Crude oil right now is trading like a market that suddenly remembered geography matters more than spreadsheets, ripping toward ~$100 WTI as the Strait of Hormuz effectively chokes off ~13% of global supply and sends tanker rates into orbit. The market is layering on a geopolitical risk premium as if barrels are disappearing in real time, even though U.S. inventories are still slightly comfortable with crude +0.6% and gasoline +3.3% above the 5-year average. But the slow burn underneath is real: Ukrainian strikes have hit 28+ Russian refineries and tankers, sanctions are tightening, and U.S. production has quietly slipped to ~13.66 mbpd while rigs sit near multi-year lows at 409. This isn’t just a headline spike… it’s a market watching supply chains fray at multiple pressure points simultaneously.
The twist, of course, is that the “missing barrels” are partly logistical, not geological — trapped, delayed, rerouted, and insured into oblivion rather than truly gone. That means if the geopolitical tension cools even slightly, flows can normalize faster than sentiment, pulling prices back toward reality. But if disruption lingers, the market may be underestimating how quickly inventory cushions evaporate, especially with refining capacity and transport systems under stress. So we’re left with a high-stakes setup: either this is a temporary fear premium that fades… or the early innings of a structurally tighter oil market that drags prices higher and keeps volatility dialed to chaos mode.
* Monday brought some interesting things to the mix - the main one: WTI surged up by 2-4% and Brent fell by 4-6% tightening the spread. Some narrative on attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure was on the table by a post from Trump. The market is discounting several aspects of these posts. The full pricing impact of “where we should be” is closer to $150+ for WTI and $170+ for Brent - but that is the fundamentals - traders are pricing that this event will not last for too much longer (but same could have been said a few weeks ago).
* Brent-WTI spread has dropped back to historical $3 - which is too tight imho. The market cooled off quite a bit based on a headline that Iran is open to negotiate but will need guarantees. Today we are WAY undervalued on the disruption that has taken place already - we are looking at a massive impact on Urea (Qatar LNG), Diesel & Bunker Fuel (over 1 mmbpd of refining struck in the US-Iran war. And the Strait of Hormuz bottling up over 4 mmbpd of products). WTI sitting just above $101 while Brent is sitting just over $104 (too tight in my opinion)
* The crude markets were pricing in a deescalation in Iran with Trumps announcement - and he announced 2-3 more weeks of military action which led WTI to jump to 111 and Brent to 107. The Brent spread is now mispriced and inverted - which is a great non directional way to play. Everything hinges on deescalation - when and how
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-03 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is currently navigating a geopolitical minefield, with prices nearing $100 WTI as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten ~13% of global supply. Despite U.S. inventories being above the 5-year average, market sentiment is driven by fears of logistical bottlenecks rather than true supply shortages. With U.S. production slipping and rigs at multi-year lows, traders are caught between a potential fear premium and a tighter market. Watch for shifts in geopolitical tensions, which could recalibrate inventory levels and price dynamics swiftly.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$109.03
$7.87
WTI:
$111.54
$11.42
Spread:
$-2.51
(WTI premium of $2.51)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
73,347
Weekly Change:
20,989
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$111.54
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $97.87
MA(20): $95.61
Current Price is 111.54, 9 day MA 97.87, 20 day MA 95.61
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 7.572
Signal: 7.0988
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 71.15
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 71.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 434,561
Avg (20d): 494,334
Ratio: 0.88
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 91.79
%D: 79.15
Stochastic %K: 91.79, %D: 79.15. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 58.16
+DI: 35.97
-DI: 8.53
ADX: 58.16 (+DI: 35.97, -DI: 8.53). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -8.21
Williams %R: -8.21 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 107.74
Middle: 95.61
Lower: 83.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 107.74, Middle: 95.61, Lower: 83.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13657.0 | 13657.0 | 13574.0 | 12960.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6454.0 | 6464.0 | 6195.0 | 6742.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3521.0 | 3322.0 | 4609.0 | 4380.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16379.0 | 16598.0 | 15750.0 | 15690.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2933.0 | 3142.0 | 1586.0 | 2362.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 461636.0 | 456185.0 | 433627.0 | 453720.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688663.0 | 1691147.0 | 1600254.0 | 1594015.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 240861.0 | 241447.0 | 239128.0 | 229322.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 117825.0 | 119936.0 | 114362.0 | 114582.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $109.03, change $+7.87. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $111.54, change $+11.42. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-2.51 (WTI premium of $2.51). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$109.03
7.87
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$111.54
11.42
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-2.51
WTI premium of $2.51
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key regional forecasts include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both years
- China: 4.5% for both years
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Increase of 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Growth of about 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is for a growth of 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, reaching about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Notable trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: Declines led by gasoline, followed by fuel oil
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, driven by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key movements include:
- VLCC rates surged, with Middle East-to-East route rates up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, on the USGC-to-Europe route
- Aframax rates reached a 10-year high, with a 10% m-o-m increase
- Clean tanker rates also showed strong performance, particularly East of Suez, with rates up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with the five-year average. Key trends include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, and for 2027 at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, with a requirement for DoC crude to meet the increasing demand. This gap necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-31
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: 28,905
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-31
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,030,970 contracts (+28,905)
Managed Money Net Position: 73,347 contracts (3.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -20,989 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 287,728 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -532,819 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
75
Last Updated:
2026-04-03 23:54:01
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Higher Sugar Production in Brazil Weighs on Sugar Prices Barchart
- Longer-Term Supply Shock a Risk for Economies — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Canadian Crude Oil Exports Rise to Record High — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.19
Daily:
0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-0.32%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
6582.69
Daily:
7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly:
213.84 (3.36%)
VIX
23.87
Daily:
-0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly:
-7.18 (-23.12%)
GOLD
4651.5
Daily:
-131.7 (-2.75%)
Weekly:
159.5 (3.55%)
COPPER
5.56
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.76%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$111.54
Closest Support:
$105.84
5.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$119.48
7.12% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$55.76
0.236
$70.8
0.382
$80.1
0.5
$87.62
0.618
$95.14
0.786
$105.84
Support
1.0
$119.48
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.81
1.618
$158.86
2.0
$183.2
2.618
$222.58
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$111.54
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-03 23:54:04
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.63%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | $112.24 | $102.47 | $122.02 |
| 2026-04-04 | $111.49 | $101.71 | $121.26 |
| 2026-04-05 | $111.45 | $101.67 | $121.22 |
| 2026-04-06 | $112.46 | $102.68 | $122.23 |
| 2026-04-07 | $113.29 | $103.51 | $123.06 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.63% for the next trading day (2026-04-03), reaching $112.24.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-03 and 2026-04-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment, driven by a $3.10 increase in ICE Brent and a $2.39 rise in NYMEX WTI month-on-month. The $4.47 Brent-WTI spread indicates a strong divergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets, potentially creating short-term trading opportunities.
With the forward curves moving into backwardation, traders should monitor support levels around $60.00 for WTI and $62.00 for Brent. Volatility may arise from geopolitical uncertainties and speculator positioning, as evidenced by a decline in managed money net positions, which could indicate a potential market reversal.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of a balanced supply-demand scenario, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026. The 6.5 mb increase in OECD commercial oil inventories indicates a need for strategic production planning to avoid oversupply.
Hedging strategies may need to be adjusted in light of fluctuating prices, especially with the current bearish sentiment in the demand sector. Additionally, the current market sentiment suggests a cautious approach to expansion plans, particularly in regions with geopolitical risks.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, as WTI is currently trading at an average of $60.26 and Brent at $64.73. The risks associated with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels could affect supply reliability.
Given the bearish sentiment in the demand sector, it may be prudent to consider procurement strategies that mitigate exposure to price volatility, including long-term contracts or hedging options.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment among traders, with speculative positions increasing despite a slight decline in managed money net positions. Key driving factors include balanced supply and demand forecasts, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
However, the bearish sentiment in the demand sector, especially from geopolitical headlines, indicates potential volatility ahead. Analysts should closely monitor inventory levels and geopolitical developments, as these could significantly impact price trajectories and market outlook shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.