WTI settled at $97.94 on Monday, up roughly 2.7% on the session and clinging to the $97.90 pivot level that now defines the battle line between stalemate and escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, and the market got a blunt reality check from NinjaTrader's Tracy Shuchart: the floating storage buffer that had been quietly suppressing prices is "pretty much gone," and the supply impact that should have already been priced in is finally starting to matter. Brent closed near $104.84, keeping the spread tight at roughly $6.90 and confirming the global bid is real. WTI tagged $99.03 intraday before pulling back — the $101.98 resistance held for now, but the close above $97.90 is the tell. The bull case doesn't need new news this week. It just needs Hormuz to stay closed, and nothing on the board suggests it won't.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-11 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices are on the rise, with WTI settling at $97.94, driven by the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and a diminishing floating storage buffer. Analysts indicate that the market is finally responding to supply constraints, with WTI nearing the pivotal $100 mark. As Brent holds around $104.84, the tight spread signals a solid global demand. With no major disruptions expected, traders should watch for resistance at $101.98, while the market stays focused on geopolitical tensions that could further influence pricing.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$101.29
$1.23
WTI:
$95.42
$0.61
Spread:
$5.87
(Brent premium of $5.87)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
70,791
Weekly Change:
9,540
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$98.88
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.75
MA(20): $96.46
Current Price is 98.88, 9 day MA 100.75, 20 day MA 96.46
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.3136
Signal: 1.9021
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 52.11
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 52.11 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,432
Avg (20d): 272,182
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 48.26
%D: 38.08
Stochastic %K: 48.26, %D: 38.08. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
WEAK TREND
ADX: 20.08
+DI: 19.64
-DI: 21.82
ADX: 20.08 (+DI: 19.64, -DI: 21.82). Trend: weak trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -51.74
Williams %R: -51.74 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 108.01
Middle: 96.46
Lower: 84.9
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 108.01, Middle: 96.46, Lower: 84.9
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13573.0 | 13586.0 | 13465.0 | 12922.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5477.0 | 5750.0 | 5498.0 | 6192.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4750.0 | 6438.0 | 4121.0 | 3783.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16029.0 | 16071.0 | 16078.0 | 15921.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 727.0 | -688.0 | 1377.0 | 2409.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 457182.0 | 459495.0 | 440408.0 | 453496.0 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1634013.0 | 1645112.0 | 1610654.0 | 1605283.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 219795.0 | 222299.0 | 225540.0 | 224480.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102344.0 | 103638.0 | 107815.0 | 109757.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $101.29, change $+1.23. WTI crude (JUN 26) settled at $95.42, change $+0.61. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.87 (Brent premium of $5.87). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$101.29
1.23
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$95.42
0.61
(JUN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.87
Brent premium of $5.87
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Key economic growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027
- China: 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027
- India: 6.6% for 2026, 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, 1.5% for 2027
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for 2027 remains similar. Key insights include:
- NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027.
- In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to:
- Stronger feedstock prices
- Seasonal demand-side pressures
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from increased availability of heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by various factors:
- Weather disruptions
- Geopolitical uncertainties
- Unplanned outages
- Steady loading activity
- VLCC spot freight rates rose significantly, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y.
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions.
- Aframax rates also saw strong performance, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
- In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key trends include:
- US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
- Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous elevated levels.
- In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020.
- China’s crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December.
- India’s crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. Key insights include:
- OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to stand at 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for 2027 is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The supply-demand gap analysis indicates a significant requirement for DoC crude to meet the projected demand. The strategic outlook for production decisions will need to consider these dynamics to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-05
Managed Money
70,791
Change: -9,540
3.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
337,501
Change: +17,381
16.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-543,651
Change: -3,877
-26.3% of OI
Open Interest
2,067,827
Change: 50,789
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-05
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,067,827 contracts (+50,789)
Managed Money Net Position: 70,791 contracts (3.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -9,540 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 337,501 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -543,651 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
53
Last Updated:
2026-05-11 23:53:17
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.14
Daily:
0.3 (0.3%)
Weekly:
-0.34 (-0.35%)
US_10Y
4.41
Daily:
0.05 (1.05%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.14%)
SP500
7412.84
Daily:
13.91 (0.19%)
Weekly:
153.62 (2.12%)
VIX
18.38
Daily:
1.19 (6.92%)
Weekly:
1.0 (5.75%)
GOLD
4736.0
Daily:
15.6 (0.33%)
Weekly:
180.2 (3.96%)
COPPER
6.5
Daily:
0.25 (3.96%)
Weekly:
0.55 (9.31%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$98.88
Closest Support:
$97.47
1.43% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$107.15
8.36% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$61.87
0.236
$75.47
0.382
$83.88
0.5
$90.68
0.618
$97.47
Support
0.786
$107.15
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$135.15
1.618
$155.08
2.0
$177.09
2.618
$212.69
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$98.07
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-11 23:53:19
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.6%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | $97.48 | $86.27 | $108.7 |
| 2026-05-13 | $96.73 | $85.52 | $107.94 |
| 2026-05-14 | $96.89 | $85.68 | $108.1 |
| 2026-05-15 | $96.96 | $85.75 | $108.17 |
| 2026-05-16 | $97.15 | $85.94 | $108.36 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.60% for the next trading day (2026-05-12), reaching $97.48.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-12 and 2026-05-16.
- The average confidence interval width is ~23.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market shows a bullish sentiment, supported by a rise in the OPEC Reference Basket and strong backwardation in futures contracts. The Brent-WTI spread has increased to $4.47/b, indicating a tighter supply-demand dynamic in the global market compared to the U.S. This spread reflects geopolitical tensions and transportation costs, which could present short-term volatility risks for traders.
Focus on support levels around $60.00/b for WTI and $64.00/b for Brent, as these levels could provide buying opportunities if tested. Additionally, the resistance levels at $65.00/b for Brent may be pivotal for price movements in the near term.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With the recent bullish sentiment in the market and a forecasted demand increase for DoC crude to 43.0 mb/d in 2026, producers should reassess their production planning and hedging strategies. The increase in non-DoC liquids production could impact pricing, suggesting a need for flexibility in operational strategies.
The rise in crude inventories by 6.5 mb may indicate a need to monitor inventory levels closely to avoid oversupply situations, especially with global demand growth remaining stable. Producers should also consider geopolitical factors that could disrupt supply chains and influence market sentiment.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI prices currently averaging $60.26/b and Brent at $64.73/b. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions could impact procurement strategies, making it essential to have contingency plans in place.
Additionally, the decline in refining margins due to increased feedstock prices may affect operational costs. Consumers should evaluate hedging options to mitigate the impact of price volatility on their operations and ensure stable supply chains during peak demand seasons.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment, driven by strong demand forecasts and a tightening supply outlook. Key factors influencing this market include stable global economic growth projections and a notable increase in speculative positions among managed money traders, indicating potential upward price momentum.
The balance of supply and demand remains tight, with demand for DoC crude expected to rise steadily. Analysts should pay close attention to the evolving geopolitical landscape, which could introduce significant volatility. The current market dynamics suggest that traders and producers alike may need to adapt strategies quickly to capitalize on these shifts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice regarding buy or sell decisions.