WTI just printed a $34.57 year-over-year gain and the market is acting surprised — it shouldn't be. Commercial crude inventories drew 6.2 million barrels in a single week and are now sitting at just 1% above the five-year average, down from 3% the prior week. One or two more prints like that and we're below average heading into summer demand season, with distillates already 11% in the hole at 103.6 million barrels and diesel demand running 4.8% above last year. Total products supplied came in at 20.56 million barrels per day — up 4.6% year-over-year — which means this isn't a geopolitical spike sitting on top of weak demand, it's a geopolitical spike sitting on top of genuine consumption growth. WTI touched $108 intraweek and pulled back to $105 Thursday morning, which is exactly what a market looks like when it's consolidating at resistance rather than rolling over. The $105.15 level is the line — hold it and $108.74 gets retested, lose it and $101.98 is the next stop. The one risk nobody has priced in: the SPR sitting at 397.9 million barrels with retail gasoline at $4.12 and a $4.50 political trigger historically associated with emergency releases. That's $0.38 away. Bulls are not hedged for it.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-04-30 23:55
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have surged, with WTI up $34.57 year-over-year, driven by a significant 6.2 million barrel draw in commercial inventories, now just 1% above the five-year average. Demand remains strong, evidenced by a 4.6% year-over-year increase in total products supplied. Despite recent price fluctuations, with WTI touching $108 before retreating to $105, the market consolidates at resistance. Watch for potential risks tied to the SPR levels and rising retail gasoline prices, as bulls aren't hedged for a possible emergency release.
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**Key Developments & Statistics:**
- WTI year-over-year gain: $34.57.
- Commercial inventories: 6.2 million barrel
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$118.03
$6.77
WTI:
$106.88
$6.95
Spread:
$11.15
(Brent premium of $11.15)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
99,887
Weekly Change:
1,519
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$105.58
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $97.08
MA(20): $97.98
Current Price is 105.58, 9 day MA 97.08, 20 day MA 97.98
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 2.5364
Signal: 1.8151
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 60.13
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 60.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 11,148
Avg (20d): 278,934
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERBOUGHT
%K: 89.23
%D: 86.79
Stochastic %K: 89.23, %D: 86.79. Signal: overbought
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.59
+DI: 28.81
-DI: 17.15
ADX: 25.59 (+DI: 28.81, -DI: 17.15). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
OVERBOUGHT
Value: -10.77
Williams %R: -10.77 (overbought)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 113.62
Middle: 97.98
Lower: 82.35
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 113.62, Middle: 97.98, Lower: 82.35
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13586.0 | 13585.0 | 13460.0 | 12955.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5750.0 | 6078.0 | 5589.0 | 6222.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6438.0 | 4798.0 | 3549.0 | 4258.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16071.0 | 15987.0 | 15889.0 | 15818.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | -688.0 | 1280.0 | 2040.0 | 1963.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 459495.0 | 465729.0 | 443104.0 | 453643.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1645112.0 | 1669195.0 | 1605365.0 | 1605910.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 222299.0 | 228374.0 | 229543.0 | 225168.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 103638.0 | 108132.0 | 106878.0 | 111329.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $118.03, change $+6.77. WTI crude (JUN 26) settled at $106.88, change $+6.95. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $11.15 (Brent premium of $11.15). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$118.03
6.77
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$106.88
6.95
(JUN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$11.15
Brent premium of $11.15
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract saw a rise of $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, remaining at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecast stands at 1.2% for both years. Japan's forecast remains at 0.9%, while China's is steady at 4.5%. India's growth is projected at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories across major economies.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
Key demand drivers include economic growth, particularly in non-OECD regions, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and shifts in energy policies.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both years.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d, indicating a tightening market.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore experienced a similar trend, driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching its highest level in a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates also rose due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates reached a 10-year high. Clean tanker rates showed strong performance, particularly East of Suez, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa. In Japan, crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, while China's crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline.
Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, while imports in India and Japan showed mixed trends, reflecting regional demand dynamics.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y, but 64.2 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The forecast for 2027 also remains unchanged at 43.6 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, with a requirement for DoC crude to meet the forecasted demand. This strategic outlook suggests that production decisions will be crucial in balancing the market effectively.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-21
Managed Money
99,887
Change: +1,519
5.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
314,305
Change: +20,309
15.8% of OI
Swap Dealers
-541,016
Change: -85
-27.3% of OI
Open Interest
1,984,747
Change: -109,745
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-21
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,984,747 contracts (-109,745)
Managed Money Net Position: 99,887 contracts (5.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +1,519 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 314,305 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -541,016 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
105
Last Updated:
2026-04-30 23:53:36
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (5 articles)
- Oil Gains Further as Prolonged U.S.-Iran Impasse Deepens Supply Shock — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- TotalEnergies Q1 Profit Climbs, Despite Stable Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Production Slumps Despite Higher Prices — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- BP Q1 RC Profit Rises On Sales Growth; Warns On FY26 Upstream Production dpa-AFX
- Oil Above $100 Signals Supply Stress — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Geopolitical (7 articles)
- Oil Futures Rise As Middle East Stalemate Drags On — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains Amid Middle East Uncertainty Trading Economics
- Oil Holds Gains Amid Middle East Uncertainty Trading Economics
- Oil rises on Middle East tumult, yen firms after BOJ hold Reuters
- Oil advances with Middle East in focus, equities rise slightly Reuters
- Oil Rises as Middle East Disruptions Persist Trading Economics
- Oil Gains as Middle East Disruptions Persist Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.14
Daily:
-0.78 (-0.79%)
Weekly:
-0.37 (-0.38%)
US_10Y
4.39
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.63%)
Weekly:
0.08 (1.86%)
SP500
7209.01
Daily:
73.06 (1.02%)
Weekly:
43.93 (0.61%)
VIX
16.89
Daily:
-1.92 (-10.21%)
Weekly:
-1.82 (-9.73%)
GOLD
4639.3
Daily:
94.1 (2.07%)
Weekly:
-83.0 (-1.76%)
COPPER
6.02
Daily:
0.14 (2.33%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.13%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$105.58
Closest Support:
$97.47
7.68% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$107.15
1.49% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$61.87
0.236
$75.47
0.382
$83.88
0.5
$90.68
0.618
$97.47
Support
0.786
$107.15
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.15
1.618
$155.08
2.0
$177.09
2.618
$212.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$105.07
Forecast Generated:
2026-04-30 23:53:39
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.26%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $104.8 | $93.14 | $116.47 |
| 2026-05-02 | $105.34 | $93.67 | $117.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | $105.68 | $94.01 | $117.34 |
| 2026-05-04 | $106.35 | $94.68 | $118.01 |
| 2026-05-05 | $106.1 | $94.43 | $117.76 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.26% for the next trading day (2026-05-01), reaching $104.80.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally upward trend, moving about 1.2% between 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-05.
- The average confidence interval width is ~22.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the crude oil market. The Brent-WTI spread has increased to $11.15, suggesting stronger demand dynamics globally compared to the U.S. This spread may provide opportunities for arbitrage trading.
With the support levels around the $60 mark for WTI and $62 for Brent, traders should monitor these levels closely for potential volatility. The bullish positioning of managed money traders, increasing their net long positions, indicates a potential upward price trajectory.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance of supply and demand remains tight, with the demand for DoC crude projected to increase by 0.6 mb/d annually through 2027. This signals an opportunity for producers to optimize production planning to meet rising demand.
However, with inventory levels showing a slight increase in OECD commercial stocks, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations. Monitoring geopolitical developments will be crucial as they could impact both supply and market sentiment.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude oil prices on the rise, consumers should prepare for input cost fluctuations. The current prices for WTI at $60.26 and Brent at $64.73 could lead to increased procurement costs in the near term.
Additionally, supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical tensions and inventory levels. Consumers may want to consider hedging against potential price spikes and ensuring stable supply chains to mitigate any disruptions.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market currently reflects a bullish outlook driven by several factors: robust demand forecasts, a tightening supply situation, and strong speculative positioning. The increase in managed money net positions indicates that traders are anticipating further price increases.
However, the decline in refining margins and potential inventory builds could introduce bearish pressures in the short term. Analysts should watch for shifts in geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators that could influence market dynamics moving forward.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading or investment decisions.