Crude oil right now is trading like the world just realized pipelines and spreadsheets are not the same thing, ripping to ~$111–$112 WTI (up ~11% in a single session) as the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries ~20% of global oil flows, effectively turns into a geopolitical bottleneck. The disruption isn’t theoretical either… Gulf producers are already cutting output ~6% as storage fills locally, while Russia has ~1 million bpd of export capacity offline and over 40 energy sites across nine countries have been damaged, stretching supply chains thinner than they’d like to admit .
But here’s where the plot twists: the market isn’t actually “out” of oil… it’s just struggling to move it. Roughly 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are sitting in floating storage (up >40% y/y), meaning barrels exist, they’re just stuck in logistical purgatory while insurance, routing, and geopolitics play a high-stakes game of chicken . Meanwhile, U.S. production is still humming near 13.6–13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories sit ~4% above the 5-year average, and the IEA still sees a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, which quietly whispers that this rally is more risk premium than structural shortage.
So where are we headed? Near-term, crude remains bid as long as Hormuz flows stay constrained and escalation risk lingers, especially with weekend headline risk acting like jet fuel for volatility. But structurally, this market is walking a tightrope… because if flows normalize or demand starts cracking under $4+ gasoline and macro pressure, prices could retrace just as violently as they rallied. In classic Rogue fashion, oil isn’t short… it’s just stuck, rerouted, and politically tangled… and the next move hinges on whether logistics break first or demand does.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-05 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices surged to ~$111–$112 WTI, driven by geopolitical tensions as the Strait of Hormuz faces disruptions, leading Gulf producers to cut output by ~6%. Yet, the market isn't out of oil; about 290 million barrels remain in floating storage, highlighting logistical challenges rather than a shortage. U.S. production stays robust at 13.6–13.7 mbpd with gasoline inventories above the 5-year average. As long as geopolitical risks persist, prices may stay high, but normalization of flows or weakening demand could trigger a sharp retracement. Watch for weekend headlines!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$109.03
$7.87
WTI:
$111.54
$11.42
Spread:
$-2.51
(WTI premium of $2.51)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
73,347
Weekly Change:
20,989
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$111.96
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.52
MA(20): $96.66
Current Price is 111.96, 9 day MA 100.52, 20 day MA 96.66
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 8.0872
Signal: 7.2965
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: 71.39
Category: OVERBOUGHT
RSI is 71.39 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 45,568
Avg (20d): 446,800
Ratio: 0.1
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 88.69
%D: 83.5
Stochastic %K: 88.69, %D: 83.5. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 58.49
+DI: 35.41
-DI: 8.08
ADX: 58.49 (+DI: 35.41, -DI: 8.08). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -11.31
Williams %R: -11.31 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT UPPER
Upper: 110.51
Middle: 96.66
Lower: 82.81
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 110.51, Middle: 96.66, Lower: 82.81
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13657.0 | 13657.0 | 13574.0 | 12960.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6454.0 | 6464.0 | 6195.0 | 6742.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3521.0 | 3322.0 | 4609.0 | 4380.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16379.0 | 16598.0 | 15750.0 | 15690.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2933.0 | 3142.0 | 1586.0 | 2362.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 461636.0 | 456185.0 | 433627.0 | 453720.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688663.0 | 1691147.0 | 1600254.0 | 1594015.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 240861.0 | 241447.0 | 239128.0 | 229322.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 117825.0 | 119936.0 | 114362.0 | 114582.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $109.03, change $+7.87. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $111.54, change $+11.42. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-2.51 (WTI premium of $2.51). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$109.03
7.87
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$111.54
11.42
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-2.51
WTI premium of $2.51
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
• In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b.
• The NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moved into stronger backwardation, indicating a bullish market sentiment driven by supply outages and robust physical market fundamentals.
• Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds increasing their net long positions significantly.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b.
• The NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moved into stronger backwardation, indicating a bullish market sentiment driven by supply outages and robust physical market fundamentals.
• Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds increasing their net long positions significantly.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
• Global GDP growth is forecasted at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
• The US growth forecast is slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth is steady at 1.2% for both years.
• Japan's growth remains at 0.9% for both years.
• China's growth forecast is stable at 4.5% for both years.
• India is projected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
• Brazil's growth remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
• Trade normalization and monetary policy are expected to influence these growth rates positively.
• The US growth forecast is slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth is steady at 1.2% for both years.
• Japan's growth remains at 0.9% for both years.
• China's growth forecast is stable at 4.5% for both years.
• India is projected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
• Brazil's growth remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
• Trade normalization and monetary policy are expected to influence these growth rates positively.
World Oil Demand Trends
• Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, unchanged from the previous assessment.
• OECD demand is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to rise by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and seasonal factors, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
• OECD demand is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to rise by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic recovery and seasonal factors, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
World Oil Supply Analysis
• Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d in 2026, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• The same growth rate is expected in 2027, supported by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years.
• In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
• The same growth rate is expected in 2027, supported by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina.
• Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years.
• In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
• January saw declining refining margins across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures.
• In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased heavy crude supply impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
• Rotterdam experienced declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline.
• Singapore's margins fell due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
• In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased heavy crude supply impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
• Rotterdam experienced declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline.
• Singapore's margins fell due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
• Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, bolstered by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
• VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by 64% year-on-year.
• Suezmax rates increased amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high.
• Clean tanker market rates were robust, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17%, m-o-m.
• VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by 64% year-on-year.
• Suezmax rates increased amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high.
• Clean tanker market rates were robust, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
• US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average.
• US crude exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa.
• In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
• US crude exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa.
• In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
• OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher year-on-year.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• Days of forward cover for OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, indicating a stable supply situation.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• Days of forward cover for OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, indicating a stable supply situation.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
• The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, increasing to 43.6 mb/d in 2027.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is forecast at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a DoC requirement gap of 43.0 mb/d, indicating a need for increased production from DoC countries to meet demand.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is forecast at 63.5 mb/d.
• This results in a DoC requirement gap of 43.0 mb/d, indicating a need for increased production from DoC countries to meet demand.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 44.4 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-31
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: 28,905
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-31
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,030,970 contracts (+28,905)
Managed Money Net Position: 73,347 contracts (3.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -20,989 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 287,728 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -532,819 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
26
Last Updated:
2026-04-05 23:53:13
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
100.03
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.48 (-0.48%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
6582.69
Daily:
7.37 (0.11%)
Weekly:
213.84 (3.36%)
VIX
23.87
Daily:
-0.67 (-2.73%)
Weekly:
-7.18 (-23.12%)
GOLD
4655.5
Daily:
4.0 (0.09%)
Weekly:
129.5 (2.86%)
COPPER
5.61
Daily:
0.04 (0.77%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.37%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$111.96
Closest Support:
$105.89
5.42% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$119.48
6.72% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$55.97
0.236
$70.96
0.382
$80.23
0.5
$87.73
0.618
$95.22
0.786
$105.89
Support
1.0
$119.48
Resistance
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.75
1.618
$158.73
2.0
$182.99
2.618
$222.24
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$111.54
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-05 23:53:15
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.65%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | $112.27 | $102.5 | $122.04 |
| 2026-04-04 | $111.49 | $101.72 | $121.27 |
| 2026-04-05 | $111.45 | $101.68 | $121.23 |
| 2026-04-06 | $112.47 | $102.7 | $122.24 |
| 2026-04-07 | $113.31 | $103.54 | $123.09 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.65% for the next trading day (2026-04-03), reaching $112.27.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-03 and 2026-04-07.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest bullish sentiment but with signs of weakening momentum. The Brent-WTI spread of -$2.51 indicates a risk of volatility due to diverging supply/demand dynamics. Key support levels can be monitored around 60.26 (WTI) and 62.31 (ORB), while resistance may form near 64.73 (Brent).
Traders should watch for potential short-term opportunities, especially in response to geopolitical developments and inventory fluctuations. The increased net long positions by speculators can drive prices higher, but caution is advised as positioning could indicate a market reversal.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With demand for DoC crude projected to increase, producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with the anticipated growth. Current inventory levels show a rise in OECD commercial stocks, suggesting a need for strategic hedging to mitigate price fluctuations.
The bullish sentiment in the market, driven by robust physical fundamentals, supports the case for proactive hedging strategies to lock in favorable prices. However, the decline in crude oil production from DoC countries indicates potential supply tightness that could benefit producers if managed appropriately.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The current Brent and WTI prices suggest that procurement strategies may need to adapt to changing market conditions.
Supply reliability risks, particularly stemming from geopolitical uncertainties and inventory levels, could impact procurement strategies. Given the decline in refining margins due to seasonal pressures, consumers should consider hedging options to manage costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bullish fundamentals driven by steady demand growth and tightening supply. The global oil demand forecast remains stable, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, while supply from non-DoC countries shows resilience.
Key driving factors include a strong tanker market influenced by geopolitical tensions and weather disruptions, alongside a neutral overall market sentiment reflected in recent CFTC positioning data. Analysts should monitor these dynamics closely, as shifts in sentiment and positioning could signal potential outlook changes.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.