WTI is sitting at $101 like it has somewhere better to be, which it does — roughly $30 to $70 higher, if you ask the people who actually bought physical barrels last week. That's the whole story. Futures markets are pricing a ceasefire that hasn't happened, a diplomatic framework that doesn't exist, and a Hormuz reopening that — per the US naval blockade still actively running as of Sunday — isn't imminent. Meanwhile the EIA just printed a 6.2 million barrel crude draw for the week ending April 24 against a consensus of 0.2 million. That's a 31-times miss to the bullish side, gasoline dropped another 6.1 million barrels in the same week, and distillates are at 103.6 million barrels heading toward genuine shortage territory. The market's doing something deeply weird right now: it's treating the physical evidence like background noise and the diplomatic headlines like gospel. This week, three things will test that arrangement — the EIA petroleum report on Wednesday May 6, the ongoing War Powers clock expiring on Congress's desk, and whatever Iran does with its 14-point proposal. One credible peace signal sends WTI down 10% in a session. One week of silence and the 6.2 million barrel draw rhythm starts commanding attention. Hold $98 support and the bull case rebuilds. Lose it and you're pricing a deal. Starting the week with increased tension as US/Iran exchange fire - leading WTI to 102 and Brent to 110….on Wednesday - WTI dropped to 95 and Brent to 101 after news of a potential “deal” on Iran/US to stop the war - call me skeptical. This is reported from western outlets while Iran is casting doubt on the potential deal.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-10 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil (WTI) is currently at $101, influenced by a mix of geopolitical tensions and market dynamics. Last week, EIA reported a surprising 6.2 million barrel crude draw, contrasting sharply with expectations, while gasoline supplies also dropped. However, markets seem to be fixated on diplomatic headlines rather than physical supply signals. The upcoming EIA report and U.S.-Iran developments will be pivotal; a credible peace signal could push WTI down significantly. Watch for resistance around $100.21 as tensions evolve.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$101.29
$1.23
WTI:
$95.42
$0.61
Spread:
$5.87
(Brent premium of $5.87)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
70,791
Weekly Change:
9,540
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$99.76
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.85
MA(20): $96.5
Current Price is 99.76, 9 day MA 100.85, 20 day MA 96.5
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.3838
Signal: 1.9162
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.94
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 30,720
Avg (20d): 280,679
Ratio: 0.11
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 52.04
%D: 39.34
Stochastic %K: 52.04, %D: 39.34. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 19.91
+DI: 20.42
-DI: 21.61
ADX: 19.91 (+DI: 20.42, -DI: 21.61). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -47.96
Williams %R: -47.96 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 108.1
Middle: 96.5
Lower: 84.9
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 108.1, Middle: 96.5, Lower: 84.9
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13573.0 | 13586.0 | 13465.0 | 12922.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5477.0 | 5750.0 | 5498.0 | 6192.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4750.0 | 6438.0 | 4121.0 | 3783.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16071.0 | 16078.0 | 15921.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 727.0 | -688.0 | 1377.0 | 2409.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 457182.0 | 459495.0 | 440408.0 | 453496.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1634013.0 | 1645112.0 | 1610654.0 | 1605283.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 219795.0 | 222299.0 | 225540.0 | 224480.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102344.0 | 103638.0 | 107815.0 | 109757.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $101.29, change $+1.23. WTI crude (JUN 26) settled at $95.42, change $+0.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.87 (Brent premium of $5.87). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$101.29
1.23
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$95.42
0.61
(JUN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.87
Brent premium of $5.87
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth is projected at 0.9%, and China's at 4.5% for both years. India's growth forecasts are 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's economy is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, while Russia's growth is forecasted at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these economic forecasts.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
Key demand drivers include economic recovery and increased industrial activity, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and shifts in energy policies.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, reaching an average of about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027.
In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d, indicating ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased availability of heavy crude supplies affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore experienced similar trends, driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest levels for the month in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose due to weather disruptions and increased demand from European refiners. Aframax spot freight rates also performed strongly, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates were led by East of Suez, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average. US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa. Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, a decrease from previous months.
In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020, while China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y, while total product stocks reached 1,481 mb, up by 14.4 mb, y-o-y. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also projected to remain at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting similar growth.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, necessitating strategic production decisions to balance the market effectively. The ongoing dynamics in global oil demand and supply will be critical in shaping future market conditions.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-05
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: 50,789
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-05
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,067,827 contracts (+50,789)
Managed Money Net Position: 70,791 contracts (3.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,540 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 337,501 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -543,651 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
50
Last Updated:
2026-05-10 23:52:43
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
- Oil Rises on Renewed Middle East Tensions Trading Economics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.08
Daily:
0.24 (0.25%)
Weekly:
-0.4 (-0.4%)
US_10Y
4.36
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.64%)
Weekly:
-0.08 (-1.84%)
SP500
7398.93
Daily:
61.82 (0.84%)
Weekly:
198.18 (2.75%)
VIX
17.19
Daily:
0.11 (0.64%)
Weekly:
-1.1 (-6.01%)
GOLD
4692.3
Daily:
-28.1 (-0.6%)
Weekly:
136.5 (3.0%)
COPPER
6.34
Daily:
0.09 (1.41%)
Weekly:
0.39 (6.63%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$99.76
Closest Support:
$97.47
2.3% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$107.15
7.41% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$61.87
0.236
$75.47
0.382
$83.88
0.5
$90.68
0.618
$97.47
Support
0.786
$107.15
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.15
1.618
$155.08
2.0
$177.09
2.618
$212.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$95.42
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-10 23:52:45
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.02%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | $95.44 | $84.27 | $106.61 |
| 2026-05-10 | $95.02 | $83.85 | $106.19 |
| 2026-05-11 | $94.47 | $83.3 | $105.65 |
| 2026-05-12 | $94.52 | $83.35 | $105.7 |
| 2026-05-13 | $94.59 | $83.42 | $105.76 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2026-05-09), reaching $95.44.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-09 and 2026-05-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~23.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the short term, with the Brent and WTI contracts showing upward trends. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $5.87, suggesting a divergence in supply and demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets. This could present short-term trading opportunities as traders may capitalize on these spreads.
Volatility is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which can create supply reliability risks. Traders should monitor support levels around $60.00 for WTI and $62.00 for Brent, while resistance could be observed at $65.00 for Brent.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market dynamics suggest a need for careful production planning as crude oil production from OPEC countries has decreased, creating potential opportunities for higher prices. The balance of supply and demand indicates stable demand growth, with DoC crude demand projected to rise to 43.0 mb/d in 2026.
Producers may want to consider hedging strategies to protect against potential price volatility, especially given the weakening sentiment among managed money traders. The rise in inventory levels may also necessitate adjustments in production strategies to align with market conditions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly as WTI and Brent prices rise. The recent data indicates that crude imports are stable, but geopolitical tensions could pose supply reliability risks that may affect procurement strategies.
With refining margins declining, it is essential for consumers to assess hedging opportunities to mitigate rising costs. Monitoring inventory levels and understanding market sentiment will be crucial for making informed decisions regarding procurement.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market shows a complex interplay of factors. The bearish sentiment reflected in news sentiment scores (-0.600) contrasts with bullish positioning from managed money traders, indicating potential market volatility. The fundamental balance remains supportive with stable demand growth forecasts, particularly from non-OECD countries.
Analysts should focus on geopolitical developments and their implications for supply chains, as well as the impact of fluctuating refining margins on the overall market. The current landscape suggests a cautious approach to forecasting, with attention to both risks and machine learning predictions for price movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.