After closing out last week around $82 (dropping from $95 on Thursday to $82 on Friday based on news of peace talks and the Strait of Hormuz opening). Turns out there was some misdirection on headlines - with the US announcing the Strait was open and keeping the blockade, while Iran said that was not true and over the weekend we learned that the Strait is in fact still closed. We started the week trying to get above $90.82 (key pivot point this week) - there is still a gap to close around $93 and I expect we will close that gap. As for price direction - I think there is no where to go but up (at least that’s where we should go fundamentally) - technically this has been so choppy that there is a case to drop to $70 and a case to go to $120 - right now the momentum is negative.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-20 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices experienced volatility, dropping from $95 to $82 last week due to conflicting headlines about the Strait of Hormuz. While peace talks teased potential supply increases, the reality is that the Strait remains closed. Currently, $90.82 is a key resistance level to watch, with a gap around $93 that traders expect to close. Despite mixed technical signals, fundamental factors suggest potential upward momentum. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, as they remain pivotal in shaping market direction.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$90.38
$9.01
WTI:
$83.85
$10.84
Spread:
$6.53
(Brent premium of $6.53)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,368
Weekly Change:
19,668
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$86.7
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $92.86
MA(20): $97.1
Current Price is 86.7, 9 day MA 92.86, 20 day MA 97.1
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.6801
Signal: 3.524
Days since crossover: 9
MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.58
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.58 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 14,233
Avg (20d): 339,510
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 16.56
%D: 16.88
Stochastic %K: 16.56, %D: 16.88. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
STRONG DOWNTREND
ADX: 36.32
+DI: 22.09
-DI: 26.89
ADX: 36.32 (+DI: 22.09, -DI: 26.89). Trend: strong downtrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -83.44
Williams %R: -83.44 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 113.14
Middle: 97.1
Lower: 81.06
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 113.14, Middle: 97.1, Lower: 81.06
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13596.0 | 13596.0 | 13458.0 | 12954.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5291.0 | 6324.0 | 6189.0 | 6252.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5225.0 | 4149.0 | 3244.0 | 4799.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16042.0 | 16250.0 | 15627.0 | 15773.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 66.0 | 2175.0 | 2945.0 | 1453.0 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 463804.0 | 464717.0 | 442345.0 | 456273.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1675125.0 | 1688247.0 | 1607410.0 | 1603411.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 232944.0 | 239272.0 | 235977.0 | 228313.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 111559.0 | 114681.0 | 111082.0 | 112096.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $90.38, change $-9.01. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $83.85, change $-10.84. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.53 (Brent premium of $6.53). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$90.38
9.01
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$83.85
10.84
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.53
Brent premium of $6.53
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
- Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
- The forward curves for major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation.
- Physical market fundamentals remained robust, supported by oil supply outages and easing selling pressure from speculators.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The following are the growth outlooks for key economies:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027.
- Eurozone: Maintains growth forecasts at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
- Japan: Growth forecasts steady at 0.9% for both years.
- China: Remains at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
- Brazil: Growth at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
- Russia: Forecasts at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d.
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with similar growth patterns observed in both OECD and non-OECD regions.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by:
- Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all trading hubs due to:
- Stronger feedstock prices.
- Seasonal demand-side pressures.
Specific regional impacts included:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from increased heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: Declines led by gasoline and fuel oil margins.
- Singapore: Declines driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, influenced by:
- Weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Unplanned outages and steady loading activity.
Rate movements included:
- VLCC spot rates increased significantly, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade high.
- Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, particularly on the USGC-to-Europe route.
- Aframax rates also saw strong performance, reaching a 10-year high for the month.
In the clean tanker market, rates were up by 17% m-o-m on the Middle East-to-East route.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. Key regional trade patterns included:
- OECD Europe: Decline in crude imports due to lower flows from Kazakhstan.
- Japan: Surge in crude imports to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China: Record high crude imports averaging 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India: Elevated crude imports at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight m-o-m decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, totaling 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, with a similar forecast of 43.6 mb/d for 2027. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, necessitating strategic production decisions to align with the forecasted demand. The outlook suggests a continued need for DoC crude to meet the growing global demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-14
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: 56,635
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-14
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,094,492 contracts (+56,635)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,368 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +19,668 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,996 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -540,931 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
71
Last Updated:
2026-04-20 23:53:07
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Conflict Settlement Could Depress Summer Crude Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.16
Daily:
0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.04%)
US_10Y
4.25
Daily:
0.0 (0.09%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
SP500
7109.14
Daily:
-16.92 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
141.76 (2.03%)
VIX
18.87
Daily:
1.39 (7.95%)
Weekly:
0.51 (2.78%)
GOLD
4812.2
Daily:
-45.4 (-0.93%)
Weekly:
-12.8 (-0.27%)
COPPER
6.01
Daily:
-0.09 (-1.56%)
Weekly:
-0.06 (-1.02%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$86.7
Closest Support:
$82.42
4.94% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$89.5
3.23% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$59.52
0.236
$73.67
0.382
$82.42
Support
0.5
$89.5
Resistance
0.618
$96.58
0.786
$106.65
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.79
1.618
$156.54
2.0
$179.44
2.618
$216.5
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$89.61
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-20 23:53:09
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.88%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | $88.82 | $76.87 | $100.77 |
| 2026-04-22 | $88.4 | $76.45 | $100.35 |
| 2026-04-23 | $88.93 | $76.98 | $100.88 |
| 2026-04-24 | $87.76 | $75.81 | $99.71 |
| 2026-04-25 | $88.44 | $76.49 | $100.39 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.88% for the next trading day (2026-04-21), reaching $88.82.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-21 and 2026-04-25.
- The average confidence interval width is ~27.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment from managed money traders indicates potential upward price momentum, especially as they increase their net long positions. The Brent-WTI spread at $6.53 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, suggesting opportunities for spread trading.
Key support levels may emerge around the $60 mark for WTI, while resistance could be encountered near $64.73 for Brent. Traders should remain vigilant for any price volatility driven by geopolitical tensions or significant shifts in inventory levels.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current balance of supply and demand indicates stable demand for DoC crude, projected at 43.0 mb/d for 2026. This suggests a favorable environment for production planning, but the risk of fluctuating inventory levels requires careful hedging strategies, especially as crude stocks are currently 44.1 mb above the five-year average.
With the bearish market sentiment reflected in recent news, producers should consider adjusting production rates to align with anticipated demand shifts and global economic forecasts.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with WTI prices averaging $60.26 and Brent at $64.73. The reliability of supply could be impacted by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand pressures, particularly as refining margins have declined.
It may be prudent to consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with rising crude prices, especially given the recent volatility in the tanker market and increased crude imports in key regions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish news sentiment and bullish positioning from speculators. The stable global economic growth forecasts suggest a resilient demand outlook, while the balance of supply and demand remains tight with increasing non-DoC production.
Analysts should closely monitor the evolving geopolitical landscape and its implications on supply chain dynamics, as well as refining margins which are under pressure. The overall outlook may shift based on how these factors interplay with market sentiment and positioning trends.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.