Oil futures rise early based upon failed peace talks with US-Iran. The response shifted to the US stated plan to put a blockade into effect on the Strait of Hormuz (note - both Iran’s actions on the Strait and the US actions are considered illegal based on International law). WTI is still holding a premium to Brent and started the day at 1.02ish then expanded to 105 after ending the day down to below 98. The fundamentals are screaming for higher prices with the supply crunch - this all but assures that we will have demand destruction and an economic contraction. 100 will be the anchor and key bull/bear line - I think 110+ is on it’s way again.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-13 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are seeing fluctuations amidst tensions surrounding failed US-Iran peace talks and potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, WTI is trading above Brent, signaling strong fundamentals, yet the market is teetering on a potential demand destruction scenario tied to economic contractions. With key price anchors around $100, analysts suggest that prices could be heading back towards $110. However, be wary of geopolitical risks and supply disruptions that could sway market sentiment in unpredictable ways.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$95.2
$0.72
WTI:
$96.57
$1.3
Spread:
$-1.37
(WTI premium of $1.37)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
78,700
Weekly Change:
5,353
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$97.13
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $102.71
MA(20): $98.63
Current Price is 97.13, 9 day MA 102.71, 20 day MA 98.63
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 4.961
Signal: 6.5428
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.79
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.79 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 19,200
Avg (20d): 354,265
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 34.48
%D: 37.25
Stochastic %K: 34.48, %D: 37.25. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 48.18
+DI: 25.2
-DI: 17.86
ADX: 48.18 (+DI: 25.2, -DI: 17.86). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -65.52
Williams %R: -65.52 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.01
Middle: 98.63
Lower: 85.25
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.01, Middle: 98.63, Lower: 85.25
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13657.0 | 13580.0 | 12952.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6454.0 | 6466.0 | 6272.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4149.0 | 3521.0 | 3881.0 | 2893.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16250.0 | 16379.0 | 15558.0 | 15664.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2175.0 | 2933.0 | 2585.0 | 3379.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 464717.0 | 461636.0 | 439792.0 | 456717.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688247.0 | 1688663.0 | 1605891.0 | 1601125.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 239272.0 | 240861.0 | 237577.0 | 228917.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114681.0 | 117825.0 | 114626.0 | 113751.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $95.2, change $-0.72. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $96.57, change $-1.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $-1.37 (WTI premium of $1.37). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$95.2
0.72
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$96.57
1.3
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$-1.37
WTI premium of $1.37
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Key economic growth outlooks include:
- US: 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth rates moving forward.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is as follows:
- 2026: +0.1 mb/d to average 8.8 mb/d
- 2027: +0.1 mb/d to average 8.9 mb/d
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, particularly gasoline and fuel oil.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Notable trends include:
- VLCC spot freight rates: Up by 64%, y-o-y, reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade.
- Suezmax rates: Increased by 12%, m-o-m, more than double year-ago levels.
- Aframax rates: Strong performance with a 10% m-o-m increase, reaching a 10-year high.
- Clean tanker market: Spot rates up by 17%, m-o-m, for Middle East-to-East routes.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average. Key trade developments include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks: 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- OECD total product stocks: 1,481 mb, 14.4 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover: Increased by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting similar growth.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement reflects the need for continued cooperation among participating countries to meet projected demand levels.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-07
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: 6,887
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-07
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,037,857 contracts (+6,887)
Managed Money Net Position: 78,700 contracts (3.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +5,353 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,113 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -523,579 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
66
Last Updated:
2026-04-13 23:52:58
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Shorter Timeline to Onshore Inventory 'Angst' Likely Amid U.S. Blockade of Iranian Oil — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Energy Supply Disruptions Could Continue in Coming Months — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Global Inflation Likely to Rise Amid Oil Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Supply Relief from Persian Gulf Will Take Weeks to Materialize, Goldman Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Weather (1 articles)
- China Might Weather Oil-Price Shock Better Than Regional Peers — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.34
Daily:
-0.31 (-0.32%)
Weekly:
-1.3 (-1.31%)
US_10Y
4.3
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.46%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.06%)
SP500
6886.24
Daily:
69.35 (1.02%)
Weekly:
269.39 (4.07%)
VIX
19.12
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.57%)
Weekly:
-6.66 (-25.83%)
GOLD
4790.3
Daily:
28.4 (0.6%)
Weekly:
133.2 (2.86%)
COPPER
6.01
Daily:
0.14 (2.39%)
Weekly:
0.47 (8.41%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$97.13
Closest Support:
$96.26
0.9% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$106.47
9.62% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.7
0.236
$73.04
0.382
$81.92
0.5
$89.09
0.618
$96.26
Support
0.786
$106.47
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.01
1.618
$157.04
2.0
$180.26
2.618
$217.82
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$99.08
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-13 23:53:00
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.96%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | $100.03 | $87.86 | $112.2 |
| 2026-04-15 | $97.78 | $85.61 | $109.96 |
| 2026-04-16 | $98.23 | $86.06 | $110.4 |
| 2026-04-17 | $98.06 | $85.89 | $110.24 |
| 2026-04-18 | $98.27 | $86.1 | $110.44 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.96% for the next trading day (2026-04-14), reaching $100.03.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.8% between 2026-04-14 and 2026-04-18.
- The average confidence interval width is ~24.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the market, indicated by the increase in managed money net positions to 78,700 contracts, suggests potential upward price movements. The Brent-WTI spread at -$1.37 highlights the ongoing divergence in supply/demand dynamics, which could present short-term volatility risks for traders. Watch for support levels around $60.00 for WTI and $62.00 for Brent, while resistance may be seen at $64.50 for Brent and $62.50 for WTI. Given the current market conditions, traders should also be alert for potential price corrections.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance of supply and demand remains stable, with demand for DoC crude projected to be 43.0 mb/d in 2026. Producers should consider hedging strategies to protect against potential price fluctuations, particularly with current inventory levels showing an increase in product stocks. The 2,845 mb of OECD commercial oil inventories indicates a healthy supply, but the decline in refining margins may impact profitability. Producers should align their production planning with the anticipated market demand growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2026.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the current bearish sentiment in product margins and the potential for input cost fluctuations, consumers should prepare for variability in WTI and Brent prices. The geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could pose supply reliability risks. Consumers are advised to monitor crude import levels, which have shown fluctuations in major markets, and consider procurement strategies that mitigate exposure to price spikes, especially as winter demand approaches.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a convergence of bullish fundamentals and bearish technicals. Key driving factors include the stable demand growth forecast of 1.4 mb/d for 2026 and the increased net long positions by managed money. However, the decline in refining margins and geopolitical uncertainties present potential downside risks. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in market sentiment and adjust forecasts accordingly, especially in light of the ML price predictions indicating potential price corrections.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.