Crude oil right now is trading like the world just realized pipelines and spreadsheets are not the same thing, ripping to ~$111–$112 WTI (up ~11% in a single session) as the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries ~20% of global oil flows, effectively turns into a geopolitical bottleneck. The disruption isn’t theoretical either… Gulf producers are already cutting output ~6% as storage fills locally, while Russia has ~1 million bpd of export capacity offline and over 40 energy sites across nine countries have been damaged, stretching supply chains thinner than they’d like to admit .
But here’s where the plot twists: the market isn’t actually “out” of oil… it’s just struggling to move it. Roughly 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are sitting in floating storage (up >40% y/y), meaning barrels exist, they’re just stuck in logistical purgatory while insurance, routing, and geopolitics play a high-stakes game of chicken . Meanwhile, U.S. production is still humming near 13.6–13.7 mbpd, gasoline inventories sit ~4% above the 5-year average, and the IEA still sees a ~3.7 mbpd surplus into 2026, which quietly whispers that this rally is more risk premium than structural shortage.
So where are we headed? Near-term, crude remains bid as long as Hormuz flows stay constrained and escalation risk lingers, especially with weekend headline risk acting like jet fuel for volatility. But structurally, this market is walking a tightrope… because if flows normalize or demand starts cracking under $4+ gasoline and macro pressure, prices could retrace just as violently as they rallied. In classic Rogue fashion, oil isn’t short… it’s just stuck, rerouted, and politically tangled… and the next move hinges on whether logistics break first or demand does.
* Escalatory language from the US indicates possible further escalation (which can also be witnessed in the military buildup). WTI is trading over Brent which is really odd and does not happen often - WTI is over $113 and Brent is over $110
* Tuesday is the deadline and after WTI topped $117.63 - we have since retreated back to $114 - which is bringing to light that the market is pricing in that Trump’s deadline is fast approaching (and the market essentially believes that nothing will happen). Meanwhile - WTI is trading significantly above Brent (over $4 and almost $5) which hasn’t happened with any meaningfulness since 2010. This signals both that demand for WTI barrels is increasing and currency plays are in full swing.
* After the escalated threat of nuclear attacks from the US passed the deadline there was a claim of a two week cease fire agreed to from the US & Iran. Note this is Iran’s key points which is essentially a surrender of all desired points from the US. This led to one HUGE drop from $110-115 to $95 - question is will this be escalated or de-escalated….I think the former is likely.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-08 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have surged to ~$111–$112 WTI, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupts 20% of global oil flows. Despite this rally, the market isn't truly out of oil; approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude are stuck in logistical limbo. U.S. production remains robust at 13.6 mbpd, and gasoline inventories are above average. However, if demand falters or logistical issues resolve, prices could retrace sharply. Watch for developments in the Hormuz region and demand fluctuations.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$109.27
$0.5
WTI:
$112.95
$0.54
Spread:
$-3.68
(WTI premium of $3.68)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
73,347
Weekly Change:
20,989
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$97.17
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $103.62
MA(20): $98.28
Current Price is 97.17, 9 day MA 103.62, 20 day MA 98.28
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 7.4491
Signal: 7.525
Days since crossover: 1
MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.06
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 28,721
Avg (20d): 363,846
Ratio: 0.08
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 38.48
%D: 71.52
Stochastic %K: 38.48, %D: 71.52. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 56.69
+DI: 29.84
-DI: 16.93
ADX: 56.69 (+DI: 29.84, -DI: 16.93). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -61.52
Williams %R: -61.52 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.47
Middle: 98.28
Lower: 84.08
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.47, Middle: 98.28, Lower: 84.08
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13657.0 | 13580.0 | 12952.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6454.0 | 6466.0 | 6272.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4149.0 | 3521.0 | 3881.0 | 2893.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16250.0 | 16379.0 | 15558.0 | 15664.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2175.0 | 2933.0 | 2585.0 | 3379.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 464717.0 | 461636.0 | 439792.0 | 456717.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688247.0 | 1688663.0 | 1605891.0 | 1601125.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 239272.0 | 240861.0 | 237577.0 | 228917.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114681.0 | 117825.0 | 114626.0 | 113751.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $109.27, change $-0.5. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $112.95, change $+0.54. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-3.68 (WTI premium of $3.68). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$109.27
0.5
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$112.95
0.54
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-3.68
WTI premium of $3.68
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The revised US economic growth forecast is 2.2% for 2026, with a stable 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecast remains at 1.2% for both years, while Japan's is at 0.9%. China's growth forecast is steady at 4.5%, and India's outlook remains strong at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth is projected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD at 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The same growth is expected in 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, margins were impacted by increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore experienced a similar decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates increased significantly, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates experienced a strong performance, reaching a 10-year high for the month. In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d to average 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined m-o-m, while product exports increased due to higher fuel oil and diesel inflows. Japan's crude imports surged to an average of just under 3 mb/d, while China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average, but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d and is projected to increase to 43.6 mb/d in 2027. The world oil demand for 2026 is forecasted at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d. This results in a DoC requirement gap of 42.5 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-31
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: 28,905
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-31
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,030,970 contracts (+28,905)
Managed Money Net Position: 73,347 contracts (3.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -20,989 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 287,728 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -532,819 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
95
Last Updated:
2026-04-08 23:52:51
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Latin America Less Exposed to Crude Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises Amid Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise Amid Increased Supply Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Middle East Ceasefire Triggers Australian Dollar Rally — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East War Could Reshape Global Energy Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Higher Oil Prices on a Middle East Escalation Could Spur Rate Hike Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$97.17
Closest Support:
$96.17
1.03% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$106.42
9.52% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.45
0.236
$72.85
0.382
$81.76
0.5
$88.97
0.618
$96.17
Support
0.786
$106.42
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.08
1.618
$157.2
2.0
$180.51
2.618
$218.23
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$94.41
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-08 23:52:53
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | $95.54 | $83.35 | $107.73 |
| 2026-04-10 | $97.01 | $84.81 | $109.2 |
| 2026-04-11 | $96.5 | $84.31 | $108.69 |
| 2026-04-12 | $97.39 | $85.2 | $109.58 |
| 2026-04-13 | $95.79 | $83.6 | $107.98 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.20% for the next trading day (2026-04-09), reaching $95.54.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-09 and 2026-04-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~25.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, driven by increasing demand forecasts and a tightening supply outlook, suggests potential upward price movements. The $62.31/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a slight increase, while the $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics.
Traders should monitor the support levels around $60/b for WTI and $62/b for Brent, as a break below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment. Conversely, resistance is observed near $65/b for Brent and $63/b for WTI.
The risk of volatility remains, especially with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels, which could impact short-term trading strategies.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, producers should consider adjusting production plans to meet this anticipated increase. The recent decline in $439 tb/d in DoC crude production highlights a tightening market, which could support prices.
Inventory levels are also critical; the 2,845 mb of OECD commercial stocks, while higher than last year, indicate a need for strategic hedging strategies to mitigate price risks. Producers should remain agile in their operations to capitalize on any upward price movements while managing exposure to market fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The current bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests potential fluctuations in input costs for consumers reliant on crude oil. With WTI prices around $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b, procurement strategies should factor in possible price increases due to geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.
Additionally, the risk of supply reliability is heightened by geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels, necessitating careful planning for hedging against potential price spikes. Consumers should also monitor international imports and exports, particularly from regions experiencing increased demand, such as China and India.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish fundamentals and bearish sentiment. The ongoing growth in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, contrasts with the recent bearish sentiment reflected in news articles and market positioning.
Key driving factors include the tightening supply from DoC countries and increased geopolitical risks, which could shift market dynamics. Analysts should focus on the potential for price volatility due to speculative positioning and ongoing geopolitical developments, especially in the Middle East.
As the market evolves, continuous monitoring of CFTC positioning and sentiment analysis will be crucial for identifying shifts in market outlook.
Disclaimer: The insights provided are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.