Iran built a government agency to control a shipping lane this week and the market somehow spent Tuesday afternoon pretending that was a peace signal. WTI swung $8 in four days — $108.99 on May 15, a -5.66% gut-punch on Wednesday when Trump said "final stages," then a 2% recovery Thursday morning when Tehran's Supreme Leader blocked uranium exports and announced the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," which is bureaucratic language for "we own this chokepoint now." The physical market never bought the peace trade for a second — international barrels are clearing $30 to $50 above NYMEX because buyers who need actual oil, not futures contracts, are paying whatever it takes to secure a cargo. Goldman has 14.5 million barrels per day curtailed from the Persian Gulf, 500 million barrels already drained from global stockpiles, and a trajectory to 1 billion barrels by June. The IEA says the market stays "severely undersupplied" through October even if the conflict ends next month. The US is holding at 445 million barrels of commercial inventory — only 2% below the 5-year average — but the government pulled a record 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week to get there, and that is a cushion being spent, not a structural fix. $100 is the pivot. A signed framework sends it to $80. Another drone on a Saudi facility sends it to $120 before the close. Until one of those happens, volatility is the only honest trade. Crude ended the week (before Memorial holiday) back down to $96 close to the 97.90 support/resistance line.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-26 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil has experienced significant volatility, swinging $8 in just four days due to geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran's recent control of a critical shipping lane. Despite temporary optimism from supposed peace signals, the physical market shows a stark reality with prices for international barrels soaring above NYMEX. Goldman reports a staggering 14.5 million barrels per day curtailed from the Persian Gulf, and the IEA warns of severe undersupply through October. The market pivots around $100, with volatility expected as traders navigate these complex dynamics.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
1/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$103.54
$0.96
WTI:
$96.6
$0.25
Spread:
$6.94
(Brent premium of $6.94)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,219
Weekly Change:
25,418
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$92.21
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BULLISH
MA(9): $100.83
MA(20): $100.78
Current Price is 92.21, 9 day MA 100.83, 20 day MA 100.78
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: 0.3773
Signal: 1.5283
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 42.41
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 42.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 14,258
Avg (20d): 254,495
Ratio: 0.06
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 17.06
%D: 30.72
Stochastic %K: 17.06, %D: 30.72. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 15.37
+DI: 18.72
-DI: 27.07
ADX: 15.37 (+DI: 18.72, -DI: 27.07). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -82.94
Williams %R: -82.94 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 110.24
Middle: 100.78
Lower: 91.32
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 110.24, Middle: 100.78, Lower: 91.32
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13702.0 | 13710.0 | 13387.0 | 12930.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6016.0 | 5901.0 | 5841.0 | 6200.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5604.0 | 5492.0 | 3369.0 | 4262.0 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16319.0 | 16399.0 | 16401.0 | 16347.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 412.0 | 409.0 | 2472.0 | 1938.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 445013.0 | 452876.0 | 441830.0 | 452390.33 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1601408.0 | 1620349.0 | 1617795.0 | 1610802.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214163.0 | 215711.0 | 224706.0 | 222873.67 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 102906.0 | 102534.0 | 103553.0 | 108849.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $103.54, change $+0.96. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $96.6, change $+0.25. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $6.94 (Brent premium of $6.94). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$103.54
0.96
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$96.6
0.25
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$6.94
Brent premium of $6.94
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase, rising by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread widened by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecast is steady at 1.2% for both years, and Japan's forecast is unchanged at 0.9%. China's growth forecast is stable at 4.5%, while India is projected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's growth remains at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's forecasts are at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d and non-OECD by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d and non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. This growth is expected to continue into 2027. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are projected to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both years. In January, crude oil production from DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies, impacting fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore also experienced a decline in margins due to elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a robust start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, with rates on the Middle East-to-East route reaching a decade-high, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax rates increased amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high. In the clean tanker market, rates showed strong performance, particularly on the Middle East-to-East route, which rose by 17%, m-o-m.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while crude exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. In OECD Europe, crude imports declined, driven by lower flows from Kazakhstan. Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports hit a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. This level is 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days, reflecting a stable supply situation.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is projected at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. For 2027, the demand remains at 43.6 mb/d, also reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase. The supply-demand gap analysis indicates that world demand for 2026 is forecast at 106.5 mb/d, while non-DoC supply is projected at 63.5 mb/d, leading to a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.4 | 43.6 |
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-19
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-19
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,002,950 contracts (-78,977)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,219 contracts (4.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +25,418 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 372,149 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -572,558 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
34
Last Updated:
2026-05-26 23:53:32
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.1
Daily:
-0.22 (-0.22%)
Weekly:
-0.2 (-0.2%)
US_10Y
4.49
Daily:
-0.07 (-1.43%)
Weekly:
-0.17 (-3.73%)
SP500
7519.12
Daily:
45.65 (0.61%)
Weekly:
165.51 (2.25%)
VIX
17.01
Daily:
0.42 (2.53%)
Weekly:
-0.43 (-2.47%)
GOLD
4503.8
Daily:
-17.2 (-0.38%)
Weekly:
-2.5 (-0.06%)
COPPER
6.43
Daily:
0.09 (1.42%)
Weekly:
0.27 (4.33%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$92.21
Closest Support:
$88.41
4.12% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$94.34
2.31% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$69.2
0.236
$81.07
0.382
$88.41
Support
0.5
$94.34
Resistance
0.618
$100.27
0.786
$108.72
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$133.16
1.618
$150.55
2.0
$169.76
2.618
$200.83
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$93.89
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-26 23:53:34
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.74%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | $93.19 | $84.86 | $101.52 |
| 2026-05-28 | $93.28 | $84.95 | $101.61 |
| 2026-05-29 | $93.29 | $84.96 | $101.62 |
| 2026-05-30 | $93.26 | $84.93 | $101.59 |
| 2026-05-31 | $93.02 | $84.69 | $101.35 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.74% for the next trading day (2026-05-27), reaching $93.19.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2026-05-27 and 2026-05-31.
- The average confidence interval width is ~17.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent data indicates a bullish sentiment among managed money traders, as evidenced by the increase in net long positions. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $6.94, reflecting differing supply/demand dynamics and providing potential trading opportunities.
Price movements show that the ICE Brent has risen to an average of $64.73/b, while NYMEX WTI is at $60.26/b. Traders should be cautious of potential volatility due to geopolitical factors and weather disruptions affecting supply chains.
Watch for support levels around $60.00 for WTI and $64.00 for Brent, with resistance levels at $65.00 and $67.00 respectively. The convergence of bullish positioning and strong backwardation in forward curves suggests potential upward price momentum.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The balance of supply and demand indicates a stable outlook for production planning, with demand for DoC crude expected to rise by 0.6 mb/d in 2026. Producers should consider adjusting their output to align with this anticipated demand increase.
The decline in crude oil production from DoC countries, which fell by 439 tb/d m-o-m, may create opportunities for producers not participating in the DoC to capture market share. However, they should also be mindful of inventory levels, as OECD commercial stocks have risen, indicating potential oversupply risks.
Implementing effective hedging strategies will be crucial to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, especially given the current bearish sentiment reflected in news articles.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The recent increase in crude prices, with WTI averaging $60.26/b, could lead to higher procurement costs.
Supply reliability may be affected by geopolitical uncertainties and weather disruptions, as indicated by the strong performance of tanker freight rates. The US crude exports have also risen, which may impact local supply availability.
It would be prudent to consider hedging strategies to protect against rising costs, particularly as refining margins are under pressure due to seasonal demand and increased feedstock prices.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture, with bearish sentiment dominating news analysis despite bullish positioning among managed money traders. The fundamentals indicate stable demand growth, particularly in non-OECD regions, while supply from DoC countries is tightening.
The increase in Brent-WTI spread suggests that market dynamics are shifting, influenced by both geopolitical factors and transportation costs. Analysts should monitor these developments closely, as they could lead to significant shifts in pricing and market behavior.
Overall, the outlook remains