Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.

The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027. In the Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts are steady at 0.9% for both years. China's growth is forecasted at 4.5% for both years, while India is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's economic growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's growth is projected at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.

Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories, particularly in major economies.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.

Key demand drivers include economic recovery in emerging markets and ongoing industrial activity, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and shifts in energy policies.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.

In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in production levels.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop. Singapore also saw a decline in margins due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also experienced a strong performance, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates showed robust performance, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which was up by 17%, m-o-m.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.

Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous months, while product imports in India declined by 5%, m-o-m.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average, but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. In 2027, the demand for DoC crude is projected to be 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase.

The supply-demand gap analysis indicates that for 2026, the world demand is projected at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the ongoing need for strategic production decisions among OPEC members to maintain market stability.