After closing out last week around $82 (dropping from $95 on Thursday to $82 on Friday based on news of peace talks and the Strait of Hormuz opening). Turns out there was some misdirection on headlines - with the US announcing the Strait was open and keeping the blockade, while Iran said that was not true and over the weekend we learned that the Strait is in fact still closed. We started the week trying to get above $90.82 (key pivot point this week) - there is still a gap to close around $93 and I expect we will close that gap. As for price direction - I think there is no where to go but up (at least that’s where we should go fundamentally) - technically this has been so choppy that there is a case to drop to $70 and a case to go to $120 - right now the momentum is negative. Crude is headed up as chances for peace quickly are simply not there - $100 is on the horizon
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-22 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil has seen a rollercoaster week, dropping from $95 to $82, primarily due to mixed reports on the Strait of Hormuz's status. As it stands, the Strait remains closed, contradicting initial hopeful headlines. Currently, prices are hovering around $82 with a critical pivot point at $90.82. While technicals point to volatility, fundamentals suggest a bullish sentiment with potential for a rally towards $100. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments, as they could sway prices dramatically in either direction.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$98.48
$3.0
WTI:
$92.13
$2.52
Spread:
$6.35
(Brent premium of $6.35)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,368
Weekly Change:
19,668
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$94.64
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $92.57
MA(20): $97.56
Current Price is 94.64, 9 day MA 92.57, 20 day MA 97.56
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.691
Signal: 2.5321
Days since crossover: 11
MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.38
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.38 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 48,407
Avg (20d): 298,434
Ratio: 0.16
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 37.98
%D: 31.2
Stochastic %K: 37.98, %D: 31.2. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 31.67
+DI: 24.21
-DI: 23.38
ADX: 31.67 (+DI: 24.21, -DI: 23.38). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -62.02
Williams %R: -62.02 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 112.78
Middle: 97.56
Lower: 82.34
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 112.78, Middle: 97.56, Lower: 82.34
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13585.0 | 13596.0 | 13462.0 | 12920.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6078.0 | 5291.0 | 6001.0 | 6154.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4798.0 | 5225.0 | 5100.0 | 4515.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 15987.0 | 16042.0 | 15564.0 | 15864.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 1280.0 | 66.0 | 901.0 | 1638.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 465729.0 | 463804.0 | 442860.0 | 452547.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1669195.0 | 1675125.0 | 1605634.0 | 1601859.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 228374.0 | 232944.0 | 234019.0 | 225807.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 108132.0 | 111559.0 | 109231.0 | 111657.67 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $98.48, change $+3.0. WTI crude (MAY 26) settled at $92.13, change $+2.52. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.35 (Brent premium of $6.35). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$98.48
3.0
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$92.13
2.52
(MAY 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.35
Brent premium of $6.35
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract saw an increase of $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Key forecasts include:
- US: 2.2% growth in 2026, 2.0% in 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% growth for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% growth for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% growth for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% growth in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% growth in 2026, 2.2% in 2027
- Russia: 1.3% growth in 2026, 1.5% in 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. Breakdown of demand growth includes:
- OECD: +0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: +1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Key insights include:
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, reaching about 8.8 mb/d in 2026.
- DoC crude production decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d in January.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to:
- Stronger feedstock prices
- Seasonal demand-side pressures
Notable trends include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, particularly gasoline.
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, influenced by:
- Weather disruptions
- Geopolitical uncertainties
- Unplanned outages
Specific rate movements include:
- VLCC rates up by 64%, y-o-y, on the Middle East-to-East route.
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, on the USGC-to-Europe route.
- Aframax rates reached a 10-year high, up by 10%, m-o-m.
Clean tanker rates also showed strong performance, particularly in the East of Suez region.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, aligning with the five-year average. Key trade patterns include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, with a forecast of 43.6 mb/d in 2027. An analysis of the supply-demand balance reveals:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a requirement for DoC crude to meet the growing demand. This strategic outlook will inform production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-14
Managed Money
98,368
Change: +19,668
4.7% of OI
Producer/Merchant
293,996
Change: +883
14.0% of OI
Swap Dealers
-540,931
Change: -17,352
-25.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,094,492
Change: 56,635
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-14
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,094,492 contracts (+56,635)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,368 contracts (4.7% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +19,668 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 293,996 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -540,931 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
90
Last Updated:
2026-04-22 23:53:03
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
- Oil Inventory Rebuild to Support Prices for Years — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Hassett: Supply Constraints to Ease, Oil Seen Lower in Long Run — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
- Philippines Consumption Likely Weighed by Higher Oil Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- U.K. Inflation Data Likely to Show Effects of Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Market Stabilizing Despite Volatility in Middle East — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Crude Oil Prices Jump as Middle East Tensions Escalate Barchart
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.69
Daily:
0.28 (0.28%)
Weekly:
0.47 (0.48%)
US_10Y
4.29
Daily:
0.0 (0.05%)
Weekly:
-0.02 (-0.35%)
SP500
7137.9
Daily:
73.89 (1.05%)
Weekly:
96.62 (1.37%)
VIX
18.92
Daily:
-0.58 (-2.97%)
Weekly:
0.98 (5.46%)
GOLD
4721.2
Daily:
22.8 (0.49%)
Weekly:
-64.2 (-1.34%)
COPPER
6.03
Daily:
0.03 (0.53%)
Weekly:
-0.03 (-0.54%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$94.64
Closest Support:
$89.81
5.1% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$96.81
2.29% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$60.14
0.236
$74.14
0.382
$82.81
0.5
$89.81
Support
0.618
$96.81
Resistance
0.786
$106.78
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.62
1.618
$156.15
2.0
$178.82
2.618
$215.49
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$92.13
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-22 23:53:06
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.93%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | $91.28 | $79.37 | $103.18 |
| 2026-04-23 | $91.65 | $79.74 | $103.56 |
| 2026-04-24 | $90.74 | $78.84 | $102.65 |
| 2026-04-25 | $91.31 | $79.41 | $103.22 |
| 2026-04-26 | $91.56 | $79.65 | $103.47 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.93% for the next trading day (2026-04-22), reaching $91.28.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-04-22 and 2026-04-26.
- The average confidence interval width is ~26.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment, with the Brent-WTI spread at $6.35, indicating a strong demand for Brent relative to WTI. The support levels for WTI may be observed around $60.00, while resistance is likely near $64.00. The increase in managed money net positions to 98,368 contracts points to potential upward price momentum. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments, as ongoing tensions could introduce volatility in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current inventory levels, with OECD crude stocks at 1,363 mb, suggest a balanced market but with a slight upward pressure on prices. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations, especially with the bullish sentiment in the market. The forecast for non-DoC liquids production growth indicates stable supply conditions, allowing for strategic planning in production schedules.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, particularly with WTI prices hovering around $60.26 and Brent at $64.73. The geopolitical landscape introduces supply reliability risks, necessitating proactive procurement strategies. Additionally, with crude imports remaining stable, the market outlook suggests that consumers might benefit from locking in prices now to avoid future volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by strong demand forecasts and tightening supply dynamics. Key factors include the balance of supply and demand, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. Analysts should closely monitor technical indicators, particularly the strengthening backwardation in the forward curves, as well as geopolitical developments that may shift market sentiment and outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.