Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.

The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's economic growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth forecasts are also unchanged at 0.9%.

China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027, while India is projected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's economic growth forecasts are steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, and Russia's growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027. Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This trend is expected to continue in 2027 with similar growth. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased availability of heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore experienced a similar trend, driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching its highest level in at least a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates hit a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates improved, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17% m-o-m.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d to 4.2 mb/d. Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous months. In Japan, crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher y-o-y. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, reflecting a stable inventory situation compared to historical averages.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a significant requirement for DoC crude to meet the projected demand.

The analysis indicates a growing gap between world demand and non-DoC supply, necessitating strategic production decisions to ensure market stability.