Different day = different narrative. Monday was leading to escalation with no peace coming out of the weekend talks. Tuesday led to a big BIG drop as headlines came out about a second round of negotiations which led traders to navigate that we could be looking at a diplomatic solution - but also pricing in an expectation that the physical conditions will be far from normal. Big questions remain which include will the Strait of Hormuz be tolled and managed by Iran/Oman from here forward? If so - this changes a big portion of geopolitics. $90.82 is the bull line in the sand…with $101.98 having unfinished business. Diplomacy could drop us to 81.29 again but tension brings us back over $100.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-14 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil has experienced a rollercoaster week, driven by fluctuating narratives surrounding U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks. Initial tensions hinted at escalating prices, but optimism over negotiations has led to a downward trend, with prices dropping to around $85.35 and potential support at $79. Key market levels include a pivotal $90.82, while $101.98 remains unfinished business. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz could reshape geopolitical dynamics, affecting future pricing. Watch for developments in diplomacy and inventory changes ahead!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$99.36
$4.16
WTI:
$99.08
$2.51
Spread:
$0.28
(Brent premium of $0.28)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
78,700
Weekly Change:
5,353
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$90.97
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $101.77
MA(20): $98.6
Current Price is 90.97, 9 day MA 101.77, 20 day MA 98.6
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 4.0216
Signal: 6.0634
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.18
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.18 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 21,033
Avg (20d): 348,801
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 14.47
%D: 30.62
Stochastic %K: 14.47, %D: 30.62. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 45.57
+DI: 25.36
-DI: 23.2
ADX: 45.57 (+DI: 25.36, -DI: 23.2). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -85.53
Williams %R: -85.53 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.21
Middle: 98.6
Lower: 85.0
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.21, Middle: 98.6, Lower: 85.0
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13657.0 | 13580.0 | 12952.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6324.0 | 6454.0 | 6466.0 | 6272.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4149.0 | 3521.0 | 3881.0 | 2893.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16250.0 | 16379.0 | 15558.0 | 15664.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2175.0 | 2933.0 | 2585.0 | 3379.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 464717.0 | 461636.0 | 439792.0 | 456717.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688247.0 | 1688663.0 | 1605891.0 | 1601125.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 239272.0 | 240861.0 | 237577.0 | 228917.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114681.0 | 117825.0 | 114626.0 | 113751.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $99.36, change $+4.16. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $99.08, change $+2.51. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $0.28 (Brent premium of $0.28). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$99.36
4.16
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$99.08
2.51
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$0.28
Brent premium of $0.28
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
• In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b.
• The NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation.
• Oil supply outages and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts, while speculative sentiment turned bullish with increased net long positions among hedge funds.
• The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b.
• The NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b.
• The GME Oman front-month contract increased by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
• The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves for major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation.
• Oil supply outages and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts, while speculative sentiment turned bullish with increased net long positions among hedge funds.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
• Global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
• US economic growth forecast revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth forecast steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan's growth forecast remains at 0.9% for both years.
• China's growth forecast is stable at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
• India's growth forecast remains at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil's growth forecast is steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
• Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to impact economic growth.
• US economic growth forecast revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth forecast steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan's growth forecast remains at 0.9% for both years.
• China's growth forecast is stable at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
• India's growth forecast remains at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil's growth forecast is steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
• Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to impact economic growth.
World Oil Demand Trends
• Global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d, y-o-y.
• OECD demand is expected to increase by +0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by +1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
• OECD demand is expected to increase by +0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand remains robust with a forecast of +1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic growth in emerging markets, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
• OECD demand is expected to increase by +0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by +1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by +1.3 mb/d, y-o-y.
• OECD demand is expected to increase by +0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand remains robust with a forecast of +1.2 mb/d.
• Key demand drivers include economic growth in emerging markets, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
World Oil Supply Analysis
• Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by +0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.
• Key growth drivers include Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
• In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 42.45 mb/d.
• The outlook for non-DoC production remains positive, driven by increasing output from major producers.
• Key growth drivers include Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina.
• DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by +0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027.
• In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 42.45 mb/d.
• The outlook for non-DoC production remains positive, driven by increasing output from major producers.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
• Refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs in January due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures.
• In the US Gulf Coast, refining margins were negatively impacted by increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
• In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decrease.
• Singapore also saw a decline in margins driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
• Seasonal demand pressures are expected to continue influencing refining operations.
• In the US Gulf Coast, refining margins were negatively impacted by increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
• In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decrease.
• Singapore also saw a decline in margins driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
• Seasonal demand pressures are expected to continue influencing refining operations.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
• Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
• VLCC spot freight rates increased significantly, with Middle East-to-East route rates reaching a decade high, up +64% y-o-y.
• Suezmax rates rose by +12% m-o-m due to weather disruptions and increased demand from European refiners.
• Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates rising by +10% m-o-m.
• Clean tanker market rates showed strong performance, particularly in the East of Suez region.
• VLCC spot freight rates increased significantly, with Middle East-to-East route rates reaching a decade high, up +64% y-o-y.
• Suezmax rates rose by +12% m-o-m due to weather disruptions and increased demand from European refiners.
• Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates rising by +10% m-o-m.
• Clean tanker market rates showed strong performance, particularly in the East of Suez region.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
• US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average.
• US crude exports rose by +0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
• Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous elevated levels.
• In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
• US crude exports rose by +0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
• Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous elevated levels.
• In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
• China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
• OECD commercial oil inventories rose by +6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb in December.
• Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is +75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
• Total product stocks reached 1,481 mb, +14.4 mb higher y-o-y.
• Days of forward cover increased by +0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, indicating a stable supply outlook.
• Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is +75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
• Total product stocks reached 1,481 mb, +14.4 mb higher y-o-y.
• Days of forward cover increased by +0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, indicating a stable supply outlook.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
• The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, +0.6 mb/d higher than 2025.
• The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains at 43.6 mb/d, also +0.6 mb/d higher than 2026.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is forecast at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement gap.
• The demand for DoC crude in 2027 remains at 43.6 mb/d, also +0.6 mb/d higher than 2026.
• The world oil demand for 2026 is forecast at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement gap.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
• The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward.
• The market outlook suggests a careful balancing act for OPEC as it navigates between demand growth and supply constraints.
• The market outlook suggests a careful balancing act for OPEC as it navigates between demand growth and supply constraints.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-07
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: 6,887
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-07
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,037,857 contracts (+6,887)
Managed Money Net Position: 78,700 contracts (3.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +5,353 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,113 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -523,579 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
75
Last Updated:
2026-04-14 23:53:00
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- South Korea Crude Imports Set to Fall in April, May Amid Mideast Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Shows People Expect Short Term Conflict in Iran — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Threat to Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Likely Further Escalates Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.17
Daily:
-0.2 (-0.2%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-0.97%)
US_10Y
4.26
Daily:
-0.04 (-0.95%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.82%)
SP500
6967.38
Daily:
81.14 (1.18%)
Weekly:
184.57 (2.72%)
VIX
18.36
Daily:
-0.76 (-3.97%)
Weekly:
-2.68 (-12.74%)
GOLD
4851.4
Daily:
109.0 (2.3%)
Weekly:
101.9 (2.15%)
COPPER
6.1
Daily:
0.13 (2.12%)
Weekly:
0.34 (5.96%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$90.97
Closest Support:
$89.09
2.07% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$96.26
5.82% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.7
0.236
$73.04
0.382
$81.92
0.5
$89.09
Support
0.618
$96.26
Resistance
0.786
$106.47
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.01
1.618
$157.04
2.0
$180.26
2.618
$217.82
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$91.28
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-14 23:53:03
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 1.57%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | $89.85 | $77.27 | $102.42 |
| 2026-04-16 | $90.51 | $77.93 | $103.08 |
| 2026-04-17 | $90.62 | $78.05 | $103.19 |
| 2026-04-18 | $90.61 | $78.03 | $103.18 |
| 2026-04-19 | $89.77 | $77.2 | $102.35 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~1.57% for the next trading day (2026-04-15), reaching $89.85.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-15 and 2026-04-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~27.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment with a significant increase in managed money net positions, indicating a potential upward price movement. The $62.31/b average OPEC Reference Basket value and the $64.73/b average for ICE Brent reflect a strengthening market. Traders should monitor the $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread, which signals supply/demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.
The forward curve's transition into stronger backwardation presents opportunities for short-term trades, especially as speculative sentiment remains bullish. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations, particularly as U.S. crude futures have recently faced downward pressure.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand forecasts remaining stable at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, producers should consider this in their production planning and hedging strategies. The decrease in crude oil production from OPEC countries indicates a tightening supply that could support prices. However, the increase in non-DoC liquids production suggests potential competition in the market.
The rise in OECD commercial oil inventories, which are 44.1 mb above the five-year average, may impact market sentiment negatively, suggesting a need for careful inventory management. Producers should remain agile in response to market fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and shifts in consumer demand.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as the price of crude oil is projected to remain volatile. The recent $60.26/b average for NYMEX WTI and the $64.73/b for ICE Brent indicates that procurement strategies need to be adaptive to avoid cost spikes.
Additionally, geopolitical risks, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, pose reliability concerns for supply chains. With increasing tensions and the potential for disruptions, consumers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with supply shortages and price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish outlook driven by strong demand forecasts and a tightening supply environment. The increase in managed money positions indicates speculative interest, while geopolitical factors add a layer of complexity to market dynamics.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the supply-demand balance, particularly as OPEC production cuts and non-DoC production growth create contrasting pressures. Continuous monitoring of inventory levels and geopolitical developments will be crucial in predicting potential shifts in market sentiment and price trajectories.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.