Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.

• Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
• The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation.
• Physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts, with oil supply outages and easing selling pressure from speculators.
• Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

• US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan’s growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both years.
• China’s growth forecasts remain at 4.5% for both years.
• India’s growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
• Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• OECD demand is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• Key growth drivers include Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.
• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 and 2027.
• DoC crude production decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures.

• In the US Gulf Coast, losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
• In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline.
• Singapore experienced a decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.

• VLCC spot freight rates rose significantly, reaching the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y.
• Suezmax rates increased amid weather disruptions, with a 12% m-o-m rise on the USGC-to-Europe route.
• Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with a 10% m-o-m increase, reaching a 10-year high.
• In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.

• US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
• In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020.
• China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
• India’s crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline, m-o-m.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.

• OECD crude oil commercial stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD total product stocks stood at 1,481 mb, which was 14.4 mb higher, y-o-y.
• Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025.

The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the forecast period:

The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with a requirement of 43.0 mb/d in 2026 against a non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, indicating a potential surplus situation. This balance will influence strategic production decisions moving forward.