Crude Oil Radar

OPEC Market Analysis

Crude Oil Price Movements

In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract rose by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract rose by $0.83/b, m-o-m, to average $62.79/b.

The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b. The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. Oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals supported front-month contracts. The forward curve for GME Oman was little changed, m-o-m. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.

World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

• US economic growth forecast is revised up slightly to 2.2% for 2026, but remains at 2% for 2027.
• Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027.
• Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027.
• China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.5% for both 2026 and 2027.
• India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027.
• Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027.
• Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.

Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories.

World Oil Demand Trends

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.

• OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d next year, while the non-OECD is forecast to increase by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

Key demand drivers include economic recovery in emerging markets and seasonal factors, while constraints may arise from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.

World Oil Supply Analysis

Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, US, and Argentina.

• In 2027, non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
• NGLs and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average about 8.8 mb/d.
• Recent DoC crude production trends indicate a decrease of 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.

Product Markets & Refining Operations

In January, refining margins declined in all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand-side pressures.

• In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), losses stemmed from the bottom section of the barrel as increased availability of heavy crude supplies weighed on fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads.
• In Rotterdam, all key product margins declined, with gasoline leading the decline, followed by fuel oil.
• In Singapore, the decline was driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies in the region.

Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics

Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start to the year in January, supported by weather disruptions, geopolitical uncertainties, and steady loading activity.

• VLCC spot freight rates began in 2026 with an exceptionally strong performance, up by 64%, y-o-y.
• Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions in the Atlantic basin, with rates on the USGC-to-Europe route up by 12%, m-o-m.
• Aframax spot freight rates also experienced a strong performance, with cross-Med Aframax spot freight rates rising by 10%, m-o-m.
• In the clean tanker market, rates on the Middle East-to-East route were up by 17%, m-o-m.

Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows

US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, remaining in line with the latest five-year average.

• US crude exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 4.2 mb/d.
• In Japan, crude imports surged, averaging just under 3 mb/d in December, the highest since March 2020.
• China’s crude imports surged to a record high in December, averaging 13.2 mb/d.
• India’s crude imports remained at elevated levels, averaging 5.1 mb/d.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary December 2025 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb.

• OECD commercial stocks were 89.9 mb higher, y-o-y, and 44.1 mb above the latest five-year average.
• Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb, m-o-m.
• OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which was 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y.

Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook

The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment of 43.6 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.

The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap for DoC crude, with the requirement for 2026 at 43.0 mb/d against a non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, leading to a potential surplus. The market balance implications suggest a need for strategic production decisions to align supply with the projected demand growth.