Crude has shifted from a surplus-driven market to a logistics-driven one, ripping from $67 to $119 as ~20% of global flows through the Strait of Hormuz were threatened, despite underlying fundamentals still pointing to a ~3.7 mbpd surplus and U.S. production near 13.7 mbpd. Prices are now stabilizing in the $90–$100 range as some cargoes move again and workarounds like Saudi Red Sea exports (~3.8 mbpd) help offset disruption, but the system remains fragile. The Brent-WTI spread near $13–$15 is the market’s clearest signal that this is a global transport issue, not a domestic supply shortage. Strategic reserve releases (~400 million barrels) provide temporary relief but only equate to ~2–3 mbpd, far short of a sustained Hormuz disruption. The key risk is a shift from delayed shipments to actual upstream supply loss, with early signs of ~6% production cuts and force majeure events emerging in the region. Watch real tanker flows through Hormuz, the Brent-WTI spread, Saudi rerouting volumes, signs of upstream shut-ins, and any policy shift on Iranian barrels, because the market will quickly swing between scarcity pricing and surplus reality depending on which side gains traction. WTI traded all the way down to 84.37 on news that Trump announced "successful" talks with Iran on de-escalation. After absorbing that, WTI rebounded to low 90s as traders shift to deciphering what damage has been done and what that means as demand destruction and long term impacts are still unknown. Brent followed suit trading down to 96.25 before rebounding to 105-106 as traders are trying to understand the long term implications of where we may go.
* Monday was quite the roller coaster with Trump de-escalating and claiming victory which has sent crude down to the mid-80s. The de-escalation was from a reprieve of the 48 hour deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and second statement was declaring victory on regime change in Iran.
* Tuesday - well what a roller coaster after claims from Trump that talks were going well and Iran denied talks taking place. Whispers from Qatar and Pakistan is that there is hope for peace - while military experts say that the pieces are being moved in for escalation. One thing is clear - we are going to see 120 or 76 - question is which one first or both?
* Combined with weak stocks report adding over 6 mm barrels at Cushing (showing economic slowdown) and discussion of a cease fire. WTI is centering around 90.82 and I anticipate that assuming no cease fire - WTI comes back up to 97-100. Note that Brent has hovered around 102 (note this is a $12 spread and may stay wide for the near term).
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-03-25 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has transitioned from a surplus-driven market to a more logistics-centric one, soaring from $67 to $119 amid threats to the Strait of Hormuz, even with a ~3.7 mbpd surplus and U.S. production at 13.7 mbpd. Prices have stabilized around $90–$100 as cargoes resume, but the market remains delicate. The Brent-WTI spread signals a global transport issue, while strategic reserve releases offer only temporary relief. Keep an eye on tanker flows and any shifts in Iranian policy, as the market could swing between scarcity and surplus quickly.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$104.49
$4.55
WTI:
$92.35
$4.22
Spread:
$12.14
(Brent premium of $12.14)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
96,371
Weekly Change:
4,249
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$91.6
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $94.59
MA(20): $86.85
Current Price is 91.6, 9 day MA 94.59, 20 day MA 86.85
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 6.738
Signal: 7.3532
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 19,693
Avg (20d): 559,423
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 34.78
%D: 35.32
Stochastic %K: 34.78, %D: 35.32. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 58.06
+DI: 28.62
-DI: 10.19
ADX: 58.06 (+DI: 28.62, -DI: 10.19). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -65.22
Williams %R: -65.22 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 108.04
Middle: 86.85
Lower: 65.67
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 108.04, Middle: 86.85, Lower: 65.67
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13657.0 | 13668.0 | 13573.0 | 12958.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6464.0 | 7194.0 | 5385.0 | 6074.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3322.0 | 4898.0 | 4644.0 | 4458.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16598.0 | 16232.0 | 15663.0 | 15831.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3142.0 | 2296.0 | 741.0 | 1616.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 456185.0 | 449259.0 | 436968.0 | 451841.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1691147.0 | 1682813.0 | 1596776.0 | 1596484.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 241447.0 | 244040.0 | 240574.0 | 232631.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 119936.0 | 116904.0 | 114783.0 | 116127.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (MAY 26) settled at $104.49, change $+4.55. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $92.35, change $+4.22. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $12.14 (Brent premium of $12.14). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$104.49
4.55
(MAY 26)
WTI Crude
$92.35
4.22
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$12.14
Brent premium of $12.14
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Key growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to shape the economic landscape.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for 2027 remains unchanged with similar growth drivers. Key insights include:
- DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.
- Recent DoC crude production trends show a decrease of 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses stemmed from increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates rose significantly, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased amid weather disruptions, up by 12%, m-o-m.
- Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
- Clean tanker market rates showed strong performance, led by East of Suez, with rates up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trends include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
This analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, necessitating strategic production decisions to align with market requirements.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-17
Managed Money
96,371
Change: +4,249
4.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
249,396
Change: +36,838
12.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-512,025
Change: -23,020
-24.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,081,576
Change: 30,255
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-17
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,081,576 contracts (+30,255)
Managed Money Net Position: 96,371 contracts (4.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +4,249 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 249,396 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -512,025 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
113
Last Updated:
2026-03-25 23:53:02
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Geopolitical (10 articles)
- Oil Futures Regain Ground As Strikes Continue in Middle East — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Mideast Conflict to Hobble But Not Derail Canadian Economy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Likely to Stay High After War in the Middle East — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Jump on Fears of a Wider Conflict in the Middle East Barchart
- Oil Rebounds After 10% Drop as Market Grapples With Conflicting Signals — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Rise as Uncertainties Around Middle East War Continue — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil pares gains after reports of US plan aimed at ending the Middle East war Reuters
- Oil Futures Retreat On Middle East Conflict Seen Easing — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil prices plunge 11% on US-Iran talks to resolve hostilities in the Middle East Reuters
- Bonds Decoupling From Oil Amid Longer Conflict Fears — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.6
Daily:
0.17 (0.17%)
Weekly:
0.36 (0.37%)
US_10Y
4.33
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.46%)
Weekly:
0.05 (1.1%)
SP500
6591.9
Daily:
35.53 (0.54%)
Weekly:
-14.59 (-0.22%)
VIX
25.33
Daily:
-1.62 (-6.01%)
Weekly:
1.27 (5.28%)
GOLD
4512.9
Daily:
113.6 (2.58%)
Weekly:
-87.8 (-1.91%)
COPPER
5.49
Daily:
0.07 (1.26%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.07%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$91.6
Closest Support:
$87.62
4.34% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$95.14
3.86% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$55.76
0.236
$70.8
0.382
$80.1
0.5
$87.62
Support
0.618
$95.14
Resistance
0.786
$105.84
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.81
1.618
$158.86
2.0
$183.2
2.618
$222.58
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$90.32
Forecast Generated:
2026-03-25 23:53:05
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.43%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | $89.93 | $81.15 | $98.7 |
| 2026-03-27 | $89.55 | $80.78 | $98.32 |
| 2026-03-28 | $89.23 | $80.46 | $98.01 |
| 2026-03-29 | $89.35 | $80.58 | $98.13 |
| 2026-03-30 | $89.21 | $80.44 | $97.99 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.43% for the next trading day (2026-03-26), reaching $89.93.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-03-26 and 2026-03-30.
- The average confidence interval width is ~19.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600. The $104.49 price for Brent and $92.35 for WTI indicates a significant imbalance in supply and demand dynamics.
The $12.14 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and transportation costs, which may present risk factors for traders. Watch for potential support levels around $60 for WTI and $62 for Brent, while resistance may be observed near $65 for Brent.
With managed money positioning becoming more bullish, traders should consider the implications of increased net long positions and the potential for price volatility in the short term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should closely monitor the current balance of supply and demand, particularly with global oil demand growth forecasted to remain steady at 1.4 mb/d for 2026. The decrease in DoC crude production may provide an opportunity to optimize production planning.
Given the $62.31 OPEC Reference Basket price, hedging strategies should be revisited to mitigate potential price fluctuations. The increase in crude inventories, particularly product stocks, suggests a need for strategic adjustments in inventory management.
Market sentiment remains cautious, and producers should consider the impact of external factors, including geopolitical developments and refining margins, on their operations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with Brent and WTI prices at $104.49 and $92.35, respectively. The risk of supply reliability is heightened due to geopolitical issues and seasonal demand pressures.
Refineries may face challenges with declining refining margins, which could impact product availability and pricing. It is advisable to consider procurement strategies that account for current market volatility and maintain flexibility in supply contracts.
Monitoring crude and product inventory levels will be crucial to managing costs effectively in the coming months.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with significant implications from both fundamentals and technical positioning. The balance of supply and demand remains stable, with global oil demand projected to grow steadily.
Key driving factors include bullish positioning by managed money, which indicates potential upward price movement. However, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and declining refining margins present risks that could affect market dynamics.
Analysts should remain vigilant about changes in CFTC positioning, crude inventory levels, and refining margins, as these will be crucial in forecasting market trends and potential outlook shifts.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.