Different day = different narrative. Monday was leading to escalation with no peace coming out of the weekend talks. Tuesday led to a big BIG drop as headlines came out about a second round of negotiations which led traders to navigate that we could be looking at a diplomatic solution - but also pricing in an expectation that the physical conditions will be far from normal. Big questions remain which include will the Strait of Hormuz be tolled and managed by Iran/Oman from here forward? If so - this changes a big portion of geopolitics. $90.82 is the bull line in the sand…with $101.98 having unfinished business. Diplomacy could drop us to 81.29 again but tension brings us back over $100.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-15 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Recent market fluctuations for crude oil reflect the ongoing geopolitical turbulence and negotiations. After a Monday of escalation fears, Tuesday saw a significant drop in prices as hopes for a diplomatic resolution emerged. Currently, oil prices are testing critical support around $89.22, with bulls eyeing the $90.82 mark. The narrative swings between potential peace deals and persistent supply concerns, indicating high volatility ahead. Traders should keep an eye on the Strait of Hormuz dynamics, as this could reshape market geopolitics significantly.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$94.79
$4.57
WTI:
$91.28
$7.8
Spread:
$3.51
(Brent premium of $3.51)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
78,700
Weekly Change:
5,353
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$91.65
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.86
MA(20): $98.39
Current Price is 91.65, 9 day MA 100.86, 20 day MA 98.39
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 3.1913
Signal: 5.493
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 47.76
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 47.76 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 8,449
Avg (20d): 348,542
Ratio: 0.02
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 7.61
%D: 21.26
Stochastic %K: 7.61, %D: 21.26. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 43.58
+DI: 25.93
-DI: 20.89
ADX: 43.58 (+DI: 25.93, -DI: 20.89). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -92.39
Williams %R: -92.39 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.27
Middle: 98.39
Lower: 84.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.27, Middle: 98.39, Lower: 84.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13596.0 | 13458.0 | 12954.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5291.0 | 6324.0 | 6189.0 | 6252.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5225.0 | 4149.0 | 3244.0 | 4799.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16042.0 | 16250.0 | 15627.0 | 15773.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 66.0 | 2175.0 | 2945.0 | 1453.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 463804.0 | 464717.0 | 442345.0 | 456273.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1675125.0 | 1688247.0 | 1607410.0 | 1603411.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 232944.0 | 239272.0 | 235977.0 | 228313.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 111559.0 | 114681.0 | 111082.0 | 112096.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $94.79, change $-4.57. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $91.28, change $-7.8. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.51 (Brent premium of $3.51). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$94.79
4.57
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$91.28
7.8
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.51
Brent premium of $3.51
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread widened by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, transitioning into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, reduced selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively stable m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers significantly increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The following are the specific growth outlooks:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026; remains at 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years
- India: Forecasted at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Stable at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Remains at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and adjustments in monetary policy continue to influence the economic landscape.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y), with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD projected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD increasing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Additionally, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Specific observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses driven by heavy crude supplies impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads
- Rotterdam: All key product margins fell, with gasoline experiencing the most significant decline
- Singapore: Declines attributed to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates began the year strongly, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64% y-o-y
- Suezmax rates increased due to weather disruptions and demand from European refiners, rising by 12% m-o-m
- Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates rising by 10% m-o-m
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route increased by 17% m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average. US crude exports rose by nearly 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to 4.2 mb/d. Product exports decreased to 7.0 mb/d. Notable trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined m-o-m, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan
- Japan: Crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India: Crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicates that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, reflecting an increase of 0.6 mb/d from 2025. The forecast for 2027 is unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The analysis indicates a significant gap between world demand and non-DoC supply, necessitating a robust DoC requirement to maintain market balance. Strategic production decisions will be crucial in addressing this gap as we move into 2026 and beyond.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-07
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: 6,887
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-07
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,037,857 contracts (+6,887)
Managed Money Net Position: 78,700 contracts (3.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +5,353 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,113 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -523,579 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
99
Last Updated:
2026-04-15 23:53:03
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (2 articles)
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- South Korea Crude Imports Set to Fall in April, May Amid Mideast Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (5 articles)
- Oil Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Soon, UBS Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Lower on Prospects of Middle East Resolution — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Shows People Expect Short Term Conflict in Iran — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Threat to Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Likely Further Escalates Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.94
Daily:
-0.18 (-0.19%)
Weekly:
-0.88 (-0.89%)
US_10Y
4.28
Daily:
0.03 (0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.26%)
SP500
7022.95
Daily:
55.57 (0.8%)
Weekly:
198.29 (2.91%)
VIX
18.17
Daily:
-0.19 (-1.03%)
Weekly:
-1.32 (-6.77%)
GOLD
4842.7
Daily:
17.7 (0.37%)
Weekly:
50.5 (1.05%)
COPPER
6.11
Daily:
0.04 (0.7%)
Weekly:
0.36 (6.35%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$91.65
Closest Support:
$89.09
2.79% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$96.26
5.03% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.7
0.236
$73.04
0.382
$81.92
0.5
$89.09
Support
0.618
$96.26
Resistance
0.786
$106.47
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$136.01
1.618
$157.04
2.0
$180.26
2.618
$217.82
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$91.29
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-15 23:53:06
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.58%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | $91.82 | $79.43 | $104.2 |
| 2026-04-17 | $91.91 | $79.52 | $104.29 |
| 2026-04-18 | $91.83 | $79.45 | $104.21 |
| 2026-04-19 | $91.15 | $78.77 | $103.54 |
| 2026-04-20 | $91.21 | $78.83 | $103.59 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.58% for the next trading day (2026-04-16), reaching $91.82.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-16 and 2026-04-20.
- The average confidence interval width is ~27.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market shows bullish sentiment, with significant price movements: the $62.31 average for the OPEC Reference Basket and a $64.73 average for ICE Brent. The $4.47 Brent-WTI spread indicates a strong market dynamic, suggesting potential short-term opportunities. Traders should monitor the support levels around the $60 mark for WTI and consider Fibonacci retracement levels for potential price reversals. The increase in managed money net positions (+5,353 contracts) reflects a strengthening bullish trend, but caution is advised due to the ongoing geopolitical risks and supply uncertainties.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, producers should align their production planning to meet this demand. The balance between supply and demand remains tight, which can support higher prices. However, with 2,845 mb of OECD commercial oil inventories, producers must be cautious of overproduction that could lead to inventory build-up. Implementing effective hedging strategies will be crucial to mitigate price volatility risks stemming from fluctuating market sentiments and geopolitical tensions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile, currently averaging $60.26 and $64.73, respectively. With geopolitical tensions impacting supply reliability, particularly in the Middle East, procurement strategies should account for hedging against price spikes. The recent decline in refining margins suggests that refineries may pass on costs to consumers, making it essential to monitor supply reliability risks as well as inventory levels to ensure stable operations.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is characterized by a bullish outlook driven by strong demand forecasts and tightening supply dynamics. Key drivers include an increase in managed money positions, rising Brent-WTI spreads, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting supply chains. Analysts should focus on the implications of the balance between supply and demand, with OPEC's production cuts and the steady growth of non-DoC liquids production. Overall, the market sentiment is optimistic, but close attention to external factors is necessary for potential outlook shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.