9, %D: 54.58. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 51.64
+DI: 45.9
-DI: 5.41
ADX: 51.64 (+DI: 45.9, -DI: 5.41). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -36.1
Williams %R: -36.1 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 99.37
Middle: 75.28
Lower: 51.2
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 99.37, Middle: 75.28, Lower: 51.2
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13678.0 | 13696.0 | 13508.0 | 12958.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6422.0 | 6324.0 | 5813.0 | 5725.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3434.0 | 3997.0 | 4136.0 | 3821.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16169.0 | 15841.0 | 15387.0 | 15588.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2988.0 | 2327.0 | 1677.0 | 1904.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 443103.0 | 439279.0 | 433775.0 | 454093.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1682368.0 | 1684328.0 | 1600552.0 | 1601507.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 249476.0 | 253130.0 | 246838.0 | 237060.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 119431.0 | 120780.0 | 119154.0 | 118402.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $100.46, change $+8.48. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $95.73, change $+8.48. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.73 (Brent premium of $4.73). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$100.46
8.48
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$95.73
8.48
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.73
Brent premium of $4.73
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth for both years
- China: 4.5% growth for both years
- India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d, with similar growth anticipated in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures.
- US Gulf Coast: Margins fell due to increased heavy crude supply affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, particularly gasoline.
- Singapore: Declines driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- VLCC spot freight rates increased significantly, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions.
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates were up by 17%, m-o-m, on Middle East-to-East routes.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to 4.2 mb/d, primarily to Europe and Africa.
Key developments include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined m-o-m due to lower flows from Kazakhstan.
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline, m-o-m.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average, but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average.
Breakdown of inventory changes:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is assessed at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. The demand for 2027 remains at 43.6 mb/d, also 0.6 mb/d higher than the previous year.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap of 43.0 mb/d for DoC crude in 2026, necessitating strategic production decisions to ensure market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-10
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,051,321 contracts (-21,712)
Managed Money Net Position: 92,122 contracts (4.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,737 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 212,558 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -489,005 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
189
Last Updated:
2026-03-13 23:54:27
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (18 articles)
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production At Libya's Mabruk Oil Field dpa-AFX
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Faces Limits on Timing, Product Mix — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Pace of Oil Reserves Release Key to Determining Effectiveness — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA's Oil Reserve Release Plan Likely Falls Short of Filling Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- Oil Futures Gain Despite IEA's Planned Release of Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BBG: PRES TRUMP TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO RESTART OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING FACILITIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mace News
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Likely Already Priced In — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Little Changed After IEA Confirmed Huge Release of Oil Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shifting Energy Supply Seen as Most Durable Solution to Energy Shock for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA Plan to Release Oil Reserves Could Lower Prices by $7 a Barrel, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Market Weighs Mixed Messages on Hormuz, IEA Proposes Record Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Mixed as Traders Digest IEA's Proposal to Release Strategic Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- Oil Slides Further After G-7 Asks to Ready Plans to Tap Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
- Canadian Exports, Wholesale Trade Cast Doubt on GDP Flash Estimate — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Palm Oil Gains Supported by Biofuel Demand Amid Crude Surge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (31 articles)
- Stocks slip, dollar strong as Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher Reuters
- Stocks mixed, dollar up as Iran conflict keeps oil prices high Reuters
- Stocks rise on lower oil prices, though Iran conflict clouds outlook Reuters
- Oil Prices Continue to Rise, US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions Trading Economics
- Japan Has to Be More Cautious About Economic Impact of Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil drops after US issues license for countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for 30 days Reuters
- Dollar Could Rise Further Even if Middle East Conflict Eases — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Likely to Remain Lifted During Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Risks Well Shut-Ins if Middle East Disruptions Persist — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China Likely More Exposed to Potential Global Slowdown Than Oil Shock From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Middle East Conflict Boosts Oil Prices, Safe Havens — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Hinge on Middle East Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- High Oil Prices Could Trigger Policy Tightening in Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Markets Not Fully Pricing in Disruption Posed by Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bitcoin Stays Weaker as Iran Conflict Weighs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Oil, Gas Firms' Downstream Costs Could Rise if Mideast Conflict Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares steady, oil turbulence deepens over Middle East war fears Reuters
- Shares steady, oil turbulence deepens as Middle East war roils markets Reuters
- US oil prices up 5% as Middle East crisis constrains supply Reuters
- War Trading Shows 'Policy Reflexivity' — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Could Rise if Middle East Conflict Escalates — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Retreat on Hopes for Quick End to Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Remain Higher Than Pre-Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Gilt Yields Fall on Prospects of Middle East War Coming to an End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Conflict Likely to Be Short-Term Event — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Sterling Rises After Trump Suggests Middle East Conflict Could Soon End — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Continues to Cast Uncertainty Over Oil Market — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.5
Daily:
0.76 (0.76%)
Weekly:
1.32 (1.33%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.01 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.15 (3.6%)
SP500
6632.19
Daily:
-40.43 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-163.8 (-2.41%)
VIX
27.19
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.37%)
Weekly:
1.69 (6.63%)
GOLD
5023.1
Daily:
-92.7 (-1.81%)
Weekly:
-68.4 (-1.34%)
COPPER
5.68
Daily:
-0.15 (-2.57%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.16%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$99.31
Closest Support:
$94.84
4.5% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$105.68
6.41% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$70.2
0.382
$79.62
0.5
$87.23
0.618
$94.84
Support
0.786
$105.68
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$137.02
1.618
$159.34
2.0
$183.98
2.618
$223.84
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$98.71
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-13 23:54:29
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.99%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | $97.73 | $90.44 | $105.03 |
| 2026-03-15 | $97.34 | $90.04 | $104.64 |
| 2026-03-16 | $98.2 | $90.91 | $105.5 |
| 2026-03-17 | $98.87 | $91.57 | $106.16 |
| 2026-03-18 | $98.91 | $91.61 | $106.2 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.99% for the next trading day (2026-03-14), reaching $97.73.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.2% between 2026-03-14 and 2026-03-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market indicators suggest a bullish sentiment in crude oil prices, with the Brent crude settling at $100.46 and WTI at $95.73. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.73 reflects ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics, which could present short-term opportunities for traders. The strengthening of forward curves indicates potential for further upward movement in prices, particularly as speculative positions increase.
Traders should monitor for potential resistance levels which may emerge around the recent highs, while Fibonacci retracement levels could provide guidance on potential pullbacks. The convergence of bullish sentiment with increasing long positions among managed money traders may lead to heightened volatility, thus necessitating close attention to market movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the current inventory levels, which show a mixed picture with crude stocks decreasing while product stocks are on the rise. The positive market sentiment and projected demand growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2026 supports a favorable environment for production planning. However, with DoC crude demand remaining steady at 43.0 mb/d, maintaining efficient production and hedging strategies will be crucial to mitigate potential price fluctuations.
Producers may benefit from locking in prices through hedging, especially given the geopolitical uncertainties and potential supply disruptions. Continued monitoring of the market sentiment, especially the bullish positioning among speculators, can inform production and investment decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain elevated, with Brent crossing $100/bbl. The recent increase in US crude imports indicates a steady supply, yet geopolitical tensions may pose risks to supply reliability. The increased product stocks may provide some buffer against price spikes, but consumers should remain vigilant about procurement strategies.
Given the current market sentiment, it may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging options to manage exposure to rising costs, particularly in light of the overall market outlook and the potential for increased demand in the coming months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by a bullish sentiment driven by robust demand forecasts and a tightening supply outlook. Key factors include the projected global oil demand growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2026 and a steady increase in non-DoC production, primarily from Brazil and the US. The inventory dynamics indicate a complex interplay between crude and product stocks, with implications for pricing strategies.
Additionally, the geopolitical landscape remains a significant driver of market volatility, necessitating close monitoring of news sentiment and positioning data. Analysts should remain alert to shifts in market dynamics, particularly as speculative positions among managed money traders could signal potential price corrections or accelerations.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes