Crude oil right now is trading like the world just realized pipelines and spreadsheets are not the same thing, ripping to ~$111–$112 WTI (up ~11% in a single session) as the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries ~20% of global oil flows, effectively turns into a geopolitical bottleneck. The disruption isn’t theoretical either… Gulf producers are already cutting output ~6% as storage fills locally, while Russia has ~1 million bpd of export capacity offline and over 40 energy sites across nine countries have been damaged, stretching supply chains thinner than they’d like to admit .
But here’s where the plot twists: the market isn’t actually “out” of oil… it’s just struggling to move it. Roughly 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are sitting in floating storage (up >40% y/y), meaning barrels exist, they’re just stuck in logistical purgatory while insurance, routing, and geopolitics play a high-stakes game of chicken . Meanwhile, U.S. production is still humming near 13.6–13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories sit ~4% above the 5-year average, and the IEA still sees a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, which quietly whispers that this rally is more risk premium than structural shortage.
So where are we headed? Near-term, crude remains bid as long as Hormuz flows stay constrained and escalation risk lingers, especially with weekend headline risk acting like jet fuel for volatility. But structurally, this market is walking a tightrope… because if flows normalize or demand starts cracking under $4+ gasoline and macro pressure, prices could retrace just as violently as they rallied. In classic Rogue fashion, oil isn’t short… it’s just stuck, rerouted, and politically tangled… and the next move hinges on whether logistics break first or demand does.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-04 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are surging, hitting ~$111–$112 WTI, as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz constrain supply, with Gulf producers cutting output by ~6%. The market isn't out of oil, though—290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are trapped in floating storage. With U.S. production steady and gasoline inventories above the 5-year average, the current rally seems more about risk premiums than shortages. Watch for demand reactions and logistics challenges as the market navigates these turbulent waters.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$109.03
$7.87
WTI:
$111.54
$11.42
Spread:
$-2.51
(WTI premium of $2.51)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
73,347
Weekly Change:
20,989
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$111.54
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $97.87
MA(20): $95.61
Current Price is 111.54, 9 day MA 97.87, 20 day MA 95.61
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 7.572
Signal: 7.0988
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 71.15
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 71.15 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 434,561
Avg (20d): 494,334
Ratio: 0.88
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 91.79
%D: 79.15
Stochastic %K: 91.79, %D: 79.15. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 58.16
+DI: 35.97
-DI: 8.53
ADX: 58.16 (+DI: 35.97, -DI: 8.53). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -8.21
Williams %R: -8.21 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 107.74
Middle: 95.61
Lower: 83.48
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 107.74, Middle: 95.61, Lower: 83.48
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13657.0 | 13657.0 | 13574.0 | 12960.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6454.0 | 6464.0 | 6195.0 | 6742.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3521.0 | 3322.0 | 4609.0 | 4380.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16379.0 | 16598.0 | 15750.0 | 15690.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2933.0 | 3142.0 | 1586.0 | 2362.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 461636.0 | 456185.0 | 433627.0 | 453720.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688663.0 | 1691147.0 | 1600254.0 | 1594015.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 240861.0 | 241447.0 | 239128.0 | 229322.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 117825.0 | 119936.0 | 114362.0 | 114582.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $109.03, change $+7.87. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $111.54, change $+11.42. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-2.51 (WTI premium of $2.51). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$109.03
7.87
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$111.54
11.42
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-2.51
WTI premium of $2.51
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The economic growth outlooks for key regions are as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD forecasted to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina. The outlook for 2027 is similar, with non-DoC liquids production expected to grow by about 0.6 mb/d.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 to average about 8.9 mb/d. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses stemmed from increased availability of heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Notable trends include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64% y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, more than double year-ago levels
- Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker rates showed robust performance, particularly East of Suez, with rates up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. Key regional trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined m-o-m, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb, 14.4 mb higher y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The supply-demand gap analysis reveals the following:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, necessitating strategic production decisions to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-31
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: 28,905
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-31
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,030,970 contracts (+28,905)
Managed Money Net Position: 73,347 contracts (3.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -20,989 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 287,728 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -532,819 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
44
Last Updated:
2026-04-04 23:52:46
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.19
Daily:
0.16 (0.16%)
Weekly:
-0.32 (-0.32%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
6582.69
Daily:
7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly:
213.84 (3.36%)
VIX
23.87
Daily:
-0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly:
-7.18 (-23.12%)
GOLD
4651.5
Daily:
-131.7 (-2.75%)
Weekly:
159.5 (3.55%)
COPPER
5.56
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.08%)
Weekly:
0.1 (1.76%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$111.54
Closest Support:
$105.84
5.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$119.48
7.12% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$55.76
0.236
$70.8
0.382
$80.1
0.5
$87.62
0.618
$95.14
0.786
$105.84
Support
1.0
$119.48
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.81
1.618
$158.86
2.0
$183.2
2.618
$222.58
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$111.54
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-04 23:52:48
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.65%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | $112.26 | $102.49 | $122.04 |
| 2026-04-04 | $111.49 | $101.72 | $121.27 |
| 2026-04-05 | $111.45 | $101.67 | $121.22 |
| 2026-04-06 | $112.46 | $102.69 | $122.23 |
| 2026-04-07 | $113.3 | $103.53 | $123.08 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.65% for the next trading day (2026-04-03), reaching $112.26.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-03 and 2026-04-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions indicate a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.700. The $64.73 average for ICE Brent and $60.26 for NYMEX WTI suggest potential volatility in the short term, particularly given the geopolitical uncertainties impacting supply dynamics.
The $4.47 Brent-WTI spread indicates a stronger demand for Brent, reflecting global supply concerns. Traders should monitor for potential support around the Fibonacci levels, particularly as the market shows signs of backwardation.
With managed money positions experiencing a decline of 20,989 contracts, this could signal a shift in market momentum, offering short-term trading opportunities as positions adjust.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The recent decrease in 439 tb/d in crude oil production by DoC countries highlights potential supply constraints. Producers should consider adjusting production planning in response to the forecasted demand increase to 43.6 mb/d in 2027, which remains unchanged.
Given the inventory levels in OECD countries, which are 44.1 mb above the five-year average, hedging strategies may need to be reevaluated to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and market sentiment that is currently bearish.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with Brent prices at $64.73 and WTI at $60.26. The geopolitical factors could impact supply reliability, necessitating strategic procurement planning.
The current inventory levels suggest that while crude stocks are higher than average, product stocks are also increasing, which may provide some buffer against price spikes. It may be beneficial to explore hedging options to mitigate risks associated with price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by bearish sentiment, with a significant decline in managed money positions indicating potential shifts in market dynamics. The supply-demand balance remains stable, with demand forecasts holding steady at 43.0 mb/d for DoC crude in 2026.
Key driving factors include geopolitical tensions and inventory levels which are above the five-year average. Analysts should closely monitor these indicators as they may lead to shifts in market outlook, especially if geopolitical tensions ease, as indicated by recent news sentiment.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.