WTI entered the week at $99.50 off a +48% March surge — the largest single-month gain since 2020 — and spent Monday through Tuesday pricing in the apocalypse, closing at $112.41 on April 6 before U.S. forces struck Kharg Island (Iran's terminal handling ~90% of its crude exports) and briefly pushed prices above $113 on April 7. Then Wednesday happened: Trump announced a two-week "double-sided ceasefire," Iran agreed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the entire Goldman Sachs-estimated $14–18/bbl war risk premium evaporated in roughly four hours — driving WTI down 15%+ to ~$94. The retreat is real, but the supply math has not changed: EIA projects Middle East shut-ins peaking at 9.1 mb/d in April with a 5.1 mb/d global inventory draw through Q2, Kharg Island is physically damaged regardless of any ceasefire, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline bypass route took a drone strike this week, the IEA's record 400 million barrel emergency release has been partially deployed, and the EIA's own base case does not see Brent below $90 until Q4 — meaning the market may have priced in a resolution that a two-week diplomatic window has not actually delivered. The two-week ceasefire clock is the only thing that matters right now — every headline out of Tehran, Washington, and Riyadh is a ±$8–12/bbl binary event. Set your alerts. Stay nimble. This is not a market for set-and-forget positions. WTI is testing the $95–98 pivot zone (0.382 Fib / 50-day SMA confluence) as of today's close. A confirmed hold here keeps the base-case range of $88–$105 intact. A break below $92 starts pricing in a full ceasefire resolution and opens the door to the EIA's Q3 forecast of near $80. Bear Risk: Demand destruction is quietly becoming the second act of this story. The IEA already cut 2026 global demand growth to 0.6 mb/d (from 1.2 mb/d). Asian rationing, $6+ U.S. gasoline, and flight cancellations across Europe are not transitory. Even if the Strait re-closes, a demand-side miss can overwhelm the supply bull case faster than most models suggest.Bull Risk: Kharg Island is damaged and the East-West pipeline took a hit this week — two of the three meaningful supply-bypass routes are now compromised. If the ceasefire collapses, the re-escalation trade has less infrastructure cushion than round one did. The re-test of $115–$130 territory would be faster and steeper. The WTI–Brent spread as a real-time signal — it inverted mid-week (WTI $111 vs Brent $107), which was the market screaming Cushing tightness. If the spread re-inverts as the ceasefire narrative fades, that's your early warning that domestic supply is tightening again before the headline risk fully reprices.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-11 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have experienced significant volatility, starting the week at $99.50 after a 48% surge in March. Tensions peaked with U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island, briefly pushing WTI above $113. However, a ceasefire announcement led to a swift decline, with prices dropping over 15% to around $94. Despite this retreat, supply disruptions remain, with EIA forecasting major Middle East shut-ins. Traders should remain agile, as every headline could swing prices by $8–12/bbl, while demand destruction slowly lurks in the background.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$95.2
$0.72
WTI:
$96.57
$1.3
Spread:
$-1.37
(WTI premium of $1.37)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
78,700
Weekly Change:
5,353
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$96.57
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $103.35
MA(20): $98.71
Current Price is 96.57, 9 day MA 103.35, 20 day MA 98.71
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 5.6139
Signal: 6.9382
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.3
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.3 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 427,201
Avg (20d): 380,758
Ratio: 1.12
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 36.68
%D: 35.82
Stochastic %K: 36.68, %D: 35.82. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 50.58
+DI: 25.71
-DI: 18.22
ADX: 50.58 (+DI: 25.71, -DI: 18.22). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -63.32
Williams %R: -63.32 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.07
Middle: 98.71
Lower: 85.35
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.07, Middle: 98.71, Lower: 85.35
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13657.0 | 13580.0 | 12952.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6454.0 | 6466.0 | 6272.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4149.0 | 3521.0 | 3881.0 | 2893.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16250.0 | 16379.0 | 15558.0 | 15664.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2175.0 | 2933.0 | 2585.0 | 3379.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 464717.0 | 461636.0 | 439792.0 | 456717.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688247.0 | 1688663.0 | 1605891.0 | 1601125.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 239272.0 | 240861.0 | 237577.0 | 228917.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114681.0 | 117825.0 | 114626.0 | 113751.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $95.2, change $-0.72. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $96.57, change $-1.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-1.37 (WTI premium of $1.37). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$95.2
0.72
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$96.57
1.3
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-1.37
WTI premium of $1.37
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread widened by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, reduced selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, as hedge funds and other money managers significantly increased their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain steady at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key regional forecasts include:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, stable at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Consistent at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Maintained at 0.9% for both years
- China: Steady at 4.5% for both years
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Stable at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Unchanged at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Anticipated growth of +1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d y-o-y, with the OECD growing by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by +0.6 mb/d y-o-y in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries indicates a growth of +0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027, averaging about 8.8 mb/d and 8.9 mb/d, respectively.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d m-o-m, averaging 42.45 mb/d according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Margins suffered from increased heavy crude supply affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins decreased, with gasoline leading the decline.
- Singapore: Margins fell due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, driven by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by +64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased by +12% m-o-m due to weather disruptions and strong demand.
- Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates rising by +10% m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by +17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average. US crude exports rose by almost +0.2 mb/d m-o-m to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa. Key trade flow insights include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined m-o-m, influenced by lower flows from Kazakhstan.
- Japan: Crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight m-o-m decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by +6.5 mb m-o-m to 2,845 mb. This level is +89.9 mb higher y-o-y and +44.1 mb above the latest five-year average. Key stock movements include:
- Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, +75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by +0.7 days m-o-m to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is +0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis reveals a significant supply-demand gap, highlighting the need for strategic production decisions to maintain market balance.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-07
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: 6,887
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-07
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,037,857 contracts (+6,887)
Managed Money Net Position: 78,700 contracts (3.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +5,353 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,113 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -523,579 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
84
Last Updated:
2026-04-11 23:52:48
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil Supply Unlikely to Recover Fully Near Term — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises on Renewed Supply-Disruption Concerns — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Plunge as Cease-Fire Raises Hopes for Restored Supply — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Oil Output Recovery Depends on Shipping — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Markets Likely Past Peak of Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (6 articles)
- Equities turn around on renewed Middle East hopes, oil loses some steam Reuters
- Relief rally stalls as Middle East truce doubts drive up oil Reuters
- Stocks slip as Middle East truce doubts drive up oil Reuters
- Asian stocks in sober mood as oil rises on Middle East truce doubts Reuters
- Crude Prices Fall Sharply as Geopolitical Risks Ease Barchart
- Middle East Oil Output Recovery Depends on Shipping — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.65
Daily:
-0.17 (-0.17%)
Weekly:
-1.33 (-1.33%)
US_10Y
4.32
Daily:
0.02 (0.56%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.42%)
SP500
6816.89
Daily:
-7.77 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
205.06 (3.1%)
VIX
19.23
Daily:
-0.26 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-4.94 (-20.44%)
GOLD
4761.9
Daily:
-30.3 (-0.63%)
Weekly:
105.1 (2.26%)
COPPER
5.87
Daily:
0.12 (2.13%)
Weekly:
0.29 (5.14%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$96.57
Closest Support:
$96.26
0.32% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$106.47
10.25% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.7
0.236
$73.04
0.382
$81.92
0.5
$89.09
0.618
$96.26
Support
0.786
$106.47
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.01
1.618
$157.04
2.0
$180.26
2.618
$217.82
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$96.57
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-11 23:52:50
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.58%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | $96.01 | $83.82 | $108.2 |
| 2026-04-12 | $97.21 | $85.01 | $109.4 |
| 2026-04-13 | $95.06 | $82.86 | $107.25 |
| 2026-04-14 | $95.47 | $83.28 | $107.66 |
| 2026-04-15 | $95.5 | $83.31 | $107.7 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.58% for the next trading day (2026-04-11), reaching $96.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-11 and 2026-04-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~25.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market conditions suggest a bearish sentiment, as indicated by the overall market sentiment score of -0.600. Price movements show that the Brent crude settled at $95.20 and WTI at $96.57, with a Brent-WTI spread of $-1.37. This spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics and geopolitical factors.
Traders should be cautious of potential volatility, especially with the support levels around the previous month’s highs. The resistance levels may be tested if the bullish positioning from managed money increases, which has shown a normal range increase of +5,353 contracts in net positions.
Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, particularly as the market sentiment shifts based on news developments.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the balance of supply and demand remaining stable, producers should focus on optimizing production planning to align with the forecasted demand growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2026 and 1.3 mb/d in 2027. The bearish sentiment may impact pricing strategies, necessitating effective hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices.
The rising inventory levels, particularly in OECD crude stocks, indicate a need for caution in production increases. The 439 tb/d decrease in DoC production highlights the importance of monitoring market signals and adjusting operations accordingly.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Input cost fluctuations are likely as the WTI and Brent prices remain high. Consumers should prepare for potential increases in procurement costs, particularly as geopolitical tensions create supply reliability risks.
The risk of supply disruptions is heightened by ongoing geopolitical issues, which may affect crude imports and refined product availability. The recent surge in crude imports by China and Japan indicates competitive pressure on supply chains, suggesting that consumers should consider strategic procurement or hedging to mitigate cost impacts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by several key factors: a bearish market sentiment, stable demand forecasts, and increasing inventory levels. The positioning data shows managed money traders are bullish, which may signal potential upward price movements if they continue to increase their net long positions.
Analysts should closely monitor the geopolitical landscape, as it remains a significant driver of price volatility. The balance between supply and demand suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook for demand growth remains positive, particularly in non-OECD regions.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.