Iran built a government agency to control a shipping lane this week and the market somehow spent Tuesday afternoon pretending that was a peace signal. WTI swung $8 in four days — $108.99 on May 15, a -5.66% gut-punch on Wednesday when Trump said "final stages," then a 2% recovery Thursday morning when Tehran's Supreme Leader blocked uranium exports and announced the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," which is bureaucratic language for "we own this chokepoint now." The physical market never bought the peace trade for a second — international barrels are clearing $30 to $50 above NYMEX because buyers who need actual oil, not futures contracts, are paying whatever it takes to secure a cargo. Goldman has 14.5 million barrels per day curtailed from the Persian Gulf, 500 million barrels already drained from global stockpiles, and a trajectory to 1 billion barrels by June. The IEA says the market stays "severely undersupplied" through October even if the conflict ends next month. The US is holding at 445 million barrels of commercial inventory — only 2% below the 5-year average — but the government pulled a record 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week to get there, and that is a cushion being spent, not a structural fix. $100 is the pivot. A signed framework sends it to $80. Another drone on a Saudi facility sends it to $120 before the close. Until one of those happens, volatility is the only honest trade. Crude ended the week (before Memorial holiday) back down to $96 close to the 97.90 support/resistance line.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-23 23:52
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil prices have been on a rollercoaster, with WTI hitting $108.99 before a swift drop to $96 amid geopolitical tensions and supply issues. Iran's newly formed agency to control key shipping lanes has not eased market fears, as physical oil trades significantly higher than futures. Goldman Sachs warns of severe supply curtailments, while the U.S. continues to draw down its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The market remains volatile, with a price pivot around $100, setting the stage for further swings based on geopolitical developments or supply chain disruptions.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$103.54
$0.96
WTI:
$96.6
$0.25
Spread:
$6.94
(Brent premium of $6.94)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,219
Weekly Change:
25,418
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$96.6
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $101.94
MA(20): $100.98
Current Price is 96.6, 9 day MA 101.94, 20 day MA 100.98
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 1.1129
Signal: 1.816
Days since crossover: 2
MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
HIGHER
Current: 345,482
Avg (20d): 268,952
Ratio: 1.28
Volume is higher versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 38.15
%D: 40.41
Stochastic %K: 38.15, %D: 40.41. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.15
+DI: 19.76
-DI: 25.21
ADX: 15.15 (+DI: 19.76, -DI: 25.21). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -61.85
Williams %R: -61.85 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 109.85
Middle: 100.98
Lower: 92.12
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 109.85, Middle: 100.98, Lower: 92.12
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13702.0 | 13710.0 | 13387.0 | 12930.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6016.0 | 5901.0 | 5841.0 | 6200.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5604.0 | 5492.0 | 3369.0 | 4262.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16319.0 | 16399.0 | 16401.0 | 16347.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 412.0 | 409.0 | 2472.0 | 1938.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 445013.0 | 452876.0 | 441830.0 | 452390.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1601408.0 | 1620349.0 | 1617795.0 | 1610802.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214163.0 | 215711.0 | 224706.0 | 222873.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102906.0 | 102534.0 | 103553.0 | 108849.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $103.54, change $+0.96. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $96.6, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.94 (Brent premium of $6.94). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$103.54
0.96
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$96.6
0.25
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.94
Brent premium of $6.94
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also increased by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.
The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, as hedge funds and other money managers sharply increased their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The growth outlooks for key economies are as follows:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, remains at 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both years
- Japan: Unchanged at 0.9% for both years
- China: Consistent at 4.5% for both years
- India: 6.6% for 2026, slightly down to 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026, increasing to 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d. For 2027, demand is forecast to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, with OECD growth at 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD at 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, reaching about 8.8 mb/d in 2026 and 8.9 mb/d in 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures.
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from the bottom section of the barrel due to increased heavy crude supply
- Rotterdam: All key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the drop
- Singapore: Decline driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties.
- VLCC rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates rose by 12%, m-o-m, on the USGC-to-Europe route
- Aframax rates also performed well, with cross-Med rates up by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates increased, led by East of Suez, up by 17%, m-o-m
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa.
- OECD Europe: Crude imports declined, but product exports increased
- Japan: Crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China: Crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India: Crude imports remained high at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data show OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average.
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb to 1,363 mb
- Product stocks increased by 8.6 mb to 1,481 mb
- Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than 2025. For 2027, the demand is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d, reflecting a similar increase.
The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for 2026:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
The supply-demand gap indicates a requirement for DoC crude of 43.0 mb/d against a world demand of 106.5 mb/d and non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d. This analysis highlights the strategic outlook for production decisions as the market balances supply and demand dynamics.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-19
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-19
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,002,950 contracts (-78,977)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,219 contracts (4.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +25,418 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 372,149 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -572,558 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
47
Last Updated:
2026-05-23 23:52:17
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (2 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.32
Daily:
0.13 (0.13%)
Weekly:
0.35 (0.35%)
US_10Y
4.56
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.41%)
SP500
7473.47
Daily:
27.75 (0.37%)
Weekly:
70.42 (0.95%)
VIX
16.7
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.36%)
Weekly:
-1.12 (-6.29%)
GOLD
4521.0
Daily:
-18.8 (-0.41%)
Weekly:
-31.5 (-0.69%)
COPPER
6.34
Daily:
0.09 (1.36%)
Weekly:
0.07 (1.12%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$96.6
Closest Support:
$92.17
4.59% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$98.61
2.08% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$64.85
0.236
$77.74
0.382
$85.72
0.5
$92.17
Support
0.618
$98.61
Resistance
0.786
$107.79
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$134.34
1.618
$153.24
2.0
$174.11
2.618
$207.87
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$96.6
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-23 23:52:20
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.22%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | $96.81 | $88.05 | $105.57 |
| 2026-05-24 | $96.77 | $88.01 | $105.53 |
| 2026-05-25 | $95.97 | $87.21 | $104.74 |
| 2026-05-26 | $95.86 | $87.09 | $104.62 |
| 2026-05-27 | $95.94 | $87.18 | $104.7 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.22% for the next trading day (2026-05-23), reaching $96.81.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-23 and 2026-05-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~18.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment in the market, with the OPEC Reference Basket increasing to an average of $62.31/b. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.47/b, suggesting that the market is reacting to differences in global and U.S. supply dynamics. This could offer short-term trading opportunities for those looking to capitalize on the spread.
The market remains volatile, and traders should monitor the support levels around $60.26/b for WTI and $62.31/b for the OPEC basket. Fibonacci retracement levels may provide additional insights into potential price movements. Given the geopolitical uncertainties and the bullish positioning from managed money traders, caution is advised as extreme positioning could signal potential market reversals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current supply-demand balance indicates a stable outlook for production planning, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.4 mb/d for 2026. Producers should consider the implications of OECD commercial oil inventories increasing by 6.5 mb, which may affect pricing strategies and operational efficiency.
Given the bearish news sentiment and the recent decrease in crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC, hedging strategies should be evaluated to mitigate price volatility. The current market sentiment could influence hedging decisions and production levels, especially in light of geopolitical factors affecting supply reliability.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
As crude prices have shown an upward trend, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The average price for WTI is currently at $60.26/b, and Brent at $64.73/b. These prices could affect procurement strategies, especially with the increasing demand forecast in the non-OECD regions.
Additionally, the geopolitical risks highlighted in the news sentiment could impact supply reliability. Consumers may want to consider strategic stockpiling or flexible procurement options to navigate potential disruptions, particularly with winter demand influencing product imports.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of -0.700. However, the bullish positioning of managed money traders and the recent increase in crude prices suggest potential shifts in market dynamics. Analysts should closely monitor the fundamental balance of supply and demand, particularly as global oil demand is forecasted to grow steadily.
Key driving factors include the geopolitical uncertainties, the evolving CFTC positioning data, and the implications of fluctuating refining margins. The overall outlook may shift depending on how these factors converge, emphasizing the importance of ongoing analysis and scenario planning.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.