WTI at $82 has now blown through Goldman's $85 structural floor and is approaching the pre-conflict January lows (~$78 WTI). The market is pricing an accelerated ceasefire resolution — Hormuz reopening faster than the EIA's "late 2026" baseline — with the 9.1M bpd shut-in peak now expected to reverse quicker. The Brent-WTI spread at $8 has re-normalized from the near-parity chaos of April, which tells you seaborne logistics are improving. Bearish fundamentals stacking: 7 weeks of crude builds totaling 31M+ barrels, refinery utilization at 89.6%, IEA cutting demand outlook, OPEC+ adding 206K bpd in May into a softening market, and the full SPR overhang (172M US + 400M IEA barrels) sitting in the system. The -9.13M draw from week ending Apr 10 was a one-week blip — doesn't change the structural inventory trend. Watch $78: that's the Jan floor where negotiations-in-Oman were last pricing peace. A clean break below $78 opens the Goldman unwind case at $71.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-18 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices have tumbled as WTI dips to $82, breaching Goldman's $85 floor and nearing January lows of ~$78. This drop reflects market optimism for a swift ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, causing bearish trends to stack up: seven consecutive weeks of inventory builds totaling over 31M barrels, IEA's demand cuts, and OPEC+ adding supply into a softening market. With fundamentals pointing toward further declines, $78 is a critical watchpoint—breaking below may trigger further selling pressure, potentially heading to $71.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$90.38
$9.01
WTI:
$83.85
$10.84
Spread:
$6.53
(Brent premium of $6.53)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,368
Weekly Change:
19,668
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$83.85
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $95.78
MA(20): $97.68
Current Price is 83.85, 9 day MA 95.78, 20 day MA 97.68
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.4516
Signal: 4.235
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 41.87
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 41.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 194,354
Avg (20d): 365,777
Ratio: 0.53
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 8.88
%D: 16.07
Stochastic %K: 8.88, %D: 16.07. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 38.36
+DI: 22.66
-DI: 27.58
ADX: 38.36 (+DI: 22.66, -DI: 27.58). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -91.12
Williams %R: -91.12 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 113.0
Middle: 97.68
Lower: 82.36
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 113.0, Middle: 97.68, Lower: 82.36
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13596.0 | 13458.0 | 12954.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5291.0 | 6324.0 | 6189.0 | 6252.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5225.0 | 4149.0 | 3244.0 | 4799.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16042.0 | 16250.0 | 15627.0 | 15773.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 66.0 | 2175.0 | 2945.0 | 1453.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 463804.0 | 464717.0 | 442345.0 | 456273.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1675125.0 | 1688247.0 | 1607410.0 | 1603411.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 232944.0 | 239272.0 | 235977.0 | 228313.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 111559.0 | 114681.0 | 111082.0 | 112096.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $90.38, change $-9.01. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $83.85, change $-10.84. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.53 (Brent premium of $6.53). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$90.38
9.01
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$83.85
10.84
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.53
Brent premium of $6.53
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, averaging $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
Global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's economic growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth forecasts hold at 0.9% for both years, while China's remains at 4.5%. India is expected to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's economic growth is projected at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's forecasts are at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027. Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven primarily by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is expected to maintain the same growth rate. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decrease. Singapore's decline was attributed to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached a decade-high for the month, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, with increased flows to Europe and Africa. In Japan, crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, while total product stocks were at 1,481 mb. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, remaining above the five-year average.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the years 2026 and 2027:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-14
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: 56,635
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-14
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,094,492 contracts (+56,635)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,368 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +19,668 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,996 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -540,931 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
91
Last Updated:
2026-04-18 23:52:54
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- Canadian Dollar's Response to Conflict-Triggered Oil-Price Jump to Remain Subdued — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Stocks back to record-setting ways on Middle East truce hopes Reuters
- Oil Prices Possibly Past Peak Despite Continuing Middle East Tensions — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Iran Conflict Boosts Performance of G-10 Carry Trades — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Cease-Fire Remains Fragile — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Settles Flat As Market Awaits Conflict Developments — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Middle East Cease-Fire Holds Amid Hopes for Peace Deal — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.1
Daily:
-0.12 (-0.12%)
Weekly:
-0.27 (-0.27%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
-0.06 (-1.46%)
Weekly:
-0.05 (-1.19%)
SP500
7126.06
Daily:
84.78 (1.2%)
Weekly:
239.82 (3.48%)
VIX
17.48
Daily:
-0.46 (-2.56%)
Weekly:
-1.64 (-8.58%)
GOLD
4857.6
Daily:
72.2 (1.51%)
Weekly:
115.2 (2.43%)
COPPER
6.1
Daily:
0.04 (0.61%)
Weekly:
0.13 (2.13%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$83.85
Closest Support:
$82.08
2.11% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$89.22
6.4% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$58.96
0.236
$73.24
0.382
$82.08
Support
0.5
$89.22
Resistance
0.618
$96.36
0.786
$106.53
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.94
1.618
$156.88
2.0
$180.0
2.618
$217.4
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$83.85
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-18 23:52:56
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.78%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | $84.51 | $72.03 | $96.98 |
| 2026-04-19 | $84.33 | $71.86 | $96.81 |
| 2026-04-20 | $84.12 | $71.64 | $96.59 |
| 2026-04-21 | $84.26 | $71.79 | $96.73 |
| 2026-04-22 | $83.2 | $70.73 | $95.67 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.78% for the next trading day (2026-04-18), reaching $84.51.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.6% between 2026-04-18 and 2026-04-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~29.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current market sentiment is bearish, with a sentiment score of -0.600. This suggests caution in the short term as traders navigate potential price fluctuations. The Brent-WTI spread has increased to $6.53, indicating a stronger demand for Brent relative to WTI, potentially due to geopolitical factors affecting supply. Key resistance levels to watch for WTI are around $83.85, while support may be found near $60.26. Traders should remain vigilant for volatility driven by news sentiment and CFTC positioning, particularly the increase in managed money net positions, which could indicate a bullish reversal if trends continue.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current inventory levels show a rise in OECD commercial stocks, which may impact pricing strategies. Producers should consider adjusting production levels in response to declining refining margins and a bearish market sentiment. The decrease of 439 tb/d in crude oil production from DoC countries indicates potential supply constraints that could support pricing in the medium term. Hedging strategies should be recalibrated to account for the current market dynamics and the potential for price volatility driven by geopolitical tensions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. With WTI and Brent prices at $60.26 and $64.73 respectively, procurement strategies may need adjustment to mitigate costs. The geopolitical landscape poses risks to supply reliability, especially with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Monitoring inventory levels, particularly the increased product stocks, will be crucial for planning procurement and hedging strategies to ensure stable supply amidst fluctuating demand.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and bullish positioning from managed money traders. Key drivers include steady global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026, countered by increased inventory levels and declining refining margins. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical developments and their potential to shift market dynamics, particularly in the context of the Brent-WTI spread and overall supply-demand balance.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.