Crude oil right now is trading like the world just realized pipelines and spreadsheets are not the same thing, ripping to ~$111–$112 WTI (up ~11% in a single session) as the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries ~20% of global oil flows, effectively turns into a geopolitical bottleneck. The disruption isn’t theoretical either… Gulf producers are already cutting output ~6% as storage fills locally, while Russia has ~1 million bpd of export capacity offline and over 40 energy sites across nine countries have been damaged, stretching supply chains thinner than they’d like to admit .
But here’s where the plot twists: the market isn’t actually “out” of oil… it’s just struggling to move it. Roughly 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are sitting in floating storage (up >40% y/y), meaning barrels exist, they’re just stuck in logistical purgatory while insurance, routing, and geopolitics play a high-stakes game of chicken . Meanwhile, U.S. production is still humming near 13.6–13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories sit ~4% above the 5-year average, and the IEA still sees a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, which quietly whispers that this rally is more risk premium than structural shortage.
So where are we headed? Near-term, crude remains bid as long as Hormuz flows stay constrained and escalation risk lingers, especially with weekend headline risk acting like jet fuel for volatility. But structurally, this market is walking a tightrope… because if flows normalize or demand starts cracking under $4+ gasoline and macro pressure, prices could retrace just as violently as they rallied. In classic Rogue fashion, oil isn’t short… it’s just stuck, rerouted, and politically tangled… and the next move hinges on whether logistics break first or demand does.
* Escalatory language from the US indicates possible further escalation (which can also be witnessed in the military buildup). WTI is trading over Brent which is really odd and does not happen often - WTI is over $113 and Brent is over $110
* Tuesday is the deadline and after WTI topped $117.63 - we have since retreated back to $114 - which is bringing to light that the market is pricing in that Trump’s deadline is fast approaching (and the market essentially believes that nothing will happen). Meanwhile - WTI is trading significantly above Brent (over $4 and almost $5) which hasn’t happened with any meaningfulness since 2010. This signals both that demand for WTI barrels is increasing and currency plays are in full swing.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-07 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has recently surged to ~$111–$112 WTI, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for global oil flows. Despite this rally, the market isn't truly short on oil; approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are stuck in logistical limbo. While U.S. production remains strong, the market is balancing on a tightrope, with potential for a rapid price correction if demand falters or logistics improve. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and logistical constraints for future price direction.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$109.77
$0.74
WTI:
$112.41
$0.87
Spread:
$-2.64
(WTI premium of $2.64)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
73,347
Weekly Change:
20,989
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$95.69
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.94
MA(20): $96.73
Current Price is 95.69, 9 day MA 100.94, 20 day MA 96.73
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 7.1285
Signal: 7.2686
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.89
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.89 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 147,413
Avg (20d): 388,392
Ratio: 0.38
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 36.39
%D: 72.77
Stochastic %K: 36.39, %D: 72.77. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 55.56
+DI: 29.34
-DI: 20.65
ADX: 55.56 (+DI: 29.34, -DI: 20.65). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -63.61
Williams %R: -63.61 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 110.66
Middle: 96.73
Lower: 82.8
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 110.66, Middle: 96.73, Lower: 82.8
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13657.0 | 13657.0 | 13574.0 | 12960.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6454.0 | 6464.0 | 6195.0 | 6742.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3521.0 | 3322.0 | 4609.0 | 4380.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16379.0 | 16598.0 | 15750.0 | 15690.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2933.0 | 3142.0 | 1586.0 | 2362.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 461636.0 | 456185.0 | 433627.0 | 453720.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688663.0 | 1691147.0 | 1600254.0 | 1594015.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 240861.0 | 241447.0 | 239128.0 | 229322.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 117825.0 | 119936.0 | 114362.0 | 114582.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $109.77, change $+0.74. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $112.41, change $+0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-2.64 (WTI premium of $2.64). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$109.77
0.74
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$112.41
0.87
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-2.64
WTI premium of $2.64
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable, projected at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key economic outlooks include: • US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, steady at 2% for 2027 • Eurozone: Consistent at 1.2% for both years • Japan: Maintained at 0.9% for both years • China: Steady at 4.5% for both years • India: Forecasted at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027 • Brazil: Remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027 • Russia: Steady at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows: • OECD: +0.15 mb/d • Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD increasing by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted to grow by +0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Additionally: • DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d, reaching an average of 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. • In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to: • Stronger feedstock prices • Seasonal demand-side pressures
Notable declines were observed in: • US Gulf Coast: Losses primarily from the bottom section of the barrel • Rotterdam: All key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline • Singapore: Declines driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a robust start in January, influenced by: • Weather disruptions • Geopolitical uncertainties • Unplanned outages • Steady loading activity
Key movements include: • VLCC rates surged by +64%, y-o-y, on the Middle East-to-East route • Suezmax rates increased by +12%, m-o-m, on the USGC-to-Europe route • Aframax rates rose by +10%, m-o-m, reaching a 10-year high • Clean tanker rates also showed strong performance, particularly in the East of Suez region
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average. Notable trends include: • US crude exports rose by almost +0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, averaging 4.2 mb/d. • Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. • China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December. • India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by +6.5 mb, m-o-m, totaling 2,845 mb. Key points include: • Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb. • OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, +75.5 mb higher, y-o-y. • Days of forward cover rose by +0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, reflecting an increase of +0.6 mb/d from 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, also +0.6 mb/d higher than 2026.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to ensure market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-31
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: 28,905
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-31
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,030,970 contracts (+28,905)
Managed Money Net Position: 73,347 contracts (3.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -20,989 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 287,728 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -532,819 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
61
Last Updated:
2026-04-07 23:53:29
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil Rises Amid Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Increased Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (2 articles)
- Middle East War Could Reshape Global Energy Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Higher Oil Prices on a Middle East Escalation Could Spur Rate Hike Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.97
Daily:
-1.01 (-1.01%)
Weekly:
-0.99 (-0.99%)
US_10Y
4.34
Daily:
0.01 (0.18%)
Weekly:
0.03 (0.74%)
SP500
6616.85
Daily:
5.02 (0.08%)
Weekly:
88.33 (1.35%)
VIX
25.78
Daily:
1.61 (6.66%)
Weekly:
0.53 (2.1%)
GOLD
4831.5
Daily:
174.7 (3.75%)
Weekly:
183.9 (3.96%)
COPPER
5.7
Daily:
0.12 (2.18%)
Weekly:
0.12 (2.1%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$95.69
Closest Support:
$88.55
7.46% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$95.85
0.17% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$57.61
0.236
$72.21
0.382
$81.24
0.5
$88.55
Support
0.618
$95.85
Resistance
0.786
$106.24
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.31
1.618
$157.72
2.0
$181.35
2.618
$219.59
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$112.95
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-07 23:53:32
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.76%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | $113.8 | $104.08 | $123.53 |
| 2026-04-09 | $114.59 | $104.86 | $124.31 |
| 2026-04-10 | $114.62 | $104.9 | $124.35 |
| 2026-04-11 | $114.7 | $104.98 | $124.43 |
| 2026-04-12 | $114.83 | $105.11 | $124.55 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.76% for the next trading day (2026-04-08), reaching $113.80.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-08 and 2026-04-12.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market is supported by rising prices across major benchmarks. The OPEC Reference Basket increased to an average of $62.31/b, while the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts rose to $64.73/b and $60.26/b, respectively. This upward price movement suggests potential support levels around these averages, with resistance likely near recent highs.
The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.47/b, indicating a stronger Brent market relative to WTI, which may present short-term trading opportunities. However, the increased volatility observed in the market, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, necessitates caution. Traders should monitor the ML price predictions and technical indicators for potential trend reversals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions present both opportunities and challenges for producers. With crude oil prices trending upwards, there is a favorable environment for production planning and potential profit margins. However, the inventory levels indicate an increase in OECD commercial oil stocks, which may impact market dynamics. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price fluctuations.
The bearish sentiment in refining margins, which have declined due to seasonal demand pressures and increased feedstock prices, could affect profitability. Producers need to remain agile and responsive to changes in demand forecasts, particularly in the non-OECD regions, which are expected to drive growth.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude oil prices are on an upward trajectory, with WTI and Brent benchmarks averaging around $60.26/b and $64.73/b, respectively. The geopolitical risks and the reliability of supply chains are critical factors to consider, especially in light of the recent supply disruption concerns from Middle Eastern conflicts.
Additionally, with increasing inventories in OECD regions, there may be short-term relief in supply, but long-term procurement strategies should account for potential volatility in crude prices. Consumers are advised to evaluate their hedging strategies to manage costs effectively.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish outlook driven by strong price movements and increasing net long positions among speculators. The fundamentals show a stable demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d for 2026, with non-OECD regions leading the charge. This stability is crucial for analysts to monitor as it suggests sustained demand against a backdrop of fluctuating supply.
The geopolitical tensions and the recent increase in commercial inventories highlight the complexities of the market. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply disruptions and demand forecasts, particularly in the context of the ML price predictions that indicate potential price shifts. Overall, the market requires close monitoring to identify shifts in sentiment and positioning.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific