WTI entered the week at $99.50 off a +48% March surge — the largest single-month gain since 2020 — and spent Monday through Tuesday pricing in the apocalypse, closing at $112.41 on April 6 before U.S. forces struck Kharg Island (Iran's terminal handling ~90% of its crude exports) and briefly pushed prices above $113 on April 7. Then Wednesday happened: Trump announced a two-week "double-sided ceasefire," Iran agreed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the entire Goldman Sachs-estimated $14–18/bbl war risk premium evaporated in roughly four hours — driving WTI down 15%+ to ~$94. The retreat is real, but the supply math has not changed: EIA projects Middle East shut-ins peaking at 9.1 mb/d in April with a 5.1 mb/d global inventory draw through Q2, Kharg Island is physically damaged regardless of any ceasefire, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline bypass route took a drone strike this week, the IEA's record 400 million barrel emergency release has been partially deployed, and the EIA's own base case does not see Brent below $90 until Q4 — meaning the market may have priced in a resolution that a two-week diplomatic window has not actually delivered. The two-week ceasefire clock is the only thing that matters right now — every headline out of Tehran, Washington, and Riyadh is a ±$8–12/bbl binary event. Set your alerts. Stay nimble. This is not a market for set-and-forget positions. WTI is testing the $95–98 pivot zone (0.382 Fib / 50-day SMA confluence) as of today's close. A confirmed hold here keeps the base-case range of $88–$105 intact. A break below $92 starts pricing in a full ceasefire resolution and opens the door to the EIA's Q3 forecast of near $80. Bear Risk: Demand destruction is quietly becoming the second act of this story. The IEA already cut 2026 global demand growth to 0.6 mb/d (from 1.2 mb/d). Asian rationing, $6+ U.S. gasoline, and flight cancellations across Europe are not transitory. Even if the Strait re-closes, a demand-side miss can overwhelm the supply bull case faster than most models suggest.Bull Risk: Kharg Island is damaged and the East-West pipeline took a hit this week — two of the three meaningful supply-bypass routes are now compromised. If the ceasefire collapses, the re-escalation trade has less infrastructure cushion than round one did. The re-test of $115–$130 territory would be faster and steeper. The WTI–Brent spread as a real-time signal — it inverted mid-week (WTI $111 vs Brent $107), which was the market screaming Cushing tightness. If the spread re-inverts as the ceasefire narrative fades, that's your early warning that domestic supply is tightening again before the headline risk fully reprices.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-09 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil has seen a rollercoaster ride recently, starting the week at $99.50 after a remarkable March surge. The market briefly spiked above $113 following geopolitical tensions, only to retreat sharply after a two-week ceasefire was announced, dropping WTI to around $94. Supply remains under pressure with projected Middle East shut-ins and infrastructure damage, while demand concerns loom as IEA cuts growth forecasts. Watch key levels around $95-$98, as volatility continues to reign supreme in this high-stakes game.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$94.75
$14.52
WTI:
$94.41
$18.54
Spread:
$0.34
(Brent premium of $0.34)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
73,347
Weekly Change:
20,989
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$98.12
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $103.72
MA(20): $98.68
Current Price is 98.12, 9 day MA 103.72, 20 day MA 98.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 6.4425
Signal: 7.2733
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.68
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.68 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 18,445
Avg (20d): 366,410
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 41.34
%D: 52.49
Stochastic %K: 41.34, %D: 52.49. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 53.16
+DI: 27.52
-DI: 19.5
ADX: 53.16 (+DI: 27.52, -DI: 19.5). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -58.66
Williams %R: -58.66 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.07
Middle: 98.68
Lower: 85.29
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.07, Middle: 98.68, Lower: 85.29
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13657.0 | 13580.0 | 12952.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6454.0 | 6466.0 | 6272.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4149.0 | 3521.0 | 3881.0 | 2893.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16250.0 | 16379.0 | 15558.0 | 15664.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2175.0 | 2933.0 | 2585.0 | 3379.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 464717.0 | 461636.0 | 439792.0 | 456717.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688247.0 | 1688663.0 | 1605891.0 | 1601125.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 239272.0 | 240861.0 | 237577.0 | 228917.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114681.0 | 117825.0 | 114626.0 | 113751.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $94.75, change $-14.52. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $94.41, change $-18.54. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $0.34 (Brent premium of $0.34). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$94.75
14.52
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$94.41
18.54
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$0.34
Brent premium of $0.34
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The economic outlook for major economies is as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Unchanged at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintains a forecast of 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: Forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Remains at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 is projected at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, remaining unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Expected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Additionally:
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
- In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses mainly from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop.
- Singapore: Declines driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, influenced by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, up by 64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased by 12% m-o-m due to weather disruptions.
- Aframax rates also saw strong performance, reaching a 10-year high in January.
- Clean tanker market rates showed strong performance, particularly East of Suez, with a 17% m-o-m increase.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average. Key trade flow developments include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, totaling 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. For 2027, the demand is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also 0.6 mb/d higher than the previous year. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap indicates that the DoC requirement will need to be met by increasing production from participating countries to maintain market balance. Strategic production decisions will be crucial in addressing this gap.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-03-31
Managed Money
73,347
Change: -20,989
3.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
287,728
Change: +20,440
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-532,819
Change: +1,479
-26.2% of OI
Open Interest
2,030,970
Change: 28,905
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-03-31
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,030,970 contracts (+28,905)
Managed Money Net Position: 73,347 contracts (3.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -20,989 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 287,728 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -532,819 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
119
Last Updated:
2026-04-09 23:53:52
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (7 articles)
- Oil Supply Unlikely to Recover Fully Near Term — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Renewed Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Plunge as Cease-Fire Raises Hopes for Restored Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Oil Output Recovery Depends on Shipping — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Markets Likely Past Peak of Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Latin America Less Exposed to Crude Supply Disruptions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises Amid Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (2 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Asian stocks in sober mood as oil rises on Middle East truce doubts Reuters
- Crude Prices Fall Sharply as Geopolitical Risks Ease Barchart
- Middle East Oil Output Recovery Depends on Shipping — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Ceasefire Triggers Australian Dollar Rally — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East War Could Reshape Global Energy Markets — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Higher Oil Prices on a Middle East Escalation Could Spur Rate Hike Expectations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.88
Daily:
-0.25 (-0.26%)
Weekly:
-1.15 (-1.15%)
US_10Y
4.29
Daily:
0.0 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.46%)
SP500
6824.66
Daily:
41.85 (0.62%)
Weekly:
241.97 (3.68%)
VIX
19.49
Daily:
-1.55 (-7.37%)
Weekly:
-4.38 (-18.35%)
GOLD
4788.2
Daily:
38.7 (0.81%)
Weekly:
136.7 (2.94%)
COPPER
5.78
Daily:
0.02 (0.27%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.81%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$98.12
Closest Support:
$96.26
1.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$106.47
8.51% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.7
0.236
$73.04
0.382
$81.92
0.5
$89.09
0.618
$96.26
Support
0.786
$106.47
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.01
1.618
$157.04
2.0
$180.26
2.618
$217.82
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$97.87
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-09 23:53:55
Next Trading Day:
UP 1.4%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $99.24 | $87.02 | $111.46 |
| 2026-04-11 | $98.52 | $86.29 | $110.74 |
| 2026-04-12 | $99.5 | $87.27 | $111.72 |
| 2026-04-13 | $97.48 | $85.26 | $109.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | $97.73 | $85.51 | $109.95 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~1.40% for the next trading day (2026-04-10), reaching $99.24.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.5% between 2026-04-10 and 2026-04-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~24.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market conditions suggest bearish sentiment, with a $94.75 Brent and $94.41 WTI price point indicating potential volatility. The Brent-WTI spread at $0.34 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, which may provide short-term trading opportunities. Traders should monitor the risk factors stemming from geopolitical events and inventory levels that could impact price direction.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current balance of supply and demand indicates stable production planning, with 43.0 mb/d demand for DoC crude in 2026. Producers should consider hedging strategies against the backdrop of fluctuating inventory levels, particularly as OECD commercial stocks are up 89.9 mb year-on-year. Market sentiment is shifting towards bearish, which may affect operational strategies.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the current supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The $94.75 Brent and $94.41 WTI prices suggest that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted to hedge against rising costs. Monitoring product availability and refining margins will be crucial in maintaining operational efficiency.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing bearish sentiment, driven by a combination of technical indicators, geopolitical uncertainties, and inventory dynamics. The fundamentals show steady demand growth, yet producers are facing challenges with supply disruptions. Analysts should focus on the implications of the ML forecasts and positioning data, which suggest a potential shift in market outlook as managed money positions weaken.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.