WTI entered the week at $99.50 off a +48% March surge — the largest single-month gain since 2020 — and spent Monday through Tuesday pricing in the apocalypse, closing at $112.41 on April 6 before U.S. forces struck Kharg Island (Iran's terminal handling ~90% of its crude exports) and briefly pushed prices above $113 on April 7. Then Wednesday happened: Trump announced a two-week "double-sided ceasefire," Iran agreed to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the entire Goldman Sachs-estimated $14–18/bbl war risk premium evaporated in roughly four hours — driving WTI down 15%+ to ~$94. The retreat is real, but the supply math has not changed: EIA projects Middle East shut-ins peaking at 9.1 mb/d in April with a 5.1 mb/d global inventory draw through Q2, Kharg Island is physically damaged regardless of any ceasefire, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline bypass route took a drone strike this week, the IEA's record 400 million barrel emergency release has been partially deployed, and the EIA's own base case does not see Brent below $90 until Q4 — meaning the market may have priced in a resolution that a two-week diplomatic window has not actually delivered. The two-week ceasefire clock is the only thing that matters right now — every headline out of Tehran, Washington, and Riyadh is a ±$8–12/bbl binary event. Set your alerts. Stay nimble. This is not a market for set-and-forget positions. WTI is testing the $95–98 pivot zone (0.382 Fib / 50-day SMA confluence) as of today's close. A confirmed hold here keeps the base-case range of $88–$105 intact. A break below $92 starts pricing in a full ceasefire resolution and opens the door to the EIA's Q3 forecast of near $80. Bear Risk: Demand destruction is quietly becoming the second act of this story. The IEA already cut 2026 global demand growth to 0.6 mb/d (from 1.2 mb/d). Asian rationing, $6+ U.S. gasoline, and flight cancellations across Europe are not transitory. Even if the Strait re-closes, a demand-side miss can overwhelm the supply bull case faster than most models suggest.Bull Risk: Kharg Island is damaged and the East-West pipeline took a hit this week — two of the three meaningful supply-bypass routes are now compromised. If the ceasefire collapses, the re-escalation trade has less infrastructure cushion than round one did. The re-test of $115–$130 territory would be faster and steeper. The WTI–Brent spread as a real-time signal — it inverted mid-week (WTI $111 vs Brent $107), which was the market screaming Cushing tightness. If the spread re-inverts as the ceasefire narrative fades, that's your early warning that domestic supply is tightening again before the headline risk fully reprices.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-12 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil experienced a rollercoaster week, starting at $99.50, surging to $112.41, only to plummet to around $94 following failed U.S.-Iran peace talks. The geopolitical tensions, especially around Kharg Island, are still looming large, with projected Middle East shut-ins peaking at 9.1 mb/d in April. As prices test the $95–98 pivot zone, traders should stay alert; a break below $92 could signal a deeper retreat. However, supply vulnerabilities and demand concerns remain critical factors to watch in this volatile landscape.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$95.2
$0.72
WTI:
$96.57
$1.3
Spread:
$-1.37
(WTI premium of $1.37)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
78,700
Weekly Change:
5,353
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$105.02
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $103.59
MA(20): $99.03
Current Price is 105.02, 9 day MA 103.59, 20 day MA 99.03
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 5.5904
Signal: 6.6687
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 58.71
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 58.71 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 41,460
Avg (20d): 360,996
Ratio: 0.11
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 59.7
%D: 45.66
Stochastic %K: 59.7, %D: 45.66. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 48.74
+DI: 28.04
-DI: 16.89
ADX: 48.74 (+DI: 28.04, -DI: 16.89). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -40.3
Williams %R: -40.3 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 112.67
Middle: 99.03
Lower: 85.39
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 112.67, Middle: 99.03, Lower: 85.39
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13657.0 | 13580.0 | 12952.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6454.0 | 6466.0 | 6272.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4149.0 | 3521.0 | 3881.0 | 2893.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16250.0 | 16379.0 | 15558.0 | 15664.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2175.0 | 2933.0 | 2585.0 | 3379.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 464717.0 | 461636.0 | 439792.0 | 456717.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688247.0 | 1688663.0 | 1605891.0 | 1601125.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 239272.0 | 240861.0 | 237577.0 | 228917.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114681.0 | 117825.0 | 114626.0 | 113751.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $95.2, change $-0.72. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $96.57, change $-1.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-1.37 (WTI premium of $1.37). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$95.2
0.72
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$96.57
1.3
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-1.37
WTI premium of $1.37
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract saw an increase of $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth forecasts are steady at 0.9% for both years. China's economic growth is forecast at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027, while India's is projected at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's economic growth is forecast at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, with Russia's economic growth at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures. In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses were primarily driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline. In Singapore, the decline was influenced by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached their highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high for the month. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates showed a strong performance, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which was up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the latest five-year average. US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d. In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, m-o-m.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026 and 2027:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, requiring strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively. The implications of these dynamics will be critical for OPEC's future production strategies.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-07
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: 6,887
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-07
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,037,857 contracts (+6,887)
Managed Money Net Position: 78,700 contracts (3.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +5,353 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,113 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -523,579 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
60
Last Updated:
2026-04-12 23:53:06
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Supply Relief from Persian Gulf Will Take Weeks to Materialize, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Supply Unlikely to Recover Fully Near Term — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Equities turn around on renewed Middle East hopes, oil pares gains Reuters
- Equities turn around on renewed Middle East hopes, oil loses some steam Reuters
- Relief rally stalls as Middle East truce doubts drive up oil Reuters
- Stocks slip as Middle East truce doubts drive up oil Reuters
- Asian stocks in sober mood as oil rises on Middle East truce doubts Reuters
Weather (1 articles)
- China Might Weather Oil-Price Shock Better Than Regional Peers — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.01
Daily:
0.36 (0.37%)
Weekly:
-0.63 (-0.63%)
US_10Y
4.32
Daily:
0.02 (0.56%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.42%)
SP500
6816.89
Daily:
-7.77 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
205.06 (3.1%)
VIX
19.23
Daily:
-0.26 (-1.33%)
Weekly:
-4.94 (-20.44%)
GOLD
4744.5
Daily:
-17.4 (-0.37%)
Weekly:
87.4 (1.88%)
COPPER
5.81
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.95%)
Weekly:
0.27 (4.87%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$105.02
Closest Support:
$96.26
8.34% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$106.47
1.38% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.7
0.236
$73.04
0.382
$81.92
0.5
$89.09
0.618
$96.26
Support
0.786
$106.47
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.01
1.618
$157.04
2.0
$180.26
2.618
$217.82
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$96.57
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-12 23:53:08
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.58%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | $96.01 | $83.82 | $108.21 |
| 2026-04-12 | $97.2 | $85.01 | $109.4 |
| 2026-04-13 | $95.06 | $82.86 | $107.25 |
| 2026-04-14 | $95.47 | $83.28 | $107.67 |
| 2026-04-15 | $95.5 | $83.31 | $107.7 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.58% for the next trading day (2026-04-11), reaching $96.01.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-11 and 2026-04-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~25.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment, supported by a significant increase in net long positions among managed money traders. The $64.73 average for ICE Brent and the $60.26 for NYMEX WTI indicate potential upward price momentum. Traders should monitor the Brent-WTI spread, currently at $4.47, which reflects the ongoing supply/demand dynamics. The volatility may arise from geopolitical tensions and potential supply disruptions, particularly in the Persian Gulf.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the demand for DoC crude expected to rise, producers should consider adjusting production plans to align with the forecasted increase of 0.6 mb/d in 2026. Current inventory levels show a slight increase in OECD commercial stocks, which may impact pricing strategies. Hedging against potential price fluctuations will be crucial, especially given the market sentiment and the tightening of supply due to production cuts from OPEC+.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with WTI and Brent prices hovering around $60.26 and $64.73 respectively. The geopolitical landscape poses supply reliability risks, urging firms to evaluate procurement strategies. The recent decline in refining margins indicates a need for careful monitoring of cost management strategies, particularly as product supply dynamics evolve.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties. Key drivers include a stable growth forecast for global oil demand at 1.4 mb/d in 2026 and a tightening supply from OPEC+ cuts. Analysts should consider the implications of rising speculative positions and the impact of inventory levels on market stability. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential shifts depending on geopolitical developments and economic performance.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.