Crude is trading like a market that suddenly realized the plumbing of the global oil system matters as much as the barrels themselves. WTI exploded from $67.02 to an intraday high near $119.48 after strikes in Iran and attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally moves roughly 20–21 million barrels per day of crude and products, about 20% of global supply. Even after the panic cooled, prices are still hovering in the mid-$80s to low-$90s, which is remarkable considering the underlying fundamentals still show U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories about 5% above the five-year average, and global balances that previously pointed to a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026. The difference now is logistics risk: if tankers cannot move freely and Gulf producers begin shutting in wells due to staffing, power, or injection disruptions, the narrative shifts from shipping delays to actual upstream supply loss. Strategic reserve releases totaling 400 million barrels globally help cushion the blow, but even spread over months that only replaces 2–3 mbpd, far short of the flows that normally pass through Hormuz. In Rogue terms the math is simple: if the Strait stays impaired, crude probably hunts $96 first and could easily revisit $110–$120, because once the market starts worrying about real supply losses instead of headlines, it stops trading fear and starts trading scarcity. US attacked Kharg Island - only the military targets but this is clearly an attempt as escalation while Iran is holding the cards right now with the Strait of Hormuz.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-14 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has seen a dramatic rise, soaring from $67.02 to near $119.48, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route for 20% of global supply. Currently, prices hover in the mid-$80s to low-$90s despite U.S. production at 13.7 mbpd and gasoline inventories above average. If logistical issues persist, the market could shift from fears of delays to real supply losses, pushing prices potentially towards $110-$120 amidst growing scarcity concerns.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$103.14
$2.68
WTI:
$98.71
$2.98
Spread:
$4.43
(Brent premium of $4.43)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
92,122
Weekly Change:
23,737
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$98.71
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $86.78
MA(20): $75.25
Current Price is 98.71, 9 day MA 86.78, 20 day MA 75.25
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 8.1349
Signal: 5.6398
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 75.93
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 75.93 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 406,769
Avg (20d): 530,212
Ratio: 0.77
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 62.83
%D: 54.22
Stochastic %K: 62.83, %D: 54.22. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 51.64
+DI: 45.9
-DI: 5.41
ADX: 51.64 (+DI: 45.9, -DI: 5.41). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -37.17
Williams %R: -37.17 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 99.22
Middle: 75.25
Lower: 51.29
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 99.22, Middle: 75.25, Lower: 51.29
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13678.0 | 13696.0 | 13508.0 | 12958.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6422.0 | 6324.0 | 5813.0 | 5725.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3434.0 | 3997.0 | 4136.0 | 3821.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16169.0 | 15841.0 | 15387.0 | 15588.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2988.0 | 2327.0 | 1677.0 | 1904.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 443103.0 | 439279.0 | 433775.0 | 454093.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1682368.0 | 1684328.0 | 1600552.0 | 1601507.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 249476.0 | 253130.0 | 246838.0 | 237060.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 119431.0 | 120780.0 | 119154.0 | 118402.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $103.14, change $+2.68. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $98.71, change $+2.98. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.43 (Brent premium of $4.43). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$103.14
2.68
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$98.71
2.98
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.43
Brent premium of $4.43
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecast is stable at 1.2% for both years. Japan's economic growth is forecasted at 0.9% for both years, while China's remains at 4.5%. India is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's growth forecast is steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's forecasts are 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop. Singapore also saw a decline due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching the highest level in a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly. In the clean tanker market, rates increased, particularly in the East of Suez.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined due to lower flows from Kazakhstan. Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher y-o-y and 44.1 mb above the five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. In 2027, the demand for DoC crude is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the upcoming years:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions moving forward to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-10
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,051,321 contracts (-21,712)
Managed Money Net Position: 92,122 contracts (4.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,737 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 212,558 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -489,005 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
136
Last Updated:
2026-03-14 23:53:03
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (14 articles)
- TotalEnergies Restarts Production At Libya's Mabruk Oil Field dpa-AFX
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Faces Limits on Timing, Product Mix — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Pace of Oil Reserves Release Key to Determining Effectiveness — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA's Oil Reserve Release Plan Likely Falls Short of Filling Supply Losses — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- Oil Futures Gain Despite IEA's Planned Release of Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BBG: PRES TRUMP TO INVOKE DEFENSE PRODUCTION ACT TO RESTART OFFSHORE OIL DRILLING FACILITIES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Mace News
- IEA Oil Reserves Release Likely Already Priced In — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Little Changed After IEA Confirmed Huge Release of Oil Reserves — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shifting Energy Supply Seen as Most Durable Solution to Energy Shock for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- IEA Plan to Release Oil Reserves Could Lower Prices by $7 a Barrel, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises as Market Weighs Mixed Messages on Hormuz, IEA Proposes Record Reserves Release — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Canadian Exports, Wholesale Trade Cast Doubt on GDP Flash Estimate — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (21 articles)
- Stocks slip, dollar strong as Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher Reuters
- Stocks mixed, dollar up as Iran conflict keeps oil prices high Reuters
- Stocks rise on lower oil prices, though Iran conflict clouds outlook Reuters
- Oil Prices Continue to Rise, US Eases Russian Oil Sanctions Trading Economics
- Japan Has to Be More Cautious About Economic Impact of Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil drops after US issues license for countries to buy Russian oil stranded at sea for 30 days Reuters
- Dollar Could Rise Further Even if Middle East Conflict Eases — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Likely to Remain Lifted During Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Risks Well Shut-Ins if Middle East Disruptions Persist — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- China Likely More Exposed to Potential Global Slowdown Than Oil Shock From Iran Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Dollar Rises as Middle East Conflict Boosts Oil Prices, Safe Havens — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Hinge on Middle East Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- High Oil Prices Could Trigger Policy Tightening in Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- LNG Supply Risks From Mideast Conflict Could Be Bigger Concern for Asia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Markets Not Fully Pricing in Disruption Posed by Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Ongoing Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- US Crude futures up over 2.9% amid Middle East crisis supply disruptions Reuters
- OPEC+ Output Surged in February but Gulf Conflict to Hit March Supply, Kpler Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Bitcoin Stays Weaker as Iran Conflict Weighs — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Asian Oil, Gas Firms' Downstream Costs Could Rise if Mideast Conflict Persists — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Shares steady, oil turbulence deepens over Middle East war fears Reuters
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.5
Daily:
0.76 (0.76%)
Weekly:
1.32 (1.33%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.01 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.15 (3.6%)
SP500
6632.19
Daily:
-40.43 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-163.8 (-2.41%)
VIX
27.19
Daily:
-0.1 (-0.37%)
Weekly:
1.69 (6.63%)
GOLD
5061.7
Daily:
-54.1 (-1.06%)
Weekly:
-29.8 (-0.59%)
COPPER
5.76
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.16%)
Weekly:
-0.04 (-0.75%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$98.71
Closest Support:
$94.84
3.92% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$105.68
7.06% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$54.98
0.236
$70.2
0.382
$79.62
0.5
$87.23
0.618
$94.84
Support
0.786
$105.68
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$137.02
1.618
$159.34
2.0
$183.98
2.618
$223.84
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$98.71
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-14 23:53:05
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.98%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | $97.74 | $90.45 | $105.04 |
| 2026-03-15 | $97.35 | $90.05 | $104.64 |
| 2026-03-16 | $98.21 | $90.92 | $105.51 |
| 2026-03-17 | $98.88 | $91.59 | $106.18 |
| 2026-03-18 | $98.92 | $91.63 | $106.22 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.98% for the next trading day (2026-03-14), reaching $97.74.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.2% between 2026-03-14 and 2026-03-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~14.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment, driven by increasing long positions among hedge funds, reflecting a potential for upward price movement. The $62.31/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the $64.73/b for ICE Brent indicate a strengthening market. The $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread signals ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, potentially providing trading opportunities.
Traders should watch for support levels around the $60/b mark for WTI and $62/b for Brent, while resistance levels could emerge near $65/b for Brent. Increased volatility is anticipated due to geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance of supply and demand indicates a stable outlook for production planning with demand for DoC crude expected to rise to 43.0 mb/d in 2026. Producers should consider hedging strategies as prices strengthen, especially with the $62.31/b average for OPEC Reference Basket, which may provide favorable pricing opportunities.
The increase in crude inventories, particularly the 2,845 mb in OECD commercial stocks, suggests a need for careful inventory management to avoid oversupply risks in a potentially bearish market correction.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI averaging $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The geopolitical tensions and the risk of supply disruptions could impact procurement strategies.
With refining margins declining due to increased feedstock prices, procurement strategies may need to adapt to ensure cost-effectiveness. Monitoring inventory levels will be crucial, especially with 6.3 mb/d US crude imports remaining stable, indicating a reliable supply.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, driven by robust demand forecasts and increasing speculative positions. Key driving factors include a stable global economic growth forecast of 3.1% and rising demand from non-OECD countries.
However, the decline in refining margins and fluctuations in inventory levels present risks that could shift market dynamics. Analysts should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and their impact on supply chains, as these could significantly influence price stability and market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.