Different day = different narrative. Monday was leading to escalation with no peace coming out of the weekend talks. Tuesday led to a big BIG drop as headlines came out about a second round of negotiations which led traders to navigate that we could be looking at a diplomatic solution - but also pricing in an expectation that the physical conditions will be far from normal. Big questions remain which include will the Strait of Hormuz be tolled and managed by Iran/Oman from here forward? If so - this changes a big portion of geopolitics. $90.82 is the bull line in the sand…with $101.98 having unfinished business. Diplomacy could drop us to 81.29 again but tension brings us back over $100. As we close out the week - more bearishness coming out of the Petroleum Status Report but crude is hanging in there - one interesting note is that Brent has taken the lead again over WTI.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-16 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has experienced a rollercoaster ride this week, driven by fluctuating geopolitical narratives. Following hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, prices dipped as negotiations progressed. However, concerns about the Strait of Hormuz and potential disruptions keep traders on edge. Key resistance levels to watch are $90.82 and $95.49, with $101.98 looming as unfinished business. As we close the week, a bearish sentiment emerges from the Petroleum Status Report, but Brent is regaining strength over WTI. Keep an eye on diplomacy and market reactions; they could shape the next moves!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$94.93
$0.14
WTI:
$91.29
$0.01
Spread:
$3.64
(Brent premium of $3.64)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
78,700
Weekly Change:
5,353
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$89.89
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $98.42
MA(20): $98.05
Current Price is 89.89, 9 day MA 98.42, 20 day MA 98.05
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 2.3225
Signal: 4.8543
Days since crossover: 7
MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.19
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.19 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,053
Avg (20d): 352,881
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 9.55
%D: 13.04
Stochastic %K: 9.55, %D: 13.04. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 40.29
+DI: 24.45
-DI: 22.61
ADX: 40.29 (+DI: 24.45, -DI: 22.61). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -90.45
Williams %R: -90.45 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.43
Middle: 98.05
Lower: 83.68
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.43, Middle: 98.05, Lower: 83.68
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13596.0 | 13458.0 | 12954.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5291.0 | 6324.0 | 6189.0 | 6252.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5225.0 | 4149.0 | 3244.0 | 4799.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16042.0 | 16250.0 | 15627.0 | 15773.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 66.0 | 2175.0 | 2945.0 | 1453.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 463804.0 | 464717.0 | 442345.0 | 456273.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1675125.0 | 1688247.0 | 1607410.0 | 1603411.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 232944.0 | 239272.0 | 235977.0 | 228313.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 111559.0 | 114681.0 | 111082.0 | 112096.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $94.93, change $+0.14. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $91.29, change $+0.01. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.64 (Brent premium of $3.64). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$94.93
0.14
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$91.29
0.01
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.64
Brent premium of $3.64
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Specific growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Stable at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: Steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: Unchanged at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts continue to play significant roles in shaping these forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at +1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Expected to grow by about +1.2 mb/d
In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about +1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by +0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about +1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about +0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Additionally:
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by +0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, averaging about 8.8 mb/d.
- DoC crude production decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d in January.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC spot freight rates increased significantly, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching the highest levels in a decade, up by +64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose by +12%, m-o-m, amid weather disruptions.
- Aframax rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by +10%, m-o-m.
- Clean tanker market rates showed a strong performance, particularly in East of Suez, with rates up by +17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average. Key trade flow developments include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, with increased flows to Europe and Africa.
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data shows that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by +6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by -2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by +8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, +75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by +0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about +0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the increasing demand, emphasizing the strategic outlook for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-07
Managed Money
78,700
Change: +5,353
3.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,113
Change: +5,385
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-523,579
Change: +9,240
-25.7% of OI
Open Interest
2,037,857
Change: 6,887
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-07
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,037,857 contracts (+6,887)
Managed Money Net Position: 78,700 contracts (3.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +5,353 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,113 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -523,579 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
116
Last Updated:
2026-04-16 23:52:57
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (8 articles)
- Middle East Cease-Fire Remains Fragile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Flat As Market Awaits Conflict Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Cease-Fire Holds Amid Hopes for Peace Deal — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Soon, UBS Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Lower on Prospects of Middle East Resolution — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil Shows People Expect Short Term Conflict in Iran — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- OPEC Holds 2026 Oil Demand Outlook Despite Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Threat to Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Likely Further Escalates Mideast Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.24
Daily:
0.18 (0.18%)
Weekly:
-0.41 (-0.42%)
US_10Y
4.31
Daily:
0.03 (0.63%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.19%)
SP500
7041.28
Daily:
18.33 (0.26%)
Weekly:
224.39 (3.29%)
VIX
17.94
Daily:
-0.23 (-1.27%)
Weekly:
-1.29 (-6.71%)
GOLD
4814.5
Daily:
14.5 (0.3%)
Weekly:
52.6 (1.1%)
COPPER
6.04
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.46%)
Weekly:
0.17 (2.96%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$89.89
Closest Support:
$89.22
0.75% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$96.36
7.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.96
0.236
$73.24
0.382
$82.08
0.5
$89.22
Support
0.618
$96.36
Resistance
0.786
$106.53
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.94
1.618
$156.88
2.0
$180.0
2.618
$217.4
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$94.69
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-16 23:52:59
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $94.59 | $82.68 | $106.51 |
| 2026-04-18 | $94.39 | $82.48 | $106.3 |
| 2026-04-19 | $93.65 | $81.74 | $105.56 |
| 2026-04-20 | $93.82 | $81.9 | $105.73 |
| 2026-04-21 | $94.15 | $82.24 | $106.06 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-04-17), reaching $94.59.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~25.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest bearish sentiment prevailing, with a sentiment score of -0.600. The Brent-WTI spread at $3.64 indicates ongoing differences in supply/demand dynamics, which may present opportunities for arbitrage. The Fibonacci retracement levels could provide critical support around $60.00 for WTI, while resistance may be observed at $64.73 for Brent. Traders should watch for volatility in the short term, especially given the mixed signals from speculative positioning, where managed money increased their net long positions by +5,353 contracts. This divergence could signal potential price corrections.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With crude oil production from DoC countries declining by 439 tb/d, producers should consider adjusting production planning and hedging strategies accordingly. The current inventory levels indicate a balance with OECD crude stocks at 1,363 mb, which is above the five-year average. This could impact market prices negatively, suggesting a cautious approach to hedging and production increases. The bullish sentiment from managed money positions may offer a temporary upside, but producers should remain vigilant of geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The current bearish sentiment in the market, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties, poses a risk to supply reliability. With crude imports into OECD Europe declining and product exports from the US showing mixed trends, it is advisable to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price spikes. Additionally, refining margins have declined, which may impact the pricing of refined products in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.600. Key driving factors include a stable global economic growth forecast of 3.1% for 2026 and consistent oil demand growth at 1.4 mb/d. However, supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions remain significant risks. Analysts should focus on the implications of the balance between supply and demand, particularly in relation to the Brent-WTI spread and the positioning of managed money traders, which could indicate potential market shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.