WTI is trading below $90 and the market is doing something it almost never does: pricing two completely opposite futures at the same time. On one side of the ledger you have the most severe global oil supply disruption since the 1970s — the IEA calling the market "severely undersupplied through Q3," Goldman counting 14.5 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf curtailment, and physical cargoes clearing $30 to $50 above the paper price because actual buyers of actual barrels cannot get them through a strait that is running at 5% of its normal 138-vessel-per-day throughput. On the other side you have Rubio telling reporters a deal is "days away," two non-Iranian supertankers clearing the chokepoint on Tuesday for the first time in a week, and an options market so confused about direction that Capital Economics can find a 37% implied probability of Brent still above $100 three months from now sitting right next to a futures curve pointing to $78 on a signed framework. The problem is both of those numbers are correct — they just require different futures to get there. What we know for certain is this: the paper market is trading tweets and the physical market is trading barrels, and they stopped agreeing with each other about six weeks ago. Until one of those markets blinks, the only honest trade is the volatility itself.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2026-05-29 23:53
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is caught in a peculiar tug-of-war, trading below $90 amid severe global supply disruptions, with the IEA deeming the market "severely undersupplied." Despite this, optimism surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran deal pressures prices down as traders face a dual narrative—physical markets are strong while the paper market is swayed by speculation. This volatility signals a complex landscape; keep an eye on logistics and geopolitical developments as both markets vie for control. Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bullish
Score:
2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: SELL |
Long: BUY
International Prices
Brent:
$93.71
$0.58
WTI:
$88.9
$0.22
Spread:
$4.81
(Brent premium of $4.81)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
79,924
Weekly Change:
18,295
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
2
(Moderately Bullish)
Current Price:
$87.76
Signal:
Moderately Bullish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $96.32
MA(20): $98.53
Current Price is 87.76, 9 day MA 96.32, 20 day MA 98.53
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BEARISH
MACD: -1.6686
Signal: 0.2442
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bearish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 38.28
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 38.28 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 242,918
Avg (20d): 263,080
Ratio: 0.92
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
OVERSOLD
%K: 6.1
%D: 6.1
Stochastic %K: 6.1, %D: 6.1. Signal: oversold
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 18.0
+DI: 15.5
-DI: 27.89
ADX: 18.0 (+DI: 15.5, -DI: 27.89). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
OVERSOLD
Value: -93.9
Williams %R: -93.9 (oversold)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 110.54
Middle: 98.53
Lower: 86.52
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 110.54, Middle: 98.53, Lower: 86.52
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13715.0 | 13702.0 | 13392.0 | 12900.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5212.0 | 6016.0 | 6089.0 | 6779.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4440.0 | 5604.0 | 3507.0 | 4480.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16971.0 | 16319.0 | 16490.0 | 16525.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 772.0 | 412.0 | 2582.0 | 2298.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 441686.0 | 445013.0 | 443158.0 | 451569.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1584032.0 | 1601408.0 | 1623569.0 | 1618182.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 211591.0 | 214163.0 | 225522.0 | 222665.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 100799.0 | 102906.0 | 104132.0 | 109784.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JUL 26) settled at $93.71, change $-0.58. WTI crude (JUL 26) settled at $88.9, change $+0.22. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.81 (Brent premium of $4.81). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$93.71
0.58
(JUL 26)
WTI Crude
$88.9
0.22
(JUL 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.81
Brent premium of $4.81
OPEC Analysis
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Crude Oil Price Movements
In January, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $0.61/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $62.31/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $3.10/b, m-o-m, to average $64.73/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract rose by $2.39/b, m-o-m, to average $60.26/b. The GME Oman front-month contract also saw an increase of $0.83/b, m-o-m, averaging $62.79/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread rose by $0.71/b, m-o-m, to average $4.47/b.
The forward curves of all major crude benchmarks strengthened, with both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving into stronger backwardation. This was supported by oil supply outages, easing selling pressure from speculators, and robust physical market fundamentals. Speculative sentiment turned bullish, with hedge funds and other money managers sharply increasing their net long positions.
World Economy & Macroeconomic Backdrop
The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecast has been slightly revised up to 2.2% for 2026, while remaining at 2.0% for 2027. The Eurozone's growth forecast is stable at 1.2% for both years, and Japan's forecast remains at 0.9%. China is projected to grow at 4.5% for both years, while India is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Brazil's growth forecast is steady at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027, while Russia's economic growth is projected at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027.
World Oil Demand Trends
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 remains at 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to increase by 0.15 mb/d, while the non-OECD is projected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, with the OECD growing by 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD increasing by about 1.2 mb/d.
World Oil Supply Analysis
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in both 2026 and 2027, primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries are expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026 and 2027. In January, crude oil production by DoC countries decreased by 439 tb/d, m-o-m, to average about 42.45 mb/d.
Product Markets & Refining Operations
In January, refining margins declined across all reported trading hubs due to stronger feedstock prices and seasonal demand pressures. In the US Gulf Coast, losses were driven by increased availability of heavy crude supplies. In Rotterdam and Singapore, key product margins also declined, with gasoline leading the drop.
Tanker Market & Freight Dynamics
Dirty tanker spot freight rates had a strong start in January, supported by weather disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. VLCC spot freight rates surged, with the Middle East-to-East route reaching the highest level in at least a decade, up by 64%, y-o-y. Suezmax and Aframax rates also saw significant increases, reflecting strong demand and weather-related disruptions.
Crude & Refined Products Trade Flows
In January, US crude imports averaged 6.3 mb/d, consistent with the five-year average, while exports rose to 4.2 mb/d. In Europe, crude imports declined due to lower flows from Kazakhstan, while Japan's crude imports surged to nearly 3 mb/d. China's crude imports reached a record high of 13.2 mb/d, while India's crude imports remained elevated at 5.1 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary December 2025 data indicate that OECD commercial oil inventories rose by 6.5 mb, m-o-m, to 2,845 mb. Crude stocks fell by 2.1 mb, while product stocks increased by 8.6 mb. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,363 mb, which is 75.5 mb higher, y-o-y. Days of forward cover rose by 0.7 days, m-o-m, to 62.8 days.
Supply-Demand Balance & Market Outlook
The demand for DoC crude in 2026 remains at 43.0 mb/d, which is about 0.6 mb/d higher than that of 2025. The demand for DoC crude in 2027 is also unchanged at 43.6 mb/d. The following table summarizes the supply-demand balance for the upcoming years:
| Year | World Demand (mb/d) | Non-DoC Supply (mb/d) | DoC Requirement (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 106.5 | 63.5 | 43.0 |
| 2027 | 107.9 | 64.3 | 43.6 |
The analysis indicates a supply-demand gap, with world demand for 2026 at 106.5 mb/d against non-DoC supply of 63.5 mb/d, resulting in a DoC requirement of 43.0 mb/d. This gap highlights the need for strategic production decisions moving forward to ensure market stability.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2026-05-26
Managed Money
79,924
Change: -18,295
4.0% of OI
Producer/Merchant
366,141
Change: -6,008
18.3% of OI
Swap Dealers
-561,614
Change: +10,944
-28.0% of OI
Open Interest
2,003,795
Change: 845
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2026-05-26
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 2,003,795 contracts (+845)
Managed Money Net Position: 79,924 contracts (4.0% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -18,295 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 366,141 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -561,614 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
67
Last Updated:
2026-05-29 23:52:44
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (1 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.94
Daily:
-0.08 (-0.08%)
Weekly:
-0.38 (-0.38%)
US_10Y
4.45
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-0.11 (-2.3%)
SP500
7580.06
Daily:
16.43 (0.22%)
Weekly:
106.59 (1.43%)
VIX
15.32
Daily:
-0.42 (-2.67%)
Weekly:
-1.27 (-7.66%)
GOLD
4569.9
Daily:
70.6 (1.57%)
Weekly:
48.9 (1.08%)
COPPER
6.39
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.03%)
Weekly:
0.05 (0.82%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$87.76
Closest Support:
$85.47
2.61% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$91.97
4.8% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$74.97
0.236
$85.47
Support
0.382
$91.97
Resistance
0.5
$97.23
0.618
$102.48
0.786
$109.95
1.0
$119.48
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$131.59
1.618
$146.99
2.0
$163.99
2.618
$191.5
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$88.9
Forecast Generated:
2026-05-29 23:52:46
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.41%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $89.27 | $81.83 | $96.7 |
| 2026-05-30 | $89.07 | $81.64 | $96.51 |
| 2026-05-31 | $88.74 | $81.31 | $96.17 |
| 2026-06-01 | $88.23 | $80.8 | $95.66 |
| 2026-06-02 | $88.3 | $80.87 | $95.73 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.41% for the next trading day (2026-05-29), reaching $89.27.
- The 5-day forecast suggests a generally downward trend, moving about -1.1% between 2026-05-29 and 2026-06-02.
- The average confidence interval width is ~16.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Weak bullish signal, high uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bullish sentiment in the crude oil market, as indicated by the increase in managed money net positions, suggests potential price strength. The $64.73 for ICE Brent and $60.26 for NYMEX WTI indicate upward momentum. The Brent-WTI spread at $4.81 reflects ongoing supply dynamics, with Brent maintaining a premium due to geopolitical factors and transportation costs.
Traders should watch for resistance levels around $65 for Brent and $61 for WTI, while support levels can be anticipated at $62 and $58, respectively. The current volatility may present short-term opportunities, particularly in reaction to geopolitical news and inventory reports.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With global oil demand growth forecasted to remain stable at 1.4 mb/d, producers should consider this in their production planning. The decline in OPEC production by 439 tb/d indicates potential tightening in the market, which could support prices.
Given the current bearish sentiment in news analysis, it may be prudent for producers to implement hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and inventory levels. Keeping an eye on inventory trends, particularly the increase in OECD product stocks, will be crucial for operational adjustments.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices hover around $60.26 and $64.73, respectively. The bearish market sentiment may lead to price volatility, impacting procurement strategies.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and the current state of inventories, particularly the increase in OECD product stocks, could affect supply reliability. Consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that include forward contracts to lock in prices and hedge against potential spikes.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mix of bullish positioning from speculators and a bearish sentiment reflected in news analysis. Key driving factors include stable global demand growth forecasts and a slight uptick in US economic growth, which may support demand.
However, the increase in inventories and OPEC production cuts suggest a balancing act ahead. Analysts should monitor the geopolitical landscape and its potential impacts on both supply and prices, as well as the implications of the current ML price predictions that may indicate shifts in market dynamics.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.