Crude is trading like a market that suddenly realized the plumbing of the global oil system matters as much as the barrels themselves. WTI exploded from $67.02 to an intraday high near $119.48 after strikes in Iran and attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally moves roughly 20–21 million barrels per day of crude and products, about 20% of global supply. Even after the panic cooled, prices are still hovering in the mid-$80s to low-$90s, which is remarkable considering the underlying fundamentals still show U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories about 5% above the five-year average, and global balances that previously pointed to a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026. The difference now is logistics risk: if tankers cannot move freely and Gulf producers begin shutting in wells due to staffing, power, or injection disruptions, the narrative shifts from shipping delays to actual upstream supply loss. Strategic reserve releases totaling 400 million barrels globally help cushion the blow, but even spread over months that only replaces 2–3 mbpd, far short of the flows that normally pass through Hormuz. In Rogue terms the math is simple: if the Strait stays impaired, crude probably hunts $96 first and could easily revisit $110–$120, because once the market starts worrying about real supply losses instead of headlines, it stops trading fear and starts trading scarcity. US attacked Kharg Island - only the military targets but this is clearly an attempt as escalation while Iran is holding the cards right now with the Strait of Hormuz.
* WTI backed off as news of some cargos going through the Strait with Iranian approval while the US is calling to have other nations “help us protect” the tankers. The market is pricing in some reduced risk as some project that the US will back off here as Iran turns up the escalation trap.
* Tuesday was more of a consolidation day bouncing between 94 and 97 - reactions based on news around the Strait of Hormuz
* Wednesday was up based upon rumbles on Iran targeting Qatar (warning went out for potential counterstrikes) - crude went up but spending much of the day moving from 92 to 97 while settling the day out around 96.
* Brent-WTI trading around $13 delta (down from $15) but Oil is trading off based upon rumors that the US mulling over lifting sanctions on stranded Iranian Oil - could this be signaling de-escalation moves? Publicly there is only escalation; Military action on both sides is only escalation - but beneath the surface there are rumblings that the US is looking for an exit.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-19 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have surged amid geopolitical tensions, with WTI skyrocketing from $67.02 to nearly $119.48, largely due to risks in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil transit route. Despite recent pullbacks, prices remain in the $80s, influenced by U.S. production at 13.7 mbpd and gasoline inventories above the five-year average. The market is now focused on potential supply disruptions rather than just headlines, with forecasts suggesting crude could reach $96 or higher if logistics issues persist. Watch for developments in U.S.-Iran relations and supply adjustments.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$107.38
$3.96
WTI:
$96.32
$0.11
Spread:
$11.06
(Brent premium of $11.06)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
92,122
Weekly Change:
23,737
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$93.62
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $93.28
MA(20): $81.39
Current Price is 93.62, 9 day MA 93.28, 20 day MA 81.39
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 8.3033
Signal: 7.2686
Days since crossover: 15
MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 65.52
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 65.52 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 36,580
Avg (20d): 538,927
Ratio: 0.07
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 48.57
%D: 54.84
Stochastic %K: 48.57, %D: 54.84. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 59.07
+DI: 39.64
-DI: 4.16
ADX: 59.07 (+DI: 39.64, -DI: 4.16). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -51.43
Williams %R: -51.43 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 106.58
Middle: 81.39
Lower: 56.21
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 106.58, Middle: 81.39, Lower: 56.21
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13668.0 | 13678.0 | 13575.0 | 12991.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 7194.0 | 6422.0 | 5470.0 | 5945.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4898.0 | 3434.0 | 3290.0 | 4819.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16232.0 | 16169.0 | 15708.0 | 15608.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2296.0 | 2988.0 | 2180.0 | 1126.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 449259.0 | 443103.0 | 435223.0 | 454396.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1682813.0 | 1682368.0 | 1594870.0 | 1596865.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 244040.0 | 249476.0 | 241101.0 | 233648.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116904.0 | 119431.0 | 117595.0 | 116569.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $107.38, change $+3.96. WTI crude (APR 26) settled at $96.32, change $+0.11. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $11.06 (Brent premium of $11.06). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$107.38
3.96
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$96.32
0.11
(APR 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$11.06
Brent premium of $11.06
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
- Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
- The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, indicating a shift into stronger backwardation for ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI.
- Physical market fundamentals, including oil supply outages and easing selling pressure from speculators, supported front-month contracts.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The economic outlook for major economies is as follows:
- US: Growth forecast revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone: Growth forecast remains at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan: Growth forecast remains at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
- China: Growth forecast remains at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
- India: Growth forecast remains at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil: Growth forecast remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
- Russia: Growth forecast remains at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d.
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven by:
- Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is expected to grow similarly. Additionally, NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to:
- Stronger feedstock prices.
- Seasonal demand-side pressures.
Specific regional trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: Declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors:
- Weather disruptions.
- Geopolitical uncertainties.
- Unplanned outages.
Key movements include:
- VLCC spot freight rates rose significantly, with Middle East-to-East route rates up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions.
- Aframax rates also saw a strong performance, reaching a 10-year high.
Clean tanker market rates showed strong performance, particularly in the East of Suez.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trends include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- OECD Europe saw a decline in crude imports, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan.
- China’s crude imports surged to a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India’s crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d.
An analysis of the supply-demand balance reveals the following:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The supply-demand gap indicates a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d in 2026, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-10
Managed Money
92,122
Change: +23,737
4.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
212,558
Change: +33,889
10.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-489,005
Change: -88,009
-23.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,051,321
Change: -21,712
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,051,321 contracts (-21,712)
Managed Money Net Position: 92,122 contracts (4.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +23,737 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 212,558 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -489,005 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
140
Last Updated:
2026-03-19 23:53:15
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (11 articles)
- Oil falls as US and allies look to boost supply, unchoke Strait of Hormuz Reuters
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Drops as Supply Concerns Ease Trading Economics
- Dollar Firms as Oil Price Rebounds on Supply Disruption Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Lingering Supply Concerns Trading Economics
- Oil gains over 2% as market weighs Iran war supply risks Reuters
- Oil Rises Amid Ongoing Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Lingering Supply Concerns Trading Economics
- Supply Shortage Will Need to Persist to Support Current Oil Price Level — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Brent Tops $105 on Supply Risks Despite Trump's Call for Hormuz Coalition — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Supply Uncertainty Will Likely Keep Euro Weak Versus Dollar — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (2 articles)
Infrastructure (3 articles)
- TEXT: Pres Trump's posting re Israel bombing of Iran's South Pars Gas Field, Iran's bombing of Qatar's LNG facility and threatened US retaliation Mace News
- Crude Oil Prices Retreat as Several Tankers Sail Through the Strait of Hormuz Barchart
- PRES TRUMP: REPEATS, 'STRONGLY ENCOURAGE OTHER NATIONS ... TO HELP US' PROTECT TANKERS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ; SOME W/US TROOPS STATIONED DECLINED Mace News
Geopolitical (16 articles)
- Stocks slump on worsening war in Middle East; frail yen in focus Reuters
- Oil rises 3% after Iran strikes Middle East energy facilities Reuters
- Stocks slump, oil gains on worsening war in Middle East Reuters
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Widening Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Gain as Iran Threatens Attacks on Middle Eastern Energy Infrastructure Barchart
- Crude Oil Jumps as Iran Said it Will Target Middle Eastern Oil Infrastructure Barchart
- Shares fall as oil jumps on Middle East tensions before Fed Reuters
- Signs of Market Fatigue About Middle East Conflict Emerge — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Seems to Be Pricing in Supply Disruptions, Not Just Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Holds Gains as Iran Conflict Persists Trading Economics
- Crude Rises as Conflict Spreads to More Middle Eastern Oil Fields — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Rallies as Iranian Attacks Disrupt Middle Eastern Supplies Barchart
- Middle East Conflict to Delay BOE Rate Cuts, Hikes Look Unlikely — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Gain as Iran Renews Attacks on Middle East Energy Infrastructure Barchart
- Asian Growth Likely Hit Hard by Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- ING Adjusts Forecasts for Oil Depending on Conflict Length — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.43
Daily:
-0.66 (-0.66%)
Weekly:
-0.93 (-0.93%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.02 (0.52%)
Weekly:
-0.0 (-0.09%)
SP500
6606.49
Daily:
-18.21 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
-25.7 (-0.39%)
VIX
24.06
Daily:
-1.03 (-4.11%)
Weekly:
-3.13 (-11.51%)
GOLD
4732.8
Daily:
-157.1 (-3.21%)
Weekly:
-319.7 (-6.33%)
COPPER
5.55
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-2.94%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$93.62
Closest Support:
$87.62
6.41% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$95.14
1.62% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$55.76
0.236
$70.8
0.382
$80.1
0.5
$87.62
Support
0.618
$95.14
Resistance
0.786
$105.84
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.81
1.618
$158.86
2.0
$183.2
2.618
$222.58
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$96.14
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-19 23:53:17
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.52%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | $95.64 | $88.02 | $103.27 |
| 2026-03-21 | $95.94 | $88.31 | $103.56 |
| 2026-03-22 | $96.0 | $88.37 | $103.62 |
| 2026-03-23 | $95.94 | $88.31 | $103.57 |
| 2026-03-24 | $95.89 | $88.26 | $103.51 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.52% for the next trading day (2026-03-20), reaching $95.64.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-20 and 2026-03-24.
- The average confidence interval width is ~15.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, as indicated by a significant increase in managed money net positions (+23,737 contracts), suggests potential upward price momentum. The $62.31/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a support level for prices, while the $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing market dynamics influenced by supply and demand discrepancies. Traders should monitor for potential volatility risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations, particularly with the bearish news sentiment around supply boosts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions require producers to reassess their hedging strategies in light of the bearish news sentiment affecting crude oil prices. With OECD commercial oil inventories increasing by 6.5 mb, the supply-demand balance may tighten, impacting production planning. Producers should consider the implications of the $60.26/b WTI price on their operational costs and evaluate potential adjustments to output levels to align with market trends.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile, with WTI prices averaging $60.26/b. The geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could further complicate supply reliability. As refining margins decline, it is crucial for consumers to consider procurement strategies that mitigate risks associated with potential price increases and supply disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market shows a complex interplay of bearish news sentiment and increased speculative positions, indicating potential volatility ahead. Key driving factors include the steady growth in global oil demand, projected at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, against rising non-DoC liquids production. Analysts should closely monitor the supply-demand balance and geopolitical developments that could shift market dynamics significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.