WTI at $82 has now blown through Goldman's $85 structural floor and is approaching the pre-conflict January lows (~$78 WTI). The market is pricing an accelerated ceasefire resolution — Hormuz reopening faster than the EIA's "late 2026" baseline — with the 9.1M bpd shut-in peak now expected to reverse quicker. The Brent-WTI spread at $8 has re-normalized from the near-parity chaos of April, which tells you seaborne logistics are improving. Bearish fundamentals stacking: 7 weeks of crude builds totaling 31M+ barrels, refinery utilization at 89.6%, IEA cutting demand outlook, OPEC+ adding 206K bpd in May into a softening market, and the full SPR overhang (172M US + 400M IEA barrels) sitting in the system. The -9.13M draw from week ending Apr 10 was a one-week blip — doesn't change the structural inventory trend. Watch $78: that's the Jan floor where negotiations-in-Oman were last pricing peace. A clean break below $78 opens the Goldman unwind case at $71.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-17 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices have tumbled below Goldman’s $85 floor, now flirting with January’s lows around $78 WTI. The market anticipates a swift ceasefire resolution, leading to quicker recovery from 9.1M bpd shut-ins. Bearish fundamentals dominate: seven weeks of crude builds totaling over 31M barrels, refinery utilization at 89.6%, and an IEA demand downgrade. With OPEC+ increasing output amid a softening market and significant SPR stocks lingering, a break below $78 could trigger further declines, possibly down to $71.
---
**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- WTI currently at $82, nearing January lows of $78.
- 31M+ barrels built over
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$99.39
$4.46
WTI:
$94.69
$3.4
Spread:
$4.7
(Brent premium of $4.70)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,368
Weekly Change:
19,668
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$84.0
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $95.79
MA(20): $97.69
Current Price is 84.0, 9 day MA 95.79, 20 day MA 97.69
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.4635
Signal: 4.2374
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.97
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.97 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 453,070
Avg (20d): 378,713
Ratio: 1.2
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 13.01
%D: 17.44
Stochastic %K: 13.01, %D: 17.44. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 38.52
+DI: 22.37
-DI: 28.51
ADX: 38.52 (+DI: 22.37, -DI: 28.51). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -86.99
Williams %R: -86.99 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.98
Middle: 97.69
Lower: 82.4
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.98, Middle: 97.69, Lower: 82.4
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13596.0 | 13458.0 | 12954.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5291.0 | 6324.0 | 6189.0 | 6252.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5225.0 | 4149.0 | 3244.0 | 4799.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16042.0 | 16250.0 | 15627.0 | 15773.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 66.0 | 2175.0 | 2945.0 | 1453.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 463804.0 | 464717.0 | 442345.0 | 456273.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1675125.0 | 1688247.0 | 1607410.0 | 1603411.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 232944.0 | 239272.0 | 235977.0 | 228313.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 111559.0 | 114681.0 | 111082.0 | 112096.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $99.39, change $+4.46. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $94.69, change $+3.4. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.7 (Brent premium of $4.70). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$99.39
4.46
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$94.69
3.4
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.7
Brent premium of $4.70
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The economic growth outlooks for key regions are as follows:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Expected increase of 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries indicates a growth of 0.1 mb/d in both years.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop
- Singapore: Decline attributed to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates started strong in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key trends include:
- VLCC rates surged, with Middle East-to-East route rates up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, particularly on the USGC-to-Europe route
- Aframax rates also performed well, reaching a 10-year high
- Clean tanker market rates increased, particularly in the East of Suez region
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. Key regional trade patterns include:
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined, but product exports increased
- Japan: Crude imports surged, reaching the highest levels since March 2020
- China: Crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d
- India: Crude imports remained elevated, while product imports declined
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Key stock movements include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, the demand is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
This analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement reflects the need for sustained production levels to meet the anticipated demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-14
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: 56,635
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-14
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,094,492 contracts (+56,635)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,368 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +19,668 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,996 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -540,931 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
118
Last Updated:
2026-04-17 23:52:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil falls on prospects for talks to end Iran war and revive supply Reuters
- Oil Surges as Iran Deal Delays Fuel Supply Fears Trading Economics
- Oil prices fall as hopes for US-Iran deal outweigh supply disruption concerns Reuters
- BP Plc Expects Q1 Upstream Production To Be Broadly Flat Sequentially dpa-AFX
Geopolitical (9 articles)
- Canadian Dollar's Response to Conflict-Triggered Oil-Price Jump to Remain Subdued — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks back to record-setting ways on Middle East truce hopes Reuters
- Oil Prices Possibly Past Peak Despite Continuing Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Boosts Performance of G-10 Carry Trades — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Cease-Fire Remains Fragile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Flat As Market Awaits Conflict Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Cease-Fire Holds Amid Hopes for Peace Deal — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Soon, UBS Says — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Lower on Prospects of Middle East Resolution — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.23
Daily:
0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly:
-0.14 (-0.15%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.46%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.19%)
SP500
7126.06
Daily:
84.78 (1.2%)
Weekly:
239.82 (3.48%)
VIX
17.48
Daily:
-0.46 (-2.56%)
Weekly:
-1.64 (-8.58%)
GOLD
4849.4
Daily:
64.0 (1.34%)
Weekly:
107.0 (2.26%)
COPPER
6.08
Daily:
0.01 (0.25%)
Weekly:
0.11 (1.77%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$84.0
Closest Support:
$82.08
2.29% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$89.22
6.21% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.96
0.236
$73.24
0.382
$82.08
Support
0.5
$89.22
Resistance
0.618
$96.36
0.786
$106.53
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.94
1.618
$156.88
2.0
$180.0
2.618
$217.4
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$94.69
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-17 23:52:46
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | $94.59 | $82.68 | $106.51 |
| 2026-04-18 | $94.39 | $82.48 | $106.3 |
| 2026-04-19 | $93.65 | $81.74 | $105.57 |
| 2026-04-20 | $93.82 | $81.91 | $105.73 |
| 2026-04-21 | $94.15 | $82.24 | $106.06 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2026-04-17), reaching $94.59.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-21.
- The average confidence interval width is ~25.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements show a bullish sentiment in the market, particularly with the Brent and WTI contracts both experiencing increases month-on-month. The Brent-WTI spread has risen to 4.47, indicating a divergence in supply/demand dynamics that could present short-term trading opportunities.
Given the current market conditions, traders should be aware of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the Iran situation which has shown mixed sentiment in recent headlines. Additionally, the speculative positioning data indicates that managed money traders are increasing their net long positions, suggesting a strengthening bullish trend.
Key support levels may be established around the 60.00 mark for WTI, while Fibonacci retracement levels could provide insights into potential resistance points as prices continue to fluctuate.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current balance of supply and demand indicates a steady demand for crude oil, particularly from DoC countries, which remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d for 2026. This stability may allow producers to optimize production planning and hedging strategies effectively.
However, the increase in OECD commercial oil inventories suggests that producers should monitor inventory levels closely as they could impact pricing and operational decisions. The decline in refining margins due to seasonal demand pressures may also necessitate adjustments in operational strategies to maintain profitability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With the bearish sentiment reflected in recent news articles and a sentiment score of -0.600, consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly in WTI and Brent prices. The geopolitical risks surrounding supply disruptions may lead to supply reliability risks that could affect procurement strategies.
Additionally, the ongoing changes in product imports and exports, especially from regions like China and India, indicate that consumers may need to adapt their procurement strategies to ensure stable supply chains amidst evolving market conditions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. While demand growth remains steady at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating inventories are creating a complex environment.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the balance of supply and demand with non-DoC production growth and the impact of refining margins, which have seen a decline. The positioning data from CFTC indicates that while managed money is bullish, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, suggesting potential for shifts in outlook as new data emerges.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.