Iran built a government agency to control a shipping lane this week and the market somehow spent Tuesday afternoon pretending that was a peace signal. WTI swung $8 in four days — $108.99 on May 15, a -5.66% gut-punch on Wednesday when Trump said "final stages," then a 2% recovery Thursday morning when Tehran's Supreme Leader blocked uranium exports and announced the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," which is bureaucratic language for "we own this chokepoint now." The physical market never bought the peace trade for a second — international barrels are clearing $30 to $50 above NYMEX because buyers who need actual oil, not futures contracts, are paying whatever it takes to secure a cargo. Goldman has 14.5 million barrels per day curtailed from the Persian Gulf, 500 million barrels already drained from global stockpiles, and a trajectory to 1 billion barrels by June. The IEA says the market stays "severely undersupplied" through October even if the conflict ends next month. The US is holding at 445 million barrels of commercial inventory — only 2% below the 5-year average — but the government pulled a record 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week to get there, and that is a cushion being spent, not a structural fix. $100 is the pivot. A signed framework sends it to $80. Another drone on a Saudi facility sends it to $120 before the close. Until one of those happens, volatility is the only honest trade. Crude ended the week (before Memorial holiday) back down to $96 close to the 97.90 support/resistance line.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-24 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil has seen significant volatility, swinging from $108.99 to a -5.66% drop after geopolitical tensions escalated. Iran's new agency controlling the Strait of Hormuz has added complexity, yet the physical market remains tight, with prices clearing $30-$50 above NYMEX. Goldman estimates a potential 1 billion barrels will be drained from global stockpiles by June. With the U.S. holding strategic reserves and a pivotal $100 mark, a peace deal could drop prices to $80, while further conflict risks pushing them to $120. Watch for key developments!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$103.54
$0.96
WTI:
$96.6
$0.25
Spread:
$6.94
(Brent premium of $6.94)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
NEUTRAL
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,219
Weekly Change:
25,418
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$96.6
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $101.32
MA(20): $101.0
Current Price is 96.6, 9 day MA 101.32, 20 day MA 101.0
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.7275
Signal: 1.5983
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 46.91
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 46.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 32,925
Avg (20d): 259,645
Ratio: 0.13
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 38.15
%D: 37.75
Stochastic %K: 38.15, %D: 37.75. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.58
+DI: 18.4
-DI: 28.3
ADX: 15.58 (+DI: 18.4, -DI: 28.3). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -61.85
Williams %R: -61.85 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 109.83
Middle: 101.0
Lower: 92.16
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 109.83, Middle: 101.0, Lower: 92.16
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13702.0 | 13710.0 | 13387.0 | 12930.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6016.0 | 5901.0 | 5841.0 | 6200.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5604.0 | 5492.0 | 3369.0 | 4262.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16319.0 | 16399.0 | 16401.0 | 16347.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 412.0 | 409.0 | 2472.0 | 1938.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 445013.0 | 452876.0 | 441830.0 | 452390.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1601408.0 | 1620349.0 | 1617795.0 | 1610802.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214163.0 | 215711.0 | 224706.0 | 222873.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102906.0 | 102534.0 | 103553.0 | 108849.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $103.54, change $+0.96. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $96.6, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.94 (Brent premium of $6.94). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$103.54
0.96
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$96.6
0.25
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.94
Brent premium of $6.94
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract saw a rise of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves for all major crude benchmarks strengthened, indicating a shift into stronger backwardation for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. The forward curve for GME Oman remained relatively unchanged, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Key economic growth outlooks include:
- US: Revised slightly up to 2.2% for 2026, 2% for 2027
- Eurozone: Steady at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027
- Japan: Consistent at 0.9% for both years
- China: Maintained at 4.5% for both years
- India: Forecasts at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027
- Brazil: 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027
- Russia: 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to play significant roles in shaping these economic trajectories.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The breakdown is as follows:
- OECD: Increase of 0.15 mb/d
- Non-OECD: Growth of approximately 1.2 mb/d
For 2027, global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecasted to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. The outlook for NGLs and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries indicates a growth of 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, averaging about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. Key observations include:
- US Gulf Coast: Losses from increased availability of heavy crude supplies
- Rotterdam: Declines in all key product margins, particularly gasoline
- Singapore: Margins fell due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
The dirty tanker spot freight rates experienced a strong start in January, supported by various factors including weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. Notable trends include:
- VLCC spot freight rates surged, with Middle East-to-East routes reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y
- Suezmax rates increased by 12%, m-o-m, driven by weather disruptions
- Aframax rates also saw significant gains, with cross-Med rates rising by 10%, m-o-m
- Clean tanker market rates showed strong performance, particularly in the East of Suez
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average. Key developments include:
- US crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d, driven by higher flows to Europe and Africa
- Japan's crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020
- China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December
- India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d despite a slight decline, m-o-m
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicates that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, totaling 2,845 mb. Key points include:
- Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m
- OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y
- Days of forward cover increased by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase from 2025. For 2027, the demand is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also a 0.6 mb/d increase. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward. The requirement for DoC crude in 2026 and 2027 highlights the importance of maintaining production levels to meet anticipated demand.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-19
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-19
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,002,950 contracts (-78,977)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,219 contracts (4.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +25,418 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 372,149 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -572,558 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
NEUTRAL
Average Polarity:
0.0
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
29
Last Updated:
2026-05-24 23:52:47
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.0
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.03
Daily:
-0.29 (-0.3%)
Weekly:
-0.27 (-0.27%)
US_10Y
4.56
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.61%)
Weekly:
-0.07 (-1.41%)
SP500
7473.47
Daily:
27.75 (0.37%)
Weekly:
70.42 (0.95%)
VIX
16.7
Daily:
-0.06 (-0.36%)
Weekly:
-1.12 (-6.29%)
GOLD
4523.2
Daily:
2.2 (0.05%)
Weekly:
16.9 (0.38%)
COPPER
6.38
Daily:
0.04 (0.58%)
Weekly:
0.21 (3.47%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$96.6
Closest Support:
$94.34
2.34% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$100.27
3.8% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$69.2
0.236
$81.07
0.382
$88.41
0.5
$94.34
Support
0.618
$100.27
Resistance
0.786
$108.72
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$133.16
1.618
$150.55
2.0
$169.76
2.618
$200.83
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$96.6
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-24 23:52:50
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.21%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | $96.81 | $88.04 | $105.57 |
| 2026-05-24 | $96.76 | $88.0 | $105.52 |
| 2026-05-25 | $95.96 | $87.2 | $104.72 |
| 2026-05-26 | $95.84 | $87.08 | $104.6 |
| 2026-05-27 | $95.93 | $87.17 | $104.69 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.21% for the next trading day (2026-05-23), reaching $96.81.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-23 and 2026-05-27.
- The average confidence interval width is ~18.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
Current market dynamics suggest a bullish sentiment as $62.31/b for the OPEC Reference Basket and a strengthening $4.47/b Brent-WTI spread indicate robust demand and supply fundamentals. The support levels may be found around the recent lows, while resistance levels could be identified near the highs of the past month. Traders should monitor the potential volatility stemming from geopolitical uncertainties and inventory levels, as these could impact short-term price movements.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With crude oil production by OPEC countries decreasing and a forecasted demand increase of 0.6 mb/d for DoC crude in 2026, producers should assess their hedging strategies accordingly. The rise in $62.31/b signals an opportunity for enhanced revenue, but the impact of inventory levels should be closely monitored, as OECD stocks are above historical averages. This could affect pricing power and necessitate adjustments in production planning.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, especially as WTI and Brent prices hover around $60.26/b and $64.73/b, respectively. The geopolitical landscape and inventory levels may pose supply reliability risks, necessitating proactive procurement and hedging strategies to mitigate cost impacts.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by strong fundamentals and increasing speculative positions. Key factors include a tightening supply-demand balance with a projected demand growth of 1.4 mb/d and a decrease in OPEC production. Analysts should be attentive to the geopolitical uncertainties and the implications of rising inventories, as these could shift the market outlook significantly.
Disclaimer: This response is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.