WTI is sitting at $101 like it has somewhere better to be, which it does — roughly $30 to $70 higher, if you ask the people who actually bought physical barrels last week. That's the whole story. Futures markets are pricing a ceasefire that hasn't happened, a diplomatic framework that doesn't exist, and a Hormuz reopening that — per the US naval blockade still actively running as of Sunday — isn't imminent. Meanwhile the EIA just printed a 6.2 million barrel crude draw for the week ending April 24 against a consensus of 0.2 million. That's a 31-times miss to the bullish side, gasoline dropped another 6.1 million barrels in the same week, and distillates are at 103.6 million barrels heading toward genuine shortage territory. The market's doing something deeply weird right now: it's treating the physical evidence like background noise and the diplomatic headlines like gospel. This week, three things will test that arrangement — the EIA petroleum report on Wednesday May 6, the ongoing War Powers clock expiring on Congress's desk, and whatever Iran does with its 14-point proposal. One credible peace signal sends WTI down 10% in a session. One week of silence and the 6.2 million barrel draw rhythm starts commanding attention. Hold $98 support and the bull case rebuilds. Lose it and you're pricing a deal. Starting the week with increased tension as US/Iran exchange fire - leading WTI to 102 and Brent to 110….on Wednesday - WTI dropped to 95 and Brent to 101 after news of a potential “deal” on Iran/US to stop the war - call me skeptical. This is reported from western outlets while Iran is casting doubt on the potential deal.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-09 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices, specifically WTI, are hanging around $101, fueled by speculative headlines rather than physical market realities. Last week, the EIA reported a surprising 6.2 million barrel draw, far exceeding predictions, hinting at potential supply tightness. However, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, and a lack of credible peace signals keep the market jittery. Watch for upcoming EIA reports and any shifts in U.S.-Iran relations, as they could significantly impact prices moving forward. Stay alert!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$101.29
$1.23
WTI:
$95.42
$0.61
Spread:
$5.87
(Brent premium of $5.87)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
70,791
Weekly Change:
9,540
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$95.42
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.87
MA(20): $96.47
Current Price is 95.42, 9 day MA 100.87, 20 day MA 96.47
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.3692
Signal: 2.0492
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 48.54
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 48.54 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 392,091
Avg (20d): 296,360
Ratio: 1.32
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 33.4
%D: 37.93
Stochastic %K: 33.4, %D: 37.93. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 21.22
+DI: 19.76
-DI: 22.66
ADX: 21.22 (+DI: 19.76, -DI: 22.66). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -66.6
Williams %R: -66.6 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 108.03
Middle: 96.47
Lower: 84.9
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 108.03, Middle: 96.47, Lower: 84.9
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13573.0 | 13586.0 | 13465.0 | 12922.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5477.0 | 5750.0 | 5498.0 | 6192.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4750.0 | 6438.0 | 4121.0 | 3783.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16071.0 | 16078.0 | 15921.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 727.0 | -688.0 | 1377.0 | 2409.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 457182.0 | 459495.0 | 440408.0 | 453496.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1634013.0 | 1645112.0 | 1610654.0 | 1605283.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 219795.0 | 222299.0 | 225540.0 | 224480.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102344.0 | 103638.0 | 107815.0 | 109757.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $101.29, change $+1.23. WTI crude (JUN 26) settled at $95.42, change $+0.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.87 (Brent premium of $5.87). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$101.29
1.23
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$95.42
0.61
(JUN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.87
Brent premium of $5.87
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread widened by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, reduced selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key regional growth forecasts include:
- US: 2.2% for 2026, 2.0% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy adjustments continue to influence these forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 is stable at 1.4 mb/d, with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, the forecast remains at an increase of about 1.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand will continue to rise by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is projected to grow by about 0.6 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses primarily from the bottom of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supply.
- Rotterdam: All key product margins fell, with gasoline experiencing the most significant decline.
- Singapore: Declines driven by high gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates began the year strongly, influenced by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Highlights include:
- VLCC rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64% y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates rose by 12% m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions.
- Aframax rates also showed strong performance, with cross-Med rates up by 10% m-o-m.
- Clean tanker rates increased, particularly in the East of Suez, with rates up by 17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, aligning with the five-year average. Key trends include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, with higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- OECD Europe saw a decline in crude imports, while product exports increased.
- China's crude imports surged to a record 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India's crude imports remained high at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, totaling 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb.
- OECD crude oil stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y.
- Days of forward cover increased by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, and for 2027 at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
This analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-05
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: 50,789
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-05
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,067,827 contracts (+50,789)
Managed Money Net Position: 70,791 contracts (3.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,540 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 337,501 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -543,651 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
80
Last Updated:
2026-05-09 23:52:37
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- US oil prices rebound as investors assess prospects for a Middle East peace deal Reuters
- Gilt Yields Fall on Prospects of Resolution to Middle East Conflict — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Global Bond Yields, Dollar Slide on Expectation of Middle East De-Escalation — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- U.S. Treasury Yields Fall, Markets Bet on Middle East Resolution — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
97.84
Daily:
-0.41 (-0.42%)
Weekly:
-0.63 (-0.64%)
US_10Y
4.36
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.84%)
SP500
7398.93
Daily:
61.82 (0.84%)
Weekly:
198.18 (2.75%)
VIX
17.19
Daily:
0.11 (0.64%)
Weekly:
-1.1 (-6.01%)
GOLD
4720.4
Daily:
20.6 (0.44%)
Weekly:
200.9 (4.45%)
COPPER
6.25
Daily:
0.12 (1.98%)
Weekly:
0.45 (7.83%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$95.42
Closest Support:
$90.68
4.97% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$97.47
2.15% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$61.87
0.236
$75.47
0.382
$83.88
0.5
$90.68
Support
0.618
$97.47
Resistance
0.786
$107.15
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.15
1.618
$155.08
2.0
$177.09
2.618
$212.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$95.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-09 23:52:38
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | $95.44 | $84.27 | $106.61 |
| 2026-05-10 | $95.02 | $83.85 | $106.19 |
| 2026-05-11 | $94.48 | $83.3 | $105.65 |
| 2026-05-12 | $94.53 | $83.35 | $105.7 |
| 2026-05-13 | $94.59 | $83.42 | $105.77 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2026-05-09), reaching $95.44.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-09 and 2026-05-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~23.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market shows signs of bullish sentiment despite a slight bearish sentiment in news analysis. The $62.31/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and the $64.73/b for ICE Brent indicate potential upward price momentum. The $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread suggests a tightening supply/demand dynamic favoring Brent, which could provide opportunities for traders to capitalize on price differentials. Expect volatility as the market reacts to geopolitical developments and inventory fluctuations, particularly given the risk factors associated with global supply disruptions.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
Producers should consider the implications of the balanced supply and demand forecast, with global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026. The recent decrease in production by OPEC countries indicates a need for careful hedging strategies to manage price risks effectively. Additionally, the rise in OECD commercial stocks could impact pricing strategies, necessitating adjustments in production planning to align with market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently averaging $60.26/b and $64.73/b, respectively. Given the geopolitical uncertainties and supply reliability risks, it is essential to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate cost impacts. Monitoring inventory levels will be crucial as they can influence market pricing and availability of crude and refined products.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market exhibits a complex interplay of factors driving both bullish and bearish sentiments. Key drivers include stable global economic growth forecasts, balanced supply/demand dynamics, and fluctuating geopolitical landscapes. Analysts should closely monitor the risks posed by geopolitical tensions and the potential for market sentiment shifts as traders react to inventory data and production changes. The current market conditions suggest a cautious outlook, with opportunities for strategic positioning in response to evolving trends.
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.