WTI just printed a $34.57 year-over-year gain and the market is acting surprised — it shouldn't be. Commercial crude inventories drew 6.2 million barrels in a single week and are now sitting at just 1% above the five-year average, down from 3% the prior week. One or two more prints like that and we're below average heading into summer demand season, with distillates already 11% in the hole at 103.6 million barrels and diesel demand running 4.8% above last year. Total products supplied came in at 20.56 million barrels per day — up 4.6% year-over-year — which means this isn't a geopolitical spike sitting on top of weak demand, it's a geopolitical spike sitting on top of genuine consumption growth. WTI touched $108 intraweek and pulled back to $105 Thursday morning, which is exactly what a market looks like when it's consolidating at resistance rather than rolling over. The $105.15 level is the line — hold it and $108.74 gets retested, lose it and $101.98 is the next stop. The one risk nobody has priced in: the SPR sitting at 397.9 million barrels with retail gasoline at $4.12 and a $4.50 political trigger historically associated with emergency releases. That's $0.38 away. Bulls are not hedged for it.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-02 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil's journey has seen WTI climb $34.57 year-over-year, spurred by a significant 6.2 million barrel inventory draw, now just 1% above the five-year average. Diesel demand is up 4.8%, indicating robust consumption growth. However, recent price fluctuations around $105 highlight market consolidation amidst geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could sway sentiment. With the SPR at 397.9 million barrels, traders must watch for potential emergency releases if prices near the $4.50 gasoline threshold.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
3/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$114.09
$0.08
WTI:
$101.94
$3.13
Spread:
$12.15
(Brent premium of $12.15)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
80,331
Weekly Change:
19,556
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
3
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$101.94
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $98.39
MA(20): $97.48
Current Price is 101.94, 9 day MA 98.39, 20 day MA 97.48
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: 2.6003
Signal: 1.9656
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 56.02
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 56.02 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 341,994
Avg (20d): 312,576
Ratio: 1.09
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 70.4
%D: 81.66
Stochastic %K: 70.4, %D: 81.66. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
STRONG UPTREND
ADX: 25.32
+DI: 27.41
-DI: 18.89
ADX: 25.32 (+DI: 27.41, -DI: 18.89). Trend: strong uptrend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -29.6
Williams %R: -29.6 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 111.91
Middle: 97.48
Lower: 83.04
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 111.91, Middle: 97.48, Lower: 83.04
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13586.0 | 13585.0 | 13460.0 | 12955.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5750.0 | 6078.0 | 5589.0 | 6222.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6438.0 | 4798.0 | 3549.0 | 4258.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16071.0 | 15987.0 | 15889.0 | 15818.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | -688.0 | 1280.0 | 2040.0 | 1963.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 459495.0 | 465729.0 | 443104.0 | 453643.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1645112.0 | 1669195.0 | 1605365.0 | 1605910.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 222299.0 | 228374.0 | 229543.0 | 225168.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 103638.0 | 108132.0 | 106878.0 | 111329.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUN 26) settled at $114.09, change $+0.08. WTI crude (JUN 26) settled at $101.94, change $-3.13. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $12.15 (Brent premium of $12.15). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$114.09
0.08
(JUN 26)
WTI Crude
$101.94
3.13
(JUN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$12.15
Brent premium of $12.15
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, averaging $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key economic growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both years
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years
- India: 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by approximately 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is also positive, with growth of 0.1 mb/d expected in both years.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses primarily from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Key developments include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East route rates reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions and demand from European refiners
- Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route increased by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Notable trends include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase. The supply-demand gap analysis reveals the following:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a significant supply-demand gap, necessitating strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively. The DoC requirement for 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, highlighting the need for coordinated efforts among participating countries to meet the anticipated demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-04-28
Managed Money
80,331
Change: -19,556
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
320,120
Change: +5,815
15.9% of OI
Swap Dealers
-539,774
Change: +1,242
-26.8% of OI
Open Interest
2,017,038
Change: 32,291
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-04-28
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,017,038 contracts (+32,291)
Managed Money Net Position: 80,331 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,556 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 320,120 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -539,774 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
74
Last Updated:
2026-05-02 23:53:34
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Futures Pull Back In Volatile Trade on Middle East Uncertainty — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Futures Rise As Middle East Stalemate Drags On — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Extends Gains Amid Middle East Uncertainty Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.21
Daily:
0.13 (0.13%)
Weekly:
-0.27 (-0.27%)
US_10Y
4.38
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.27%)
Weekly:
0.04 (0.97%)
SP500
7230.12
Daily:
21.11 (0.29%)
Weekly:
56.21 (0.78%)
VIX
16.99
Daily:
0.1 (0.59%)
Weekly:
-1.03 (-5.72%)
GOLD
4629.9
Daily:
15.2 (0.33%)
Weekly:
-45.5 (-0.97%)
COPPER
5.93
Daily:
0.01 (0.1%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-1.43%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$101.94
Closest Support:
$97.47
4.38% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$107.15
5.11% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$61.87
0.236
$75.47
0.382
$83.88
0.5
$90.68
0.618
$97.47
Support
0.786
$107.15
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.15
1.618
$155.08
2.0
$177.09
2.618
$212.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$101.94
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-02 23:53:37
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.71%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | $102.66 | $91.6 | $113.73 |
| 2026-05-03 | $103.17 | $92.11 | $114.23 |
| 2026-05-04 | $103.77 | $92.71 | $114.84 |
| 2026-05-05 | $103.51 | $92.44 | $114.57 |
| 2026-05-06 | $103.16 | $92.1 | $114.22 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.71% for the next trading day (2026-05-02), reaching $102.66.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-02 and 2026-05-06.
- The average confidence interval width is ~21.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market suggests potential upward price movement. The $62.31/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a strengthening market, supported by a $4.47/b increase in the Brent-WTI spread, signaling a divergence in supply and demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.
Traders should monitor the support levels around the $60/b mark for WTI, while resistance may be observed near $64/b for Brent. The recent increase in managed money net positions, despite a slight decline, indicates that traders are still optimistic, although caution is warranted as the sentiment is weakening.
Given the volatility driven by geopolitical factors and inventory fluctuations, traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities, particularly during any price corrections.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions necessitate careful production planning. With a stable demand forecast of 43.0 mb/d for DoC crude in 2026, producers should consider maintaining output levels while also evaluating hedging strategies to mitigate price volatility.
The increase in OECD commercial oil inventories by 6.5 mb could lead to downward pressure on prices if demand does not keep pace, suggesting that producers should be prepared for potential market corrections.
Overall, the market sentiment remains supportive, but producers should remain agile and responsive to any shifts in both demand and geopolitical risks affecting supply chains.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should be prepared for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly as WTI prices hover around $60.26/b. The geopolitical uncertainties and increasing crude imports from regions like China and Japan could affect supply reliability.
With refining margins declining across key hubs, there may be upward pressure on product prices, especially gasoline and diesel. Thus, consumers should evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging against potential price increases.
Monitoring seasonal demand trends will also be critical, as winter fuel demand can significantly impact product availability and pricing.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish fundamentals and weakening sentiment among speculators. The strengthening of the Brent-WTI spread indicates a divergence in market dynamics that could signal shifting demand patterns.
Key driving factors include stable global oil demand growth at 1.4 mb/d and a forecasted increase in non-DoC liquids production, which may balance the market. However, the decline in refining margins suggests potential headwinds for price stability.
Analysts should focus on geopolitical developments and inventory levels as they could lead to significant shifts in market sentiment and price direction in the near term.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.