Everything and I mean EVERYTHING is about the Strait of Hormuz - almost no one knew about the constraint point before the US attacked Iran - but now every news outlet talks about it all the time. Supply out of the Middle East is down about 9 mmbpd in April (May’s numbers will lag). Physical barrels are priced higher $120-150 while Peace would lead to $80. So traders have it priced “about right” with WTI at $100 and Brent over $109. Everything is about headlines right now and the latest ones indicate that there is a consensus expectation that flow through the Strait of Hormuz will start up again in June….IEA indicated that even if flows resume - we will be short barrels through October.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-15 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil markets are currently fixated on the Strait of Hormuz, with April supply from the Middle East down 9 mmbpd, pushing prices higher—WTI is around $100 and Brent exceeds $109. Concerns over inventory and global supply disruptions are fueling this surge, as reiterated by multiple sources. The IEA warns that even if flows resume by June, we could face a supply shortfall through October. Traders are navigating a volatile landscape, where headlines are key, but fundamentals suggest prices may remain elevated in the near term.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$105.72
$0.09
WTI:
$101.17
$0.15
Spread:
$4.55
(Brent premium of $4.55)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
72,801
Weekly Change:
2,010
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$101.16
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $99.02
MA(20): $98.64
Current Price is 101.16, 9 day MA 99.02, 20 day MA 98.64
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.5902
Signal: 1.6902
Days since crossover: 8
MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 54.13
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 54.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 182,693
Avg (20d): 281,207
Ratio: 0.65
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 56.13
%D: 55.93
Stochastic %K: 56.13, %D: 55.93. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.66
+DI: 20.39
-DI: 21.94
ADX: 15.66 (+DI: 20.39, -DI: 21.94). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -43.87
Williams %R: -43.87 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 108.14
Middle: 98.64
Lower: 89.13
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 108.14, Middle: 98.64, Lower: 89.13
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13710.0 | 13573.0 | 13367.0 | 12895.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5901.0 | 5477.0 | 6056.0 | 6481.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5492.0 | 4750.0 | 4006.0 | 3938.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16399.0 | 16029.0 | 16071.0 | 16215.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 409.0 | 727.0 | 2050.0 | 2543.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 452876.0 | 457182.0 | 438376.0 | 455491.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1620349.0 | 1634013.0 | 1612398.0 | 1610181.0 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 215711.0 | 219795.0 | 225728.0 | 223601.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102534.0 | 102344.0 | 106708.0 | 108717.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $105.72, change $+0.09. WTI crude (JUN 26) settled at $101.17, change $+0.15. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.55 (Brent premium of $4.55). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$105.72
0.09
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$101.17
0.15
(JUN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.55
Brent premium of $4.55
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone and Japan are projected to grow at 1.2% and 0.9% respectively for both years. China's growth forecast remains at 4.5%, while India is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's economic growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia is projected to grow at 1.3% and 1.5% for the respective years.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, driven mainly by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This trend is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, reaching an average of 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were attributed to increased heavy crude supply affecting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore faced similar declines driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached their highest levels for the month in over a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates increased due to weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates showed robust performance, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17% m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d to 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined due to lower flows from Kazakhstan, but product exports increased. Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, and China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d. India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d, despite a slight m-o-m decline.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to a total of 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher y-o-y and 44.1 mb above the five-year average, but 81.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates careful strategic planning for production decisions moving forward.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-12
Managed Money
72,801
Change: +2,010
3.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
357,407
Change: +19,906
17.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-553,541
Change: -9,890
-26.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,081,927
Change: 14,100
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-12
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,081,927 contracts (+14,100)
Managed Money Net Position: 72,801 contracts (3.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,010 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 357,407 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -553,541 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.65
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
77
Last Updated:
2026-05-15 23:52:41
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.65
Top News Topics
Supply (4 articles)
- Oil ends flat as tanker crossings through Strait of Hormuz temper supply fears Reuters
- Oil Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- WTI Firms as Supply Tightness Persists Trading Economics
- Backwardation in Oil: Fading Supply Concerns or Underpricing Risk? CME Group
Demand (1 articles)
- Low-Income Countries Most Vulnerable to Lost Oil Demand — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Infrastructure (1 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Stocks fall, oil rallies as Middle East peace hopes fade Reuters
- Indian PM's Call to Cut Energy Use Signals Policy Changes Ahead — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- AI rally pauses as Middle East ceasefire goes on 'life support' Reuters
- BOJ April Meeting Summary Leaves Room for Policy Options — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.27
Daily:
0.39 (0.39%)
Weekly:
1.33 (1.36%)
US_10Y
4.6
Daily:
0.13 (3.0%)
Weekly:
0.19 (4.2%)
SP500
7408.5
Daily:
-92.74 (-1.24%)
Weekly:
-4.34 (-0.06%)
VIX
18.43
Daily:
1.17 (6.78%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.27%)
GOLD
4543.6
Daily:
-134.5 (-2.88%)
Weekly:
-175.1 (-3.71%)
COPPER
6.29
Daily:
-0.28 (-4.23%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-1.93%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$101.16
Closest Support:
$98.13
3.0% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$107.52
6.29% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$63.6
0.236
$76.79
0.382
$84.95
0.5
$91.54
0.618
$98.13
Support
0.786
$107.52
Resistance
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$134.68
1.618
$154.01
2.0
$175.36
2.618
$209.89
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$101.17
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-15 23:52:44
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.22%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $101.39 | $90.92 | $111.86 |
| 2026-05-16 | $101.47 | $91.0 | $111.93 |
| 2026-05-17 | $101.79 | $91.33 | $112.26 |
| 2026-05-18 | $101.68 | $91.21 | $112.15 |
| 2026-05-19 | $101.68 | $91.21 | $112.14 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2026-05-15), reaching $101.39.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-15 and 2026-05-19.
- The average confidence interval width is ~20.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market shows bullish sentiment with the ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts experiencing significant month-on-month increases, suggesting potential upward price momentum. The $62.31 for OPEC Reference Basket and $64.73 for ICE Brent indicate a strengthening market.
The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.55, reflecting differing supply and demand dynamics, which could present short-term opportunities for arbitrage. The market is currently in a state of increased volatility, driven by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand pressures.
Traders should monitor Fibonacci retracement levels for potential price reversals, particularly if prices approach recent highs. The increase in managed money net positions indicates a strengthening bullish trend, but extreme positioning could signal a potential market reversal.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a forecasted demand increase for DoC crude to 43.0 mb/d in 2026, producers should align their production planning accordingly. The decrease in production by DoC countries highlights a potential opportunity for non-DoC producers to capture market share.
Given the decline in refining margins, producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses from lower product prices. The rise in crude stocks could also impact pricing, necessitating strategic inventory management.
The current market sentiment remains positive, which may support pricing, but producers should remain vigilant about geopolitical risks that could disrupt supply chains.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude prices are on the rise, consumers should prepare for input cost fluctuations. The current WTI and Brent prices suggest potential increases in procurement costs, especially with the Brent trading at a premium.
Supply reliability may be impacted by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand spikes, which could lead to supply chain disruptions. Consumers should consider strategic procurement and hedging to manage these risks effectively.
The steady rise in crude imports and product exports indicates a dynamic market, but consumers should monitor inventory levels closely, as rising crude stocks could affect pricing and availability.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a strong bullish sentiment, driven by robust demand forecasts and a widening Brent-WTI spread. The overall economic growth projections remain stable, which supports ongoing demand for oil.
Key driving factors include increased demand from non-OECD countries and production challenges from DoC countries. Additionally, the decline in refining margins and rising inventory levels could present challenges for the market.
Analysts should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and technical indicators that could signal shifts in market sentiment and price direction. The current positioning of managed money traders suggests a potential for continued bullish momentum, but caution is warranted due to the risk of extreme positioning leading to reversals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor for personalized guidance.