WTI is trading below $90 and the market is doing something it almost never does: pricing two completely opposite futures at the same time. On one side of the ledger you have the most severe global oil supply disruption since the 1970s — the IEA calling the market "severely undersupplied through Q3," Goldman counting 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf curtailment, and physical cargoes clearing $30 to $50 above the paper price because actual buyers of actual barrels cannot get them through a strait that is running at 5% of its normal 138-vessel-per-day throughput. On the other side you have Rubio telling reporters a deal is "days away," two non-Iranian supertankers clearing the chokepoint on Tuesday for the first time in a week, and an options market so confused about direction that Capital Economics can find a 37% implied probability of Brent still above $100 three months from now sitting right next to a futures curve pointing to $78 on a signed framework. The problem is both of those numbers are correct — they just require different futures to get there. What we know for certain is this: the paper market is trading tweets and the physical market is trading barrels, and they stopped agreeing with each other about six weeks ago. Until one of those markets blinks, the only honest trade is the volatility itself.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-28 23:54
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil prices are caught in a conundrum, trading below $90 due to a clash of influences. On one hand, the IEA warns of the most significant global supply disruptions since the 1970s, with physical cargoes trading at a premium amid tight supplies. On the other, optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran deal is creating downward pressure, with some futures suggesting prices could drop to $78. As the market grapples with these conflicting signals, volatility remains the only certainty—so buckle up!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$94.29
$5.29
WTI:
$88.68
$5.21
Spread:
$5.61
(Brent premium of $5.61)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
98,219
Weekly Change:
25,418
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$87.77
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $98.16
MA(20): $99.34
Current Price is 87.77, 9 day MA 98.16, 20 day MA 99.34
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.149
Signal: 0.7044
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 38.25
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 38.25 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 12,840
Avg (20d): 256,919
Ratio: 0.05
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 1.81
%D: 10.38
Stochastic %K: 1.81, %D: 10.38. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 17.15
+DI: 16.7
-DI: 28.81
ADX: 17.15 (+DI: 16.7, -DI: 28.81). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -98.19
Williams %R: -98.19 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BREAKOUT LOWER
Upper: 110.81
Middle: 99.34
Lower: 87.87
Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 110.81, Middle: 99.34, Lower: 87.87
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13715.0 | 13702.0 | 13392.0 | 12900.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5212.0 | 6016.0 | 6089.0 | 6779.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4440.0 | 5604.0 | 3507.0 | 4480.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16971.0 | 16319.0 | 16490.0 | 16525.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 772.0 | 412.0 | 2582.0 | 2298.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 441686.0 | 445013.0 | 443158.0 | 451569.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1584032.0 | 1601408.0 | 1623569.0 | 1618182.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 211591.0 | 214163.0 | 225522.0 | 222665.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 100799.0 | 102906.0 | 104132.0 | 109784.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $94.29, change $-5.29. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $88.68, change $-5.21. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $5.61 (Brent premium of $5.61). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$94.29
5.29
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$88.68
5.21
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.61
Brent premium of $5.61
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread increased by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with the front end of the curves for both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This shift was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain stable at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while it remains at 2.0% for 2027. In the Eurozone, growth forecasts are steady at 1.2% for both years. Japan's growth is projected at 0.9%, and China's at 4.5% for both years. India's growth outlook remains strong at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil's growth is forecasted at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's is at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
Trade normalization and monetary policy impacts are expected to influence these growth trajectories, contributing to a stable macroeconomic environment conducive to oil demand.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. The OECD is expected to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by approximately 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 1.2 mb/d.
Key demand drivers include economic growth in emerging markets, while constraints may arise from geopolitical uncertainties and potential shifts in energy policies.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. The US Gulf Coast experienced losses, particularly in the bottom section of the barrel, as increased heavy crude supply impacted fuel oil and gasoil crack spreads. In Rotterdam, all key product margins fell, with gasoline leading the decline. Singapore saw a similar trend driven by elevated gasoline and jet/kerosene supplies.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates reached the highest level for the month in at least a decade, up by 64% y-o-y. Suezmax rates rose amid weather disruptions, while Aframax rates also performed strongly, reaching a 10-year high for the month. In the clean tanker market, rates were up by 17% m-o-m on the Middle East-to-East route.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d in January, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose by almost 0.2 mb/d to 4.2 mb/d. Product exports from the US averaged 7.0 mb/d, down from previous months. In Japan, crude imports surged to just under 3 mb/d, the highest since March 2020. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d in December, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb, which is 89.9 mb higher y-o-y and 44.1 mb above the five-year average. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, 75.5 mb higher y-o-y, while total product stocks reached 1,481 mb, 14.4 mb higher y-o-y.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, reflecting a 0.6 mb/d increase from 2025. For 2027, the demand is projected at 43.6 mb/d, also a 0.6 mb/d increase. The analysis of the supply-demand balance indicates a significant gap between world demand and non-DoC supply.
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 63.5 | 43.6 |
The analysis reveals a supply-demand gap that necessitates strategic production decisions moving forward. The DoC requirement for 2026 indicates a need for sustained production levels to meet the growing demand, emphasizing the importance of cooperation among participating countries.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-19
Managed Money
98,219
Change: +25,418
4.9% of OI
Producer/Merchant
372,149
Change: +14,742
18.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-572,558
Change: -19,017
-28.6% of OI
Open Interest
2,002,950
Change: -78,977
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-19
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,002,950 contracts (-78,977)
Managed Money Net Position: 98,219 contracts (4.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +25,418 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 372,149 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -572,558 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
69
Last Updated:
2026-05-28 23:53:11
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.1
Daily:
-0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly:
-0.09 (-0.09%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.58%)
Weekly:
-0.13 (-2.86%)
SP500
7563.63
Daily:
43.27 (0.58%)
Weekly:
117.91 (1.58%)
VIX
15.74
Daily:
-0.55 (-3.38%)
Weekly:
-0.96 (-5.75%)
GOLD
4528.3
Daily:
80.8 (1.82%)
Weekly:
-11.5 (-0.25%)
COPPER
6.41
Daily:
0.11 (1.7%)
Weekly:
0.16 (2.49%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$87.77
Closest Support:
$84.18
4.09% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$90.93
3.6% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$73.28
0.236
$84.18
Support
0.382
$90.93
Resistance
0.5
$96.38
0.618
$101.83
0.786
$109.59
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$132.05
1.618
$148.03
2.0
$165.68
2.618
$194.23
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$88.9
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-28 23:53:13
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.42%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $89.27 | $81.84 | $96.7 |
| 2026-05-30 | $89.08 | $81.65 | $96.51 |
| 2026-05-31 | $88.75 | $81.32 | $96.18 |
| 2026-06-01 | $88.24 | $80.81 | $95.67 |
| 2026-06-02 | $88.31 | $80.88 | $95.74 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.42% for the next trading day (2026-05-29), reaching $89.27.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.1% between 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent price movements indicate a bullish sentiment with the OPEC Reference Basket rising to an average of $62.31/b and significant increases in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI. The strengthening of the Brent-WTI spread to $4.47/b reflects increasing global demand pressures relative to U.S. supply dynamics.
Traders should monitor the volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainties and potential supply outages. The Fibonacci retracement levels may provide critical support and resistance points, particularly as prices fluctuate around the $60-$65/b range.
With speculative sentiment turning bullish, there may be short-term opportunities for traders to capitalize on upward price momentum, especially if managed money positions continue to increase.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market conditions suggest a need for producers to reassess their production planning and hedging strategies. With crude oil production by OPEC nations decreasing, and a forecasted demand increase for DoC crude to 43.0 mb/d in 2026, there is potential for tighter supply conditions.
The inventory levels indicate an increase in product stocks, which may affect pricing strategies. Producers should consider the implications of inventory balances and the $60-$65/b price range for their operational strategies.
The market sentiment remains cautious; thus, effective risk management will be crucial to navigate potential price fluctuations.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should remain vigilant regarding potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices are showing an upward trend. The recent increase in crude oil prices to an average of $64.73/b for Brent could lead to higher procurement costs.
Supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical tensions and potential inventory drawdowns. It is advisable for consumers to evaluate their procurement strategies and consider hedging options to mitigate cost volatility.
The balance of supply and demand indicates a tightening market, which could further impact pricing and availability of refined products.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by tightening supply conditions and increasing demand forecasts. The OPEC production cuts and rising global demand suggest a potential shift towards higher prices, with the Brent-WTI spread indicating diverging supply dynamics.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the fundamental balance, particularly the increasing demand for DoC crude and the impact of geopolitical factors on supply chains. The overall market sentiment is currently bearish, which may influence trader behavior and speculative positioning.
Continuous monitoring of CFTC positioning data and news sentiment will be crucial for identifying potential shifts in market outlook and price direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.